DraftKings MLB Picks For August 9
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For August 9
The Rangers have a matinee at Coors today, so there are only 14 games in the main tournament. We have excitement though. Four pitchers top $11,000, and eight more are above $8,000. Who should we pay up for? Who are the bargains? Let’s check out the past stats for some assistance.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Steven Matz has never faced the Diamondbacks. He got knocked around by the Yankees his last time out, and the Snakes are more formidable than the Yanks. It may be best to avoid him with so many other options available.
Zach Neal has never faced the Orioles, but you don’t want to throw a guy out there against the O’s who sports a 5.25 ERA. Even if he does oppose Miley.
Trevor Bauer has never faced the Nationals, but considering he has to face off with Scherzer tonight, there appears to be safer options elsewhere.
Kenta Maeda has never faced the Phillies. He has been very consistent in his first trip through the majors though. He has allowed more than four runs just once, and he has at least five strikeouts in in 10 of his last 12 starts. He is good enough to use against the Phils.
Vincent Velasquez has never faced the Dodgers, and this seems like a decent matchup, but Velasquez left his last start with a blister issue. Also, the Phillies are going to limit his innings the rest of the way. It is highly unlikely that he goes past six innings no matter what, which really limits his upside.
Luis Perdomo has never faced the Pirates. Perdomo has had a rough start to his career. In 12 starts, he has not given up less than two runs. He has given up four runs or more seven times en route to a 6.67 ERA. Leave this alone.
Chad Kuhl has never faced the Padres. He has a respectable 4.19 ERA, but has only struck out 13 batters in three starts. His risk outweighs any potential reward.
Wade LeBlanc has never faced the Tigers, but you don’t want to chance it with all of that right handed power in that lineup.
Tyrell Jenkins has never faced the Brewers, but his lack of strikeouts (just 17 in eight starts) make him a low end option at best. Even with a good matchup like the Brewers.
Jered Weaver has never faced the Cubs. You don’t want to start now. He has a 5.11 ERA this year, and is not the pitcher he used to be. The Cubs aren’t the team they used to be either, which is bad news for Weaver.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Max Scherzer ($12,900): Okay, so Scherzer deserves mentioning every day that he pitches. The Indians are only hitting .196 off of him in 189 at bats with only two homers, but they have scored 19 runs. That might have kept him out of the elite tier if it weren’t for the poor past histories of the other starters tonight. He has a pedestrian total of 43 strikeouts, but most of that was before he went to Washington. He has been more dominant there. If I’m going to spend that much of my budget on a pitcher, I want a sure thing. Scherzer could be. He is a threat for a no-hitter every time he takes the mound. The two Indians that have done the most damage, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes (a combined 18-51 with a homer and 11 RBI), are out. Scherzer may not have his best night, but he should have the best night of any pitcher going.
Honorable Mention:
Drew Smyly ($9,300): Smyly has a pretty good history against the Blue Jays, with one notable exception (more on that later). He has held the Jays to a .208 average in 96 at bats with 26 strikeouts, but they have already hit seven home runs off of him. The lack of baserunners has limited the damage, but that is why he is not an elite option tonight. He is a sneaky source of strikeouts, but here is risk involved.
Hector Santiago ($8,000): Santiago has stellar career stats against Houston. They are hitting just .173 off of Santiago in 110 at bats with three homers, only six runs, and 24 strikeouts. No Astro has really managed to hit him well. Santiago is an intriguing mid-level option, even though his first start as a Twin didn’t go very well.
Dark Horses:
Mike Fiers ($6,900): Collin McHugh slowed down the hot Twins offense last night. There is a good chance Fiers can do it again if you trust past stats. The Twins are only hitting .236 in 72 at bats against Fiers with a homer, seven runs, and 15 strikeouts. That strikeout total is much higher than you can usually get from someone priced in this range. There is a lot of potential here.
Edinson Volquez ($5,200): When you compare the opposing hitter’s stats of Volquez and Sale, Volquez is a long way ahead of Sale. Seriously. The White Sox are only hitting .240 against Volquez in 150 at bats with only two homers and 12 RBI while striking out 31 times. Sale will get more strikeouts, but Volquez could have a nice game as well opposing him.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,700) is 12-28(.429) with two walks, two doubles, and four solo home runs off of Rick Porcello. Brett Gardner ($4,100) is 8-29(.276) with a pair of walks, a double, and a solo homer off of Porcello. Chase Headley ($3,000) is 5-16(.313) with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI. These are all cheap stacking options. Fortunately for Porcello, Aaron Hicks and Dustin Ackley are out. The two are a combined 10-33 with three homers and six RBI against him.
Brandon Finnegan dominated the Cardinals on Thursday, pitching eight shutout innings. However, the Cards still have five homers and 15 RBI against him in just 83 at bats. Matt Carpenter ($4,200) is 3-9 with two walks, two homers, and five RBI against Finnegan. Brandon Moss ($4,000) is 4-10 with a homer and four RBI. Stephen Piscotty ($4,300) only has one hit in ten at bats, but it was a three run homer.
Mike Leake has been awful against his former team. That means its stack time! Ramon Cabera ($2,700) is 2-4 with a double and three RBI. Adam Duvall ($4,500) is 3-8 with a walk, two homers, and four RBI against Leake. Brandon Phillips ($4,300) is 4-6 with two doubles and a RBI. Eugenio Suarez ($3,600) is 2-5 with a pair of doubles and a pair of RBI. Billy Hamilton ($4,900) is 4-5 with a solo homer. This team just scorched Leake for seven runs on Thursday. Can they do it again?
The Royals have actually hit Chris Sale pretty well. Lorenzo Cain ($3,300) is 17-49(.347) with four doubles, three homers, and eight RBI against Sale. Alcides Escobar ($2,200) is 22-60(.367) with two walks, a double, and a solo homer. Even lefty Eric Hosmer($3,300) has gone 14-39(.359) with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Sale. Salvador Perez ($2,400) is 14-46(.304) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Sale. Both Kendrys Morales and Paulo Orlando have taken Sale deep and driven in five despite a combined 6-25 mark.
Matt Moore spent his entire career in the A.L., but the Rays played the Marlins every year in interleague play, so they are very familiar with him. Marcell Ozuna ($4,500) is 5-6 with a double and a solo homer against Moore. Dee Gordon is 1-2 with a double and a walk. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,700) is 3-8 with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Ichiro Suzuki ($3,800) is 11-24(.458) with a double and two RBI, but his playing time may decrease dramatically now that he has his 3,000th hit.
Zack Greinke is making his return from the DL against a team that has nine homers and 29 RBI off of him. Asdrubal Cabrera, David Wright, and Lucas Duda are all out, so the rest of the stack options are lottery tickets. Curtis Granderson ($3,500) is only 10-52(.192), but he has three walks, two doubles, two triples, a homer, and three RBI. James Loney ($3,000) is only 2-10, but he has two walks and a solo homer. Neil Walker ($3,700) is 5-24(.208), but he has a walk, a double, three homers, and six RBI against Greinke.
Next: More Notes For 8-9
Lonnie Chisenhall ($2,400) will be a roll of the dice for sure. He is only 6-28(.214) against Max Scherzer, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI off of him. If you need to go cheap, he is a calculated lottery ticket.
Carlos Correa ($4,300) is only 2-9 against Hector Santiago, but both of those hits are solo homers.
Nelson Cruz ($4,900), Chris Iannetta ($2,600), and Leonys Martin ($3,100) all hit solo homers against Daniel Norris in his only start against the Mariners.
Freddie Freeman ($5,200) is 3-10 with two walks and a solo homer against Wily Peralta. Matt Kemp ($4,800) has crushed Peralta. He is 7-14 with a double, a homer, and five RBI against Peralta.
Melky Cabrera ($3,700) is 9-31(.290) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Edinson Volquez.
Remember Luis Severino? David Ortiz ($5,100) sure does. Papi is 3-5 with three solo homers off of him. Dustin Pedroia ($4,100) is 1-3 with a two run homer.
Hunter Pence ($3,400) is 3-9 with a triple, a homer, and three RBI against Tom Koehler. Denard Span ($4,300) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a triple, and a RBI. The only reprieve that Koehler gets is that Ruben Tejada is at AAA. He has seven RBI against Koehler in just 24 at bats!
Yunel Escobar ($2,900) is 11-30(.367) with three walks, three doubles, and four RBI against John Lackey. Mike Trout ($5,200) is 1-3 with a solo shot off Lackey.
Brian Dozier ($5,200) is 4-14(.286) with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Mike Fiers. Eduardo Escobar ($3,100) is 2-5 with two walks, a triple, and a pair of RBI.
Josh Donaldson ($4,400) is 8-17(.471) with a walk, three doubles, three homers, and four RBI against Drew Smyly. Michael Saunders ($3,600) is also hitting Smyly well. He is 3-8 with a double, two homers, and three RBI off of him.
Ben Zobrist ($5,100) is 8-27(.296) with a walk, three doubles, a triple, a homer, and four RBI against Jered Weaver.
Yonder Alonso ($2,700) is 4-14(.286) with a homer and three RBI against Wade Miley. If Billy Butler ($3,400) is in the lineup, he may be worth a look. Butler is 3-11(.273) with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Miley. Khris Davis ($4,300) is 2-5 with a homer and three RBI as well.
Corey Dickerson ($2,800) is perfect with three singles and a RBI off of Marco Estrada.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!