DraftKings MLB Picks For August 29
There are 13 games tonight, making this one of the busiest Mondays in some time. We have five pitchers topping the $10,000 mark tonight. Should we try for two of them since DraftKings has two pitcher slots, or should we find bargains and pay for hitters? Should we use two from the middle tier? Let’s check the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Rafael Montero will make his first major league start tonight against Miami. He had a 11.57 ERA in two April relief appearances, and a 4.60 ERA in 16 AAA starts. There is no reason to take this risk.
Matt Shoemaker has never faced the Reds. He quietly has a 3.27 ERA in August, and this looks likes a really good matchup, especially at home. Did I mention Shoemaker has a 3.10 ERA at home this year?
After a superb start to his career, Joe Musgrove has been pounded in his last two starts. He has given up 13 runs in just 9.1 innings with only four strikeouts against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, two solid offenses. I’m not sure Oakland fits that bill. The matchup looks good, but how much have these last two starts damaged Musgrove’s psyche?
Steven Brault gave up five runs (four earned) over ten innings in two starts back in July. Now he is back up for good this year, and will get a crack at the Cubs. I wouldn’t risk it against the Cubs.
Jake Thompson has never faced the Mets. However, his 9.78 ERA over four starts shouldn’t give you enough confidence to use him against anyone right now.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jose Fernandez ($12,700): Fernandez easily earned top billing again. He has a solid history against the Mets, holding them to a .224 average in 107 at bats. Fernandez has allowed nine runs, but the 38 strikeouts far outweigh any runs allowed. He is once again an elite option because of the strikeout potential.
Carlos Martinez ($10,300): The Brewers are only hitting .226 against Martinez in 62 at bats with just four runs scored and an astonishing 27 strikeouts. If you want to shy away from the common play of Fernandez, Martinez is a very worthy alternative.
Honorable Mention:
Jake Arrieta ($12,300): The Pirates are only hitting .213 against Arrieta in 202 at bats with three homers, 13 RBI, and 55 strikeouts. Those are pretty good numbers, but they are not up to par of the pitchers in the elite tier tonight. After a subpar July in which Arrieta posted a 4.88 ERA, he is back on track with a 4-0 record and 1.98 ERA in August. Arrieta is once again one of the least risky DFS plays.
Sean Manaea ($6,900): The Astros are only hitting .212 against Manaea in two starts, and they have mustered a grand total of two runs. He only has seven strikeouts, which is rather low considering how much Houston strikes out. However, Manaea has fanned 100 batters in 117 innings, so it isn’t out of the question that the total could spike.
Kenta Maeda ($6,500): The Rockies are hitting just .177 against Maeda in 62 at bats with a homer, only three runs, and a healthy 21 strikeouts. On top of that, Maeda has only given up two earned runs at Coors Field this year in two starts. Don’t be afraid to use him tonight.
Dark Horses:
Zach Davies ($6,300): The Cardinals managed just three hits against Kyle Davies in their June 1sty game against him in eight scoreless innings. All of the hits were singles, they didn’t draw a walk, and Davies struck out nine. If he can do it again, he would be a great bargain. The bad part is that Davies has a 5.86 ERA in August.
Matt Andriese ($5,500): How much do you trust past stats? For those of you willing to roll the dice on a cheap arm, Andriese is your man. The Red Sox are only 11-54(.204)against him with a whopping 19 strikeouts! He has given up only one homer and three runs. He has been hit hard since rejoining the rotation (he has a 6.48 August ERA), but if you trust past stats……wow!
Dillon Gee ($4,200): The current Yankees are only hitting .200 against Gee in 65 at bats with just four runs, but they also only have ten strikeouts. That makes his floor very low, but he could come thorugh with a solid point total for you if you are looking to go really cheap.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
You may like Rick Porcello tonight, but his stats against the Rays aren’t as good as you may think. They also aren’t as good as you want if you are paying nearly $12,000 for a pitcher. Corey Dickerson ($3,500) is 3-13(.231) with two doubles and a solo homer off of him. At least he dodges Desmond Jennings and Logan Forsythe, both of whom have hit him well. Evan Longoria ($3,700) is 10-40(.250) with two walks, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Brad Miller ($4,200) has not had trouble with Porcello at all. His 4-15(.267) mark is solid but unspectacular, but he has three homers and five RBI. Logan Morrison ($2,900) is back. He is also 8-19(.421) with two doubles and a RBI against Porcello.
You likely want to stack Tigers against James Shields. MIguel Cabrera ($5,400) is 24-63(.381) with six walks, ten doubles, three homers, and ten RBI. Victor Martinez ($4,500) is 15-51(.294) with two walks, five doubles, a homer, and seven RBI. Ian Kinsler ($4,400) is only 15-59(.254) but he has four walks, two doubles, four homers, and six RBI against Shields. Cameron Maybin ($4,400) is 6-17(.353) with two walks, a triple, and three RBI against Shields. Erick Aybar ($3,700) is only 5-22(.227), but he has two homers and three RBI against Shields. J.D. Martinez ($5,100) is 9-21(.429) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI.
Joe Mauer ($4,000) is 9-25(.360) with two walks, five doubles, a homer, and six RBI against Trevor Bauer. Kennys Vargas ($3,800) is 7-13(.538) with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Eddie Rosario ($3,200) is 8-16 with a double, a homer, and five RBI off of Bauer. Jorge Polanco ($3,400) is 1-3 with a solo homer against Bauer. Juan Centeno ($2,800) is 3-7 with two doubles and two RBI against Bauer. He is worth using if he starts. If Kurt Suzuki ($3,000) starts, use him. Suzuki is 3-14(.214) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Bauer.
Don’t fret, Cleveland fans. The Indians have beat up on Hector Santiago as well. Jason Kipnis ($4,100) is 7-21 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI against him. Mike Napoli ($4,200) is only 3-14(.214) with ten walks, Jose Ramirez ($4,500) has a walk, a single, a homer, and two RBI in five at bats. Carlos Santana ($4,300) is 5-16(.313) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Santiago.
Adrian Beltre ($4,100) is 13-45(.289) with two walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI against Hisashi Iwakuma. Rougned Odor ($4,300) is 7-21 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Iwakuma. Nomar Mazara ($4,000) is 4-9 against Iwakuma, but has no counting stats. Mitch Moreland ($3,800) is only 8-38(.211) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Iwakuma. Jurickson Profar ($3,300) is 4-17(.235) with walk, a homer, and two RBI. Ryan Rua ($3,000) has a homer and two singles in nine at bats agianst Iwakuma.
Next: More Notes For 8-29
The only Angels that Dan Straily has faced are Mike Trout ($4,900), Kole Calhoun ($3,300), and Albert Pujols ($3,600). All three of them hit him well. Calhoun is 2-5 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Pujols is 6-16(.375) with a homer and three RBI. Trout is 7-17(.412) with a double and two RBI.
Evan Gattis ($4,400) is 3-6 with a homer and two RBI against Sean Manaea. Gattis is the only Astro that has driven in a run against Manaea.
Believe it or not, Kelly Johnson ($2,600) is the only Met to hit a homer against Jose Fernandez. He also has three RBI in just two at bats!
Cody Asche ($2,800) is 6-13(.462) with two walks, a double, and two solo homers against Tanner Roark. Maikel Franco ($3,700) is 4-11(.364) with a walk and three RBI. Odubel Herrera ($4,200) also is 4-11 with a walk, a double, and two RBI. Ryan Howard ($3,400) is 4-15(.267) with two walks, a double, a homer, and six RBI against Roark.
Mark Teixeira ($3,500) is 2-7 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Dillon Gee.
Salvador Perez ($3,800) is 6-17(.353) with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Michael Pineda. Eric Hosmer ($4,000) is 5-15 with a homer and two RBI. At least Pineda dodges Mike Moustakas, who is 6-13 with two homers against him.
Matt Joyce ($3,400) is 7-20 with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Jake Arrieta. Andrew McCutchen ($3,800) is 11-34(324) with five walks, four doubles and a RBI. Sean Rodriguez ($3,100) is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI.
Corey Seager ($5,500) is 5-8 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Jon Gray. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,800) is 4-10 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI. Justin Turner ($5,100) if 4-11 with a pair of RBI off Gray.
David Ortiz ($5,300) is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI against Matt Andriese.
Kyle Seager ($4,300) is 9-25(.360) with three walks, four doubles, and eight RBI agianst Yu Darvish. Seth Smith ($3,100) is 5-15 with two walks, three doubles, and two RBI against Darvish.
Scooter Gennett ($2,800) is the only Brewer that has had any sort of success against Carlos Martinez. Gennett is 5-17(.294) with a walk, three doubles, and two RBI.
Jose Abreu ($3,900) is 2-5 with a homer and three RBI against Matt Boyd. Avisail Garcia ($3,600) is only 1-3, but the hit is a two run homer.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!