David Phelps has been exceptional out of the bullpen for the Marlins this season. Now forced back into the rotation, could Phelps be a deep waiver wire add?
The Miami Marlins are smack dab in the middle of a heated N.L. Wildcard race, an amazing feat considering the injuries that the team has had to withstand. It started when prized reliever, Carter Caps, went down with a torn UCL in Spring Training.
With only stud closer A.J. Ramos already in tow, the bullpen seemingly took a big hit with Capps’ absence. But, in comes David Phelps, who has seemingly stepped right in for Capps, and has been tremendous late in games.
Phelps started in his career with the New York Yankees, being drafted in the 14th round out of Notre Dame in 2008. The Yankees had him back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, and he proved to be a serviceable in either role. The Yankees shipped him to the Marlins in 2015, where he was inserted into Miami’s rotation and posted a 4.50 ERA over 19 starts.
In fantasy terms, Phelps has been nothing more than a streaming option. However, as the Marlins brought in additions to the rotation and with the lack of bullpen depth entering this season, Phelps was sent permanently to the bullpen.
He responded with a 2.48 ERA, 22 HLDS, and 86 K. He has easily been pitching the best of his career, and has rewarded those fantasy owners in leagues that reward setup men.
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Just as Phelps had settled into his role, even with the acquisition of Fernando Rodney, the Marlins were hit with injuries once again. After Adam Conley and Wei-Yin Chen went down, the Marlins were forced to re-insert Phelps back into the rotation. He has started three games this season, all coming in the past three weeks, and has surrendered 3 ER, and has 17 K over 14 innings of work.
His three starts have all been on the road, and came against the Rockies, Giants, and Reds. The Giants and Reds have been scuffling, but he did blank the Rockies at Coors Field, which is a feat in itself. A major part of his success this season, has been the rise in his K rate. Coming out of the bullpen tends to skew SO/9, but to see a five strikeout increase from last season is impressive.
The interesting part of Phelps’ arsenal, is that he features three types of fastballs and a changeup. Out of the bullpen, his fastball has clocked in the mid-90s, with his changeup coming in at the low-80s. As a starter, Phelps’ fastball velocity would hover around 91 mph, so to see an increase out of the bullpen is not a foreign concept, considering that is usually the case when starters move to the bullpen. But, the inclusion of his four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter, along with changeup, allows him to change speeds and movement at will.
During his last start versus Cincinnati, Phelps was able to strike out eight, which is obviously a season high. While fantasy owners should not expect much more K upside, there is nothing wrong with a waiver wire add that should offer at least five strikeouts a start. Phelps also has the advantage of a soft spot in the Marlins schedule, if Phelps were to take the bump every fifth day moving forward, his next four starts would come against the Pirates, Royals, Mets, and Phillies.
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Those offenses are not exactly the best in the baseball, helping Phelps fantasy value over the next few weeks. Phelps is 29 years old and his ceiling is not all that high, but with the fantasy playoffs are quickly approaching, Phelps looks like a quality waiver wire add.
All of his peripherals back up his career year, so armed with favorable matchups and an arsenal that has shut opponents down, fantasy owners should give Phelps a look off the wire.