DraftKings MLB Picks For September 20
The DraftKings main tournament has all 30 teams in action tonight, so we have plenty of options to choose from. There are six pitchers priced at $9,800 or more. Are any of them worth it? We have seven more between $7,000 and 9,000. Can we find our two pitchers from that tier and spend on hitting? Let’s check out the past stats for some insight.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!
Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Josh Smith has worked out of the bullpen during his time in the majors. He will get his first career start against the Cubs. There is no reason to risk using him.
Rich Hill pitched well in his first start against the Giants, but the team as a whole is still hitting .276 off of him with just two strikeouts. That many baserunners will lose you too many points for someone that costs as much as Hill does.
Robert Gsellman gave up four runs on seven hits and two walks in five innings to the Braves back on September 9th. This still looks like a solid matchup, but is it worth the risk?
Steven Brault has yet to give up more than three earned runs in any of his seven starts. He has also failed to pick up a win, even against this Milwaukee squad back on September 4th. He only gave up one run in five innings ( a Domingo Santana homer), but he still took the loss.
Joe Musgrove pitched five scoreless innings against Oakland back on August 29th. He has given up ten runs in three starts since. Can he get back on track against those A’s?
Jake Thompson was rocked by the White Sox back on August 23rd. Will being in his home park really make that much of a difference? Probably not. Stay away from him again.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Jose Fernandez ($12,500): Fernandez has only given up ten runs in his past five starts. The bad news? Three of those were scoreless outings. His history against the Nationals is very good though. The Nats are only hitting .201 off of Fernandez in 149 at bats with just nine runs scored and 48 strikeouts. The strikeout ability gives him a large margin for error. However, if he gives up five runs again, he wont be worth what you pay for him.
Jon Lester ($12,200): Lester’s career numbers against the Reds are about average. Cincy is hitting a respectable .245 against Lester in 110 at bats with four homers, 11 runs, and 23 strikeouts. None of those numbers really jump off the page, so why is he up here? Well, Lester has not allowed more than one run in a game since August 11th. He has given up just seven runs in his last nine starts. Think about that for a minute, and you will realize why you need to start him against the Reds.
Julio Teheran ($10,300): The Mets are only hitting .184 against Teheran in 228 at bats. This is not a small sample size. He is tough on the Mets. The Mets have hit eight homers and scored 21 runs on Teheran, and have only struck out 44 times. He is on shaky ground in the elite tier, but he could be a nice fade option.
Honorable Mention:
Sean Manaea ($8.700): Houston is just 8-46(.174) against Manaea with 11 strikeouts. They have scraped together four runs, but the high strikeout total helps keep the damage to a minimum. So does the lack of base runners. His price is a little high to get a really good deal out of him, but he could certainly live up to this price.
Hisashi Iwakuma ($8,400): The Blue Jays are only hitting .179 against Iwakuma in 84 at bats, but they do have four homers and eight runs. The 14 strikeouts is nothing to write home about, but it will help mitigate some of the damage done. However, he is not allowing many base runners, so that should keep the run total down.
Dark Horses:
Drew Smyly ($7,000): Smyly has dominated the Yankees so far. They are hitting just .227 against him in 88 at bats with three homers, but only four runs scored and 18 strikeouts. Smyly’s ERA sits at 4.98 on the season, and he gets very little run support if he does happen to pitch well, so that limits his upside. If you believe in past stats though, Smyly can be a nice option at a reasonable price. Can he get back to his old self against the Yankees?
Adam Wainwright ($6,000): On the surface, this doesn’t look like a good matchup. After all, the Rockies are hitting .268 against Wainwright in 97 at bats. However, the Rockies have only scored two runs. That’s it. Two. They have also struck out 20 times. Wainwright also has a career 1.85 ERA in 24.1 innings at Coors Field. He is looking better and better!
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
Tanner Roark has had a very good year, but can you image what his stats would look like if he didn’t have to play the Marlins? They are hitting .313 against him in 208 at bats with seven homers and 29 runs. Justin Bour ($2,800) only has four hits in 17 at bats, but he has a walk, two homers, and four RBI. Derek Dietrich ($3,000) is 4-10 with two walks, a double, a homer, and four driven in against Roark. Dee Gordon ($4,200) has five hits in 11 at bats with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Marcell Ozuna ($3,000) is 8-26(.308) with a double, a triple, a homer, and five RBI. Martin Prado ($3,100) is 10-21(.476) with a walk, a homer, and five RBI. J.T. Realmuto ($3,800) has seven hits in 16 at bats(.438) with a double and four RBI. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,500) is only 5-23(.217), but he has three walks, a double, two homers, and three RBI off of Roark.
The Rays have hit Michael Pineda hard. Corey Dickerson ($3,900) is 6-10 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Michael Pineda. Kevin Kiermaier ($4,300) is 4-15(.267) with four walks, a double, a triple, and three RBI. Evan Longoria ($4,400) has also struggled against Pineda (5-30), but he has three walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Brad Miller ($3,600) may not be in the lineup, but if he is, he is worth using. Miller is 5-15 with two walks, two doubles, a triple, a homer, and two RBI against Pineda. Steven Souza ($2,700) has hammered Pineda, but he is now out for the season.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,000) is 7-25(.280) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Johnny Cueto. Chase Utley ($3,200) has fared well against Cueto as well. Utley is 10-31(.323) with a walk, a double, a homer, and a pair of RBI. Justin Turner ($4,000) is 6-18 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and a RBI against Cueto. Andre Ethier ($2,800) only has four hits in 17 at bats, but he has two walks, two doubles, and a solo homer. Even Carlos Ruiz ($2,300) has got in on the action. Ruiz is 4-14 with a walk, a double, and two RBI against Cueto.
The Mariners have blasted J.A. Happ in his career. Nori Aoki ($3,600) is 7-17(.412) with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI off of Happ. Robinson Cano ($3,800) is only 5-23(.217) off of Happ, but he has two walks, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Nelson Cruz ($4,800) is 8-17(.471) with a walk, a double, a triple, and two RBI. Chris Iannetta ($2,600) is 4-9 with four walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Kyle Seager ($3,700) has bucked the lefty-lefty trend. He is 4-11 with two homers and three RBI off of Happ.
The Royals have hit Josh Tomlin very well. The Champs are hitting .320 against Tomlin in 225 career at bats. Jarrod Dyson ($4,600) is 5-17(.294) with two triples and a RBI. Alcides Escobar ($4,200) is 8-33(.242) with three triples and four RBI. Salvador Perez ($3,500) is 14-23 (.609) with seven doubles, a homer, and six RBI off Tomlin. Eric Hosmer ($4,200) is only 5-28(.179) off of Tomlin, but he has two homers and four RBI.
You may want to consider stacking Red Sox as well. Mookie Betts ($5,100) is 6-17(.353) with a walk, two homers, and four RBI against Kevin Gausman. Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) is 6-23(.261) with a double and two RBI. Ryan Hanigan ($2,300) has two hits in five at bats with a homer and two RBI. He is worth playing if he starts. David Ortiz ($5,300) is 8-21(.381) with two walks, three doubles, two homers, and five RBI against Gausman. Dustin Pedroia ($3,800) has six hits in 20 at bats with a walk and a solo homer. Hanley Ramirez ($4,900) only has two hits in eight at bats against Gausman, but he has walked twice and hit a three run homer.
Check out this line: Jedd Gyorko ($3,900) is 14-22(.636) against Jorge De La Rosa with six walks, five doubles, a homer, and five RBI. Yadier Molina ($3,700) has six hits in 20 at bats with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Jhonny Peralta ($4,000) is 6-27(.222) with three walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI against De La Rosa. At least he dodges Matt Holliday, who has a homer and four RBI against De La Rosa.
Luckily for Edison Volquez, Michael Brantley is still hurt. Brantley is 7-11 in his career against Volquez. There are a few other Indians that could make noise though. Lonnie Chisenhall ($4,300) is 7-17(.412) with two walks, a double, a triple, and three RBI against Volquez. Jason Kipnis ($5,200) is 7-22(.318) with three walks, three doubles, and a solo homer. Carlos Santana ($5,000) is only 3-20, but two of those hits are home runs and he has walked seven times. Francisco Lindor ($4,900) only has three hits in 17 at bats, but he has four walks, a homer, and two RBI. Mike Napoli ($4,600) is only 3-15, but all of the hits have gone for extra bases. Napoli has four walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Volquez.
It’s a pretty safe bet to stack against Matt Garza. Especially when the stats support it! David Freese ($3,100) is only 4-20, but he has two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Garza. Matt Joyce ($3,800) hammers righties, and Garza is no exception. Joyce is 4-10 with a double, a homer, and four RBI. Andrew McCutchen ($4,700) only has five hits in 21 at bats (.238), but he has five walks, a homer, and two RBI. Gregory Polanco ($5,100) is 4-10 with two walks and a solo homer against Garza.
Cody Asche ($3,200), Peter Bourjos ($3,400), Cesar Hernandez ($3,800), Ryan Howard ($3,700), Tommy Joseph ($4,200), and Cameron Rupp ($3,600) have all hit solo home runs off of James Shields. If you are looking for a cheaper stack, this could be one that pays off big!
Next: More Notes For 9-20
Evan Gattis ($4,000) is 3-8 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Sean Manaea.
Clint Robinson ($2,500) is 3-8 with a homer and two RBI off of Jose Fernandez. Ryan Zimmerman ($2,500) is 4-14(.286) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Jayson Werth ($3,000) has just one hit in 16 at bats off of Fernandez, but it is a home run and he has driven in four.
Brandon Phillips ($3,100) is 7-21 with a double and three RBI. Lester does avoid Billy Hamilton though. Hamilton is 6-10 with two homers against Lester.
Yangervis Solarte ($3,600) is 4-8 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Archie Bradley.
Adam Jones ($4,300) is 4-13 with a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI against Eduardo Rodriguez. J.J. Hardy ($3,300) is 2-6 with walk, a double, and two RBI. Matt Wieters ($3,100) is only 2-10, but he has a walk, a homer, and two driven in.
Charlie Blackmon ($5,500) has six hits in ten at bats against Adam Wainwright with two doubles, a triple, and a RBI. Nolan Arenado ($4,900) is 3-9 with a double and a RBI.
Addison Russell ($4,100) has only faced Josh Smith once. He came away with a two run homer. Miguel Montero ($3,600) is 2-4 with a double and two RBI.
Billy Butler ($3,200) is 7-19(.368) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Drew Smyly. Chase Headley ($2,900) is only 2-7, but he has three walks and a solo homer. Brett Gardner‘s ($3,500) only hit in ten at bats against Smyly is a two run homer.
Matt Kemp ($4,600) walked and hit a solo homer in three at bats against Robert Gsellman on September 9th. What will he do for an encore?
Brian Dozier ($5,500) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Matt Boyd. Robbie Grossman ($4,400) has three hits in four at bats with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI. Jorge Polanco ($3,800) already has four hits in six at bats against Boyd with a double, a homer, and four RBI.
Welington Castillo ($3,900) has three singles in three tries with two RBI against Paul Clemens.
Jose Abreu ($4,700) is perfect with a walk, a single, a homer, and three RBI against Jake Thompson. Justin Morneau ($3,400) hit a solo off of Thompson in three at bats. Tim Anderson ($3,800) is 2-3 with a triple and two RBI.
Mike Trout ($5,400) is 5-19(.263) with three walks, two homers, and three RBI against A.J. Griffin. Albert Pujols ($3,800) only has two hits in 13 at bats against Griffin, but he has a homer and two RBI.
Miguel Cabrera ($4,300) is only 4-19 against Hector Santiago, but he has four walks, two homers, and four RBI against him. J.D. Martinez ($4,500) has six hits in 15 at bats with a double, two homers, and four RBI. Justin Upton ($4,500) is 2-7 with two walks, a homer, and two RBI off of Santiago.
Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200) is 4-12 with two walks, a homer, and four RBI against Hisashi Iwakuma. Michael Saunders ($2,800) is 1-3 with a solo homer against Iwakuma.
Jay Bruce ($3,500) is only 3-17(.176) against Julio Teheran, but he has two homers and five RBI against him. Lucas Duda ($3,400) is 7-23(.304) with four walks, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Teheran. Curtis Granderson ($4,500) is 6-23(.261) with seven walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI off of Teheran.
Carlos Gomez ($4,100) homered twice and drove in three in three at bats against Daniel Wright.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and for Week 3 in the NFL!