DraftKings MLB Picks For September 16
The Cubs and Brewers have a matinee at Wrigley today, so the DraftKings main tournament contains 14 games. There are three aces on the mound, but there are seven mid-range pitchers. Can they provide value, or should we pay for the expensive pitchers? Let’s check out the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
John Gant allowed one hit in his inning of relief against the Nationals earlier this year. Still, this is the Nationals with one of the best pitchers in the league pitching against him. You can likely do better than Gant tonight.
Jose Berrios has never faced the Mets. While this may look like a good matchup, keep in mind that Berrios has a 9.27 ERA, and only has one career quality start. Why chance it?
Matt Moore has never faced the Cardinals. His ERA sits at 4.05 with the Giants, so a move to the NL hasn’t helped him so far. The Cardinals aren’t particularly strong against lefties, but Moore is still a bit of a risk here.
Rookie Luke Weaver has never faced the Giants. He has a 3.48 ERA in six major league starts, and has five strikeouts in all of those except for his four inning debut. He is a solid play against the Giants.
Robert Stephenson has his worst major league start on Saturday against this same Pirate team, allowing four runs on five hits and two walks in three innings. Don’t rule out the possibility of the Pirates doing it again.
The Red Sox went 0-6 against Luis Cessa in his two inning of relief against them this season, but starting is a whole different animal. There are better options for the price.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Max Scherzer ($13,700): Scherzer is once again very expensive, which will lead to a lot of people fading him. The Braves are only hitting .228 against Scherzer in 232 at bats with just four homers, 19 runs, and a lofty 61 strikeouts. These numbers may look a notch below elite, but one of those homers and nine of the RBI are by A.J. Pierzynski, who is still on the DL. Fade him at your own risk.
Cole Hamels ($9,300): You have to look past the ugly .271 average that the A’s have off of Hamels in 48 at bats. They have only scored four runs, even with three homers against Hamels, and have struck out 11 times. Those numbers aren’t quite elite, but Hamels isn’t priced in the elite tier either. Against a team like Oakland, there is always a chance he scores like it.
Honorable Mention:
Kenta Maeda ($8,800): Arizona is hitting a solid .239 against Maeda in 88 at bats, but they have struck out 20 times already. They are about average in scoring eight runs, but have only homered once. Maeda still wont go deep into the game, but he should rack up some good points while he is in there.
Tom Koehler ($7,200): History is on Koehler’s side. The Phillies are only hitting .205 against him in 166 at bats with just three home runs and 41 strikeouts. The bad news? They have scored 18 runs. The strikeouts help offset the damage, but Koehler is one of the better low-range options you will find tonight.
Collin McHugh ($6,900): McHugh has struggled to a 10-10 record and 4.86 ERA this year, but the Mariners don’t have much to do with that. They are only hitting .216 off of him in 176 at bats with 16 runs and a rather high 46 strikeouts. The M’s have hit seven homers, but those don’t count against you any more than a normal run. McHugh could be a sneaky option tonight.
Dark Horses:
Adam Morgan ($5,900): Morgan’s 5.73 ERA is daunting, but it isn’t the Marlins’ fault it is where it is. The Fish are only 10-47(.213) against him with just three RBI. He has only struck out five, but you are rostering him to get outs by any means necessary. You aren’t paying the premium for strikeouts, so at this price, you take the outs and be happy.
Tyler Chatwood ($5,800): Chatwood has been brilliant against the Padres in his career. They are only hitting .216 against him in 74 at bats with only one homer, just four runs, and 14 strikeouts. Now for the bad news: Chatwood has a 4.63 career ERA at Coors Field in 35 games (31 starts).
Christian Friedrich ($4,600): Friedrich has absolutely dominated the Rockies in his career. They are a pathetic 7-51(.137) with only three runs scored and an incredible 20 strikeouts. On top of that, Friedrich has not allowed a run in 13 career innings at Coors Field. He could be one of the steals of the season, but this is Coors Field. It’s always dangerous up there.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
There is strong evidence that stacking Royals against Chris Sale could be a good idea. After all, they are hitting .300 against him in 390 at bats. Alcides Escobar ($2,500) is 23-65(.354) with two walks, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,500) has hit the fellow lefty hard. Hosmer is 18-45(.400) with two walks, a double, three homers, and seven RBI against Sale. Salvador Perez ($2,300) is 15-53(.283) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI, though he is mired in an awful slump right now. Paulo Orlando ($2,500) only has four hits in 19 at bats, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Kendrys Morales ($4,100) is only 4-21(.190), but he has homered twice and driven in four. At least Sale dodges Lorenzo Cain, who has smacked three homers and driven in eight against him.
Should you stack against Chris Archer? Chris Davis ($4,000) is 5-19(.263) with seven walks, two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against him. Jonathan Schoop ($3,600) is 5-13 with a double and two solo home runs off of Archer. Manny Machado ($4,100) is 10-29(.345) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI against him. Even J.J. Hardy ($2,600) is 6-20 with two doubles and three RBI off Archer. More? How about Matt Wieters ($3,400). He is 7-24(.292) with a double and four RBI against Archer as well. Pedro Alvarez ($3,400) has four hits in ten at bats, and they have all gone for extra bases. He has a walk, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI off Archer. A stack may be worth while.
The Dodgers punished their former teammate Zack Greinke a couple of weeks ago. Can they do it again? Adrian Gonzalez ($4,200) only has two hits in nine at bats, but he has a homer and two RBI. Joc Pederson ($4,300) has two hits in five at bats with a double and a solo homer. Corey Seager ($5,100) in an impressive 5-6 with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Greinke. Justin Turner ($4,900) has three hits in eight at bats with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Chase Utley ($3,200) is 5-19(.263) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI.
Jered Weaver is taking the mound, so you know there is a stack involved here! Edwin Encarnacion ($4,600) is 4-13 with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. Russell Martin‘s ($3,500) 8-34 is nothing to write home about, but he has five walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Justin Smoak has hit Weaver hard. Smoak ($3,600) is 10-34(.294) with three walks, three doubles, three homers, and eight RBI against Weaver. Melvin Upton Jr. ($3,200) is 8-22(.364) with a walk, a double, a homer, and two driven in. Michael Saunders ($3,300) has a robust .346 average (9-26) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Thinking about Josh Donaldson? Don’t. He is just 3-19 against Weaver.
Next: More Notes For 9-16
Adonis Garcia ($2,800) is 3-12 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Max Scherzer. Both Tyler Flowers ($2,600) and Freddie Freeman ($3,500) have homered against Scherzer, but they are a combined 6-25 against him.
Mitch Moreland ($3,400) is 2-4 with a homer and three RBI against Kendall Graveman. Shin-Soo Choo has also taken him deep, but Choo is on the DL yet again.
Melky Cabrera ($3,300) is 5-18(.278) with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Ian Kennedy. Justin Morneau ($2,800) is 9-27 with a walk, three doubles, a triple, and three RBI against Kennedy. J.B. Shuck ($2,400) has two hits in five at bats with a solo homer. Alex Avila ($2,800) only has two hits in nine at bats, but they are both home runs and he has walked twice.
Cody Asche ($2,900) is only 4-22(.182) against Tom Koehler, but he has a triple, a homer, and four RBI off of him. Freddy Galvis ($4,200) is 6-24 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI off Koehler.
Jake Lamb ($4,600) is 7-13(.538) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Kenta Maeda. Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) is 4-13(.308) against Maeda, but he has no extra base hits and only one RBI against him.
Mike Trout ($5,500) has no problems with R.A. Dickey‘s knuckleball. Trout is 6-13(.462) with three walks, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. It is only a matter of time before he takes him deep.
Joe Mauer ($3,900) is 3-4 with a double and a RBI against Bartolo Colon. Kurt Suzuki ($2,600) is 5-13 with two doubles, but he has no counting stats.
Brandon Phillips ($4,100) is 12-24 with two walks, three doubles, and two RBI against Ryan Vogelsong. Scott Schebler ($3,500) went 2-3 with two doubles and three RBI against Vogelsong last week.
Jung Ho Kang ($5,000) hit a single and a homer and drove in three against Robert Stephenson on Saturday.
Robinson Cano ($4,500) is 10-30 with two walks, a double, a triple, two homers, and seven RBI against Collin McHugh. Nelson Cruz ($4,100) is 6-15 with two homers and three driven in. Mike Zunino ($3,000) only has four hits in 17 at bats against McHugh, but he has homered twice and brought in three.
Khris Davis ($4,700) isn’t intimidated by Cole Hamels. Davis is 3-5 with a walk and two solo homers against him.
Miguel Cabrera ($4,400) has punished Corey Kluber. Miggy is 20-42(.476) with two walks, two doubles, five homers, and ten RBI against him already! J.D. Martinez ($3,200) is 6-21(.286) with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,000) is 10-32(.313) with three walks, three homers, and five RBI off of Kluber.
Kevin Kiermaier ($4,400) is 2-7 with a homer and two RBI against Ubaldo Jimenez. Logan Morrison ($4,100) is 5-8 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and five RBI.
Brett Gardner ($4,100) is 8-30(.267) with a walk, two doubles, and four RBI against Clay Buchholz. Chase Headley ($3,900) has three hits in eight at bats with a double, a homer, and three RBI. Mark Teixeira ($3,500) is only 4-28(.167) against Buchholz, but he has two homers and seven RBI off of him.
Chris Gimenez ($2,500) is 2-4 with a solo homer against Michael Fulmer. Mike Napoli ($4,200) is 2-6 with a homer and three RBI off of Fulmer.
Jose Altuve ($5,000) is 9-19(.474) off of Felix Hernandez with two walks, three doubles, and a RBI. Colby Rasmus ($3,300) has seven hits in ten at bats, but he only has one RBI to show for it. Jason Castro ($2,900) is only 3-16(.188), but he has a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI off of King Felix.
Alex Dickerson‘s ($4,300) one hit in four at bats against Tyler Chatwood is a solo homer.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and for Week 2 in the NFL!