DraftKings MLB Picks For August 26
We have a full slate of games tonight, however, only four of the pitchers top the $10,000 price. Should we pay for one or two of them, or go cheap and spend on hitting for our DraftKings lineup? Let’s check out what the past stats say.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Jarred Cosart faced the Marlins once as a member of the Astros. Giancarlo Stanton hit him hard in that game, but most of the rest of the current Marlins never got a hack at him. Mostly because he played for them the last two years. Cosart has posted a 3.15 ERA in four starts with San Diego. He also deserves consideration because he has a 2.49 career ERA in 79.2 innings at Marlins Park.
Joel De La Cruz has never faced the Giants. He has posted a 4.47 ERA in seven starts and seven relief appearances. On a full night, there is no reason to take this kind of risk.
Rookie Luke Weaver has been decent in his first two big league starts. The Cubs chased him after four innings, and he turned in five innings of three run ball against the Phillies on Saturday. Oakland looks like a nice matchup, just don’t expect Weaver to go very deep into the game.
Luis Cessa baffled the Angels in his first major league start after eight relief appearances. He pitched six shutout innings, giving up only three hits and a walk to go with five strikeouts. Want to bet on him doing it to the Orioles? Me either….
Braden Shipley has never faced the Reds, and while you may think this is a good matchup, I am more than a little leery. Shipley has given up 13 runs in just 10.1 innings in his last two starts against two struggling offenses in the Padres and the Mets. I don’t trust him at all right now.
Mike Montgomery gave up just a solo homer in 4.1 innings against the Rockies in his first start as a Cub. He has never faced the Dodgers. Just be aware that Montgomery is unlikely to go deep into the game. He has worked exclusively as a reliever as a Cub until John Lackey went on the DL. He is more worth the risk in season long leagues than in your DraftKings lineup.
Jeff Hoffman was smoked by the Cubs in his big league debut over the weekend. It wont get any easier against the Nationals, but at least he doesn’t have to face them in Coors Field. Regardless, you should stay far away from this one unless you plan on stacking Nationals hitters.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Chris Sale ($11,700): The Mariners have been flat out bad against Sale. The current team is hitting just .192 against Sale in 104 at bats with only two homers, just five runs, and a healthy 31 strikeouts. Everyone has made such a big deal about Sale struggling this year, but his ERA is only 0.20 above his career mark, and his 1.03 WHIP is better than his career mark. The strikeouts are down, you say? He still has 165 in 168.2 innings pitched. Sale remains an upper tier fantasy option.
Corey Kluber ($11,000): It is a rare occurrence when all of the aces have a good history against their opponents. Kluber has held the Rangers to a .188 average in 64 at bats with just four runs and an impressive 17 strikeouts. Cole Hamels dominated Cleveland last night. Will Kluber return the favor tonight? The past stats say that he has a puncher’s chance.
Justin Verlander ($10,400): Verlander has been flat out nasty against the Angels. They are hitting just .155 against him in 84 at bats with a whopping 27 strikeouts. They have managed to scrape together eight runs, but you wont care with strikeout totals like that. Also, Verlander has a 2.44 ERA since July 1st. He is probably the safest option out there tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Wright ($9,400): Wright makes me nervous since this is his first start off of the DL, but this column is about past stats, so he bears mentioning. The Royals are only 9-45(.200) against Wright with a homer, four RBI, and nine strikeouts. Those numbers are good enough to use him, but he is a risk.
David Phelps ($8,700): Phelps has given up just three runs in 20.2 August innings. Maybe anyone with the surname Phelps just has a great August. Who knows. At any rate, the Padres are only 7-31(.226) against Phelps. Two of the four runs they have driven in are by Wil Myers, who has failed to record a hit off Phelps. He wont wow you with strikeouts, but six in 31 at bats is good enough to at least consider someone on a hot streak against one of the worst offenses in the league.
Ian Kennedy ($7,700): Kennedy’ s numbers aren’t great against the Red Sox, but I would be foolish not to at least consider a pitcher that has given up just three runs in his past five starts, a span of 34 innings. His numbers against Boston are good enough for this price. The Sox have managed a solid .257 average in 140 at bats, but they only have three homers, and are right about average with 14 runs. The 26 strikeouts make Kennedy risky because his strikeouts wont mitigate any damage if Boston gets to him. Use him at your discretion, but his numbers are decent enough to consider someone on such a hot streak.
Dark Horses:
Ryan Vogelsong ($5,400): The 39 year old Vogelsong has turned back the clock so far in 2016. He has only given up six earned runs since joining the rotation on August 4th. He also has a stellar history against Milwaukee. The current Brewers are just 6-40(.150) with 11 strikeouts. The only damage was a Ryan Braun solo homer, his only hit in 12 at bats. Vogelsong doesn’t have sexy numbers, but he gets results. He should be a great bargain at this price.
Pat Dean ($4,500): Dean is filling in for Hector Santiago. He has a 5.48 ERA, so why is he here? The Jays only mustered two runs on three hits against him back on May 21st. Like this game, it was also in Rogers Centre. Can lightning strike twice? If you want to go really cheap, Dean is a huge risk, but he did it once this year.
Ross Detwiler ($4,000): Are you really brave? If so, the Cardinals are only 2-16 lifetime against Ross Detwiler. Matt Holliday, who is on the disabled list, has both of those hits. So the current Cardinals are essentially 0-12 against Detwiler with five strikeouts.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
Ricky Nolasco has been even worse with the Angels than he was with the Twins. He is 0-3 with a 5.70 ERA with the Halos. Up next are the Tigers, who have hit him very well. A Tiger stack will likely be a solid foundation for a winning lineup. Miguel Cabrera ($5,000) is a modest 5-18(.278) with four walks, a double, an two RBI. Ian Kinsler ($3,600) has five RBI and three doubles with a .346 average in 26 at bats. Justin Upton ($3,500) is heating up, and he has blasted Nolasco to the tune of 9-22(.409) with two walks, a homer, and six RBI. At least Nolasco dodges Nick Castellanos, Anthony Gose, and Jose Iglesias. Those three are a combined 11-35 with two homers and 11 RBI against Nolasco.
It’s a pretty safe bet to stack against Matt Garza. Especially when the stats support it! David Freese ($3,900) is only 4-17(.235), but he has two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Garza. Matt Joyce ($4,500) hammers righties, and Garza is no exception. Joyce is 4-10 with a double, a homer, and four RBI. Andrew McCutchen ($4,600) only has five hits in 19 at bats (.263), but he has four walks, a homer, and two RBI. Gregory Polanco ($5,500) is 4-7 with two walks and a solo homer against Garza.
Adam Morgan faced the Mets once, almost exactly one year ago. He gave up four home runs in 3.2 innings. Travis d’Arnaud ($3,200), Wilmer Flores ($4,200), Juan Lagares, and David Wright all took him deep. The silver lining for Morgan is that Wright and Lagares will not be in the lineup, but you can bet the other two will be.
The Yankees that are still there have still hit Yovani Gallardo hard. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,800) is 5-14(.357) with a double, a triple, and two RBI. Chase Headley ($3,600) has gone 9-25(.360) with five walks, a homer, and three RBI against Gallardo. Brian McCann ($3,600) could be a solid play if he cracks the lineup. He is 6-24 with six walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Watch out for Mark Teixeira ($2,900). Tex is 3-12 with three walks, two homers, and three RBI against Gallardo.
Brandon Finnegan was shelled by Arizona last month. Can they do it again? Welington Castillo ($4,900) had the big blow with a three run homer in three at bats. Yasmany Tomas ($5,100) and Paul Goldschmidt ($5,400) both hit solo shots off of him. RIckie Weeks ($4,000) was 2-3 with a RBI against Finnegan as well.
Some of the Cubs have really hit Bud Norris well. Dexter Fowler ($4,700) is 5-9 with six walks, two doubles, and three RBI against Norris. Jason Heyward ($2,900) is 3-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI. If Miguel Montero ($3,100) gets the start, he is worth a look. Montero is 6-14(.429) with two walks, a double, and four RBI. Ben Zobrist ($4,800) only has three hits in 19 at bats (.158), but he has three walks, a homer, and two RBI.
The Twins have 11 RBI against former teammate Francisco Liriano in just 56 at bats. Brian Dozier ($5,300) was never his teammate, but he is 2-7 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer off of him. Trevor Plouffe ($3,300) is 3-5 with a double, two homers, and four RBI against Liriano. Joe Mauer ($3,100) has only picked up one hit in seven at bats, but he has driven in three runs.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Next: More Notes For 8-26
Melky Cabrera ($2,700) is 8-25 (.308) against Felix Hernandez with two walks, two doubles, a triple, and three RBI. Todd Frazier ($2,800) hit a three run homer in three trips against the King last month. Justin Morneau ($2,800) has five walks, four RBI, and has hit for the cycle against King Felix, but his average still sits at .175.
Eric Hosmer ($3,600) is 1-4 with a two run homer against Steven Wright. How will he welcome him back from the DL?
Ryan Howard ($3,500) is only 6-28(.214) against Bartolo Colon, but he has three walks, three homers, and eight RBI. He is a reasonable cheap alternative to…..
……Surprise, surprise. David Ortiz ($5,200) has hit Ian Kennedy well. Papi is 3-6 with a homer and three RBI against Kennedy. Dustin Pedroia ($3,800) is 3-4 with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI. Keep an eye out to see if Chris Young ($2,900) is in the lineup. If he is, he is 1-2 with a solo homer against Kennedy.
Us DraftKings players should be hoping that DJ LeMahieu can return to the lineup today. LeMahieu ($4,900) is 2-2 with a single, a homer, and two RBI against Gio Gonzalez. Ryan Raburn ($2,700) has clobbered Gio. He is 7-14 with a walk, a double, three homers, and four RBI.
Jeff Samardzija seems to be back on track, but he needs to look out for Matt Kemp ($3,400) and Gordon Beckham ($2,400) tonight. Beckham is 4-13(.308) with a double and a solo homer. Kemp is only 4-16, but he has a double, two homers, and three RBI. The rest of the team is just 7-38 off Samardzija.
Jurickson Profar ($2,500) doesn’t much care how much success Corey Kluber has had against his teammates. Profar is 3-5 with a solo homer against Kluber.
George Springer ($4,400) is 2-3 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Drew Smyly. Jose Altuve ($4,400) is 3-5 with a double and a pair of RBI against Smyly.
Evan Longoria ($4,500) and Brad Miller ($4,500) both took Mike Fiers deep in their only game against him. They will likely be the Rays’ only source of offense. Can they do it again?
Mike Napoli ($3,700) is 3-4 with two walks and a RBI against Martin Perez. With him making that kind of contact, it is only a matter of time before he hits something that wont land for a while.
Jose Bautista ($4,000) is 1-3 with a two run homer against Pat Dean.
Mike Trout and Geovany Soto are the only Angels to take Verlander deep. The bad news, besides the fact that Soto is on the DL? They are a combined 2-21 against him. Albert Pujols ($3,300) has managed to go 6-18 with four walks and three doubles, but only has one RBI to show for it.
Nelson Cruz ($4,200) is the only Mariner that has had any kind of success against Chris Sale. Cruz has both of the current Seattle homers against Sale, and has driven in four of the five runs.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!