DraftKings Fantasy Golf: Deutsche Bank Championship
Let me start off by saying, if you rostered Stenson last week, my condolences to you and your lineups. I was on that same sinking ship, so I’m ready to bounce back into the win column this weekend. For the second leg of the Fed Ex Cup, we head north to Norton, Massachusetts for this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship.
The Deutsche Bank Championship will return to TPC Boston, which hosts this event every year. The course will play at a shade under 7300 yards, and a par 71. Par 5 and Par 4 scoring will be key here, as a few holes will be prime opportunities for eagles and birdies. This is one of the easier courses on the tour and guys that can hit a good approach shot will be in luck. I’d like to say this course will favor the bombers, but after going through some course history, I may be pulling back on that. Over the last five years, Furyk, Kuchar, Day, Johnson, Senden, Simpson, and Scott, all have had at least three top 25 finishes or better. It appears to be a course that is more conducive to accuracy, but long iron play will also be crucial this week.
As far as lineup construction is concerned, it’s not hard to figure out that studs and duds will be optimal. The field is down to 100 golfers, and will only be cut down to 70. Additionally most of the value can be found in the bottom tier. While studs and duds may be the most optimal lineup approach, I’ll be looking to leverage this and go contrarian with a balanced approach in some of my GPP lineups.
Key Metrics
Strokes Gained Tee to Green – A measurement of the golfers efficiency, exuding putting, in comparison with the field
Par 5 Scoring – How well a golfer performs on par 5’s.
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – This represents the percentage of holes in which a golfer reaches the green in at least two strokes less than par.
Driving Accuracy (DA) – percentage of a golfer’s drives that land in the fairway
Course History – How a golfer has performed on this course in the last five years
Par 4 Efficiency 450 – 500 yards – How a golfer performs on long par 4’s.
Next: Top Tier
Top Tier
Day ($12,500), Stenson ($10,700), Mcilroy ($11,100), Johnson ($12,100), Spieth ($11,600)
Similarly to last week, pricing will again allow you to easily pay up for one, if not two, of these top golfers. I think Day is the only golfer that stands out as the top play. It’s not necessarily due to the fact that I think he’s a much better option than the others, but I have question marks with everyone else. Does Stenson match up great for this course? Yes, but with his withdraw last week due to injury, who knows what kind of Stenson we’ll get. Is Mcilroy one of the best ball strikers on tour? Yes, but his putting is resembling Ernie Els at Augusta this year. DJ is a stud but is appearing to be regressing after his tremendous June and July and I honestly have no idea what to do with Spieth.
It’s safe to say that I’m not alone with most of these question marks, which could create an opportunity to find contrarian plays. Day should be the chalk in this group of players, but I think Stenson and Mcilroy make intriguing tournament plays. However, it will be important to monitor any news regarding Stenson’s injury (He has mentioned that he’s focusing much more on the Ryder Cup this year).
Adam Scott (10,400)
I can’t say enough good things about Scott this week. He checks the box in nearly every statistical category except putting. If he gets a few putts to drop, he has a legitimate shot to win this tournament. Scott is coming into the tournament in tremendous form, with a 4th place finish at the Barclays and a 18th place finish at the PGA Championship. Also, it must be noted that he has three top 10’s at this course. As much as I love Scott, keep in mind, so does everyone else. He’ll be a part of my core this week, but if you’re looking for a sneaky flyer, he won’t be it.
Bubba Watson ($8,900)
I’ll have to check my personal hate for Bubba at the door, because he is my favorite play of the week. As one of the longest hitters in the field, Bubba also has hit 70.3% of GIR. I think Bubba is trending in the direction of a top 10 finish. He’s finished 13th at the Barclays, and 8th at the Olympics. It’s also important to note that Bubba is coming off of a 66 on Sunday last week. I’d look for him to ride that moment into Friday. At a price under $9000, I’d be seriously considering Bubba if I were you.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)
Matsuyama is lining up as one of my top contrarian picks on the slate. Matsuyama struggled tee to green last week and missed the cut. This result should drive down a lot of ownership, leaving us with what could be a very profitable situation. Matsuyama is an excellent ball striker, but more importantly excels on par 4’s where he ranks in the top 5 for average adjusted strokes on par 4’s.
Emiliano Grillo ($9,000)
Grillo has had a great year, and has truly cementing himself into an elite category. He’s one of the more accurate golfers in the field as he’s hit 68% of fairways and 70.1% of GIR. This course sets up perfectly for Grillo who ranks in the top 10 of the field in par 5 scoring, with a -5 average adjust strokes. I’ll be all over Grillo, but he will be a chalky pick.
Other players I’ll have exposure to: Phil Mickelson, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, Brooks Koepka
Next: Mid and Bottom Tier
Mid Tier
Billy Horschel ($8,500) and Jason Dufner ($7,800)
I’m grouping this guys together as they play with a similar style and are both in relatively good form. I think both are fairly safe and could be intriguing options if you plan on using a balanced lineup building approach. I like Horschel slightly more, but I’ll have exposure to both players.
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Jhonattan Vegas ($7,400)
Man has this guy been good. Outside of a bad Olympic’s, Vegas has two 22nd place finishes, a win, and a fourth place finish. I think his pricing is somewhat low, in a spot that he could excel. He’s a bomber that scores well in accuracy relative to his length and I’d be looking for another top 25 from him.
Other players I’ll have exposure to: Branden Grace, Gary Woodland, Zach Johnson, Paul Casey, Russell Knox, Charley Hoffman
Bottom Tier
Ryan Palmer (6,700)
While Palmer isn’t as accurate as I’d like, cheap is cheap. Palmer is coming off of a great showing at the Barclay’s with a 13th place finish. Palmer could be a source of salary relief, but also has the length to provide upside.
Webb Simpson ($6,100)
Webb doesn’t come in standout form, but I think he fits this course well and has the course history to back it up. Webb has hit 64.7% of fairways and this has proven valuable as he has 3 top 25 finishes in the last 5 years, including a win
Hudson Swafford ($5,500)
Swafford continues to make cuts, so I’ll continue to roster him. I don’t think he’s a great course fit as he’s more long than he is accurate, but given the price and his consistency, he’ll see some of my lineups. His only appearance at TPC Boston was last year in which he finished 33rd.
Brendan Steele (6,600)
Steele is another golfer that could be classified as a bomber, but is accurate given his distance. He has hit 61.4% of fairways and 69.2% of GIR. Steele could make up ground on par 5’s, where he has an average adjusted strokes of -4.9. If his last two outings at the Barclay’s and the Traveler’s are any indication, he should be a good bet to hit value.
Other players I’ll have exposure to: Tony Finau, Chez Reavie, Jason Kokrak, Harris English, Chris Kirk
Next: College Football Week 1 Pick Em
Notes and Fades:
Bentgrass Greens
Fading DJ (either paying up for Day or saving with Rory)