DraftKings MLB Picks For September 1
We only have three games in the main tournament tonight because of the official start of the college football season. Half of the pitchers are priced at over $9,000. Should we pay for pitching, or spend big on the hitters for our DraftKings lineups? Let’s take a peek at the past stats for some insight.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
Mike Montgomery has never faced the Pirates. He has had a couple of decent starts for the Cubs, but keep in mind that he wont go deep into the game since he pitched in relief for most of the year. There is some upside here, but his ceiling is still pretty low.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Jacob deGrom ($9,000): deGrom got blasted in his last start, and the Marlins have hit him reasonably well. Until you dig deeper into the stats, that is. Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour has all three of the homers off of deGrom and eight of the 18 RBI in just 24 of the 165 at bats. If you take their stats out, the Fish are still hitting .283, but they have no homers and 10 RBI in 141 at bats with 41 strikeouts. Those numbers are plenty good enough to move deGrom to the top of a short slate.
Honorable Mention:
Jose Quintana ($10,700): Quintana is the highest priced pitcher on the slate, but I’m not sure he will outscore everyone. The Twins are only hitting .235 against him though in 230 at bats with 56 strikeouts. The strikeout upside mitigates the damage done by the six homers and 26 RBI that he has allowed the Twins. Minnesota is not crushing left handed pitching like they did last year. Quintana has the most strikeout upside, and is a good alternative if you are looking to fade deGrom.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
The Twins hit lefties well, and Jose Quintana is no exception. Brian Dozier ($5,200) is only 11-43(.256), but he has three walks, two doubles, four homers, and nine RBI. Dozier homered off of him twice back on June 28th. Joe Mauer ($3,200) hits everyone pretty well. He is 11-34(.324) with three walks, two homers, and five RBI against Quintana. Eddie Rosario ($2,800) is 3-11 with a walk and as many RBI as hits off Quintana. Kennys Vargas ($3,300) is 4-10, but all of the hits are singles. He has driven in two runs and walked though. Trevor Plouffe ($3,500) is 8-28(.286) with six walks, two doubles, and three RBI against Quintana.
Jeff Samardzija‘s former teammates have hit him well since he left the Cubs. Dexter Fowler ($4,600) is 6-22(.273) with a walk, a double, two triples, and a solo homer against Samardzija. Miguel Montero ($2,800) has three hits in 11 at bats with four walks, a double, and two RBI. Anthony Rizzo ($5,100) is 1-2 with a walk and a solo homer. At least Samardzija dodges Chris Coghlan, who has homered twice off of him. Jason Heyward ($3,000) is only 1-11, but the hit is a solo home run.
Justin Morneau ($3,100) is only 7-32(.219) against Ervin Santana, but he has four walks, a double, four homers, and ten RBI off of him. Melky Cabrera ($3,200) is 10-32(.313) with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. Adam Eaton ($3,600) is 5-13(.385) with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Santana. Todd Frazier ($3,600) is only 2-10, but he has three walks, a double, and a solo homer. Avisail Garcia ($3,000) is 5-13(.385) with a double and a solo homer as well.
Next: More Notes For 9-1
Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 12-24 with three homers and eight RBI against Jacob deGrom. Fortunately for deGrom, they are both still on the disabled list. Chris Johnson ($2,200) is 5-19(..263) with a double and three RBI though. Marcell Ozuna ($2,900) has seven hits in 24 at bats (.292) with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Christian Yelich ($4,300) is 9-24(.375) with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI against deGrom.
Wilmer Flores ($4,200) has only faced Jose Urena once. He hit a two run homer off of him. Neil Walker ($4,300) is 1-3 with a homer and two RBI against Urena.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!