DraftKings MLB Picks For September 27
We have a full 15 games in the DraftKings main tournament tonight. There are also a few aces that could be making their last starts of the season, depending on if their team needs them on Sunday or not. We also have a crowded middle tier. 13 of the 30 pitchers top the $8,000 mark. Who are the best two to use on DraftKings? Let’s check the past stats to try to get a leg up on the competition.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Matt Koch has been brilliant out of the Arizona bullpen, allowing only one run in seven innings. That has earned him a start against the NL East champion Nationals. Oh, and their Cy Young candidate. This is a tough task for Koch, but since the Nats are unfamiliar with him and could be resting players, Koch could be a nice sleeper.
The Tigers were only 1-5 against Mike Clevinger in relief earlier this season. The one hit was a single by Justin Upton. Clevinger’s 4.65 ERA is a good reason to avoid this. The fact that he is facing Verlander makes him really hard to use.
Robert Stephenson‘s September struggles continue. He has given up 12 runs in just 11.2 innings pitched over his last three starts. I wouldn’t chance it against the Cardinals.
German Marquez pitched well against the Cardinals in his first major league start. He allowed only one run on four hits and a walk in five innings while striking out three. Marquez is making his next start against a decent Giants offense in a pitcher’s park. He could put up similar numbers against the Giants if you are going cheap on pitching.
Jose De Leon gave up three runs on five hits in six innings to the Padres in his first major league start. However, he racked up nine strikeouts. He has been unable to match that success in the two starts since, but don’t be surprised if he rings up a bunch of Padres again.
The Dodgers are 5-16 against Paul Clemens in relief appearances. Will they have the same success against him as a starter? Probably.
Daniel Mengden has never faced the Angels, but he has a 5.74 ERA in his rookie season. He started out well, but has a 7.40 ERA since July 1st. Don’t chance it here.
Ian Desmond is the only Ranger that has faced Jimmy Nelson. He is 1-3 with a walk against him. Nelson has struggled after a superb July, and is too much of a risk against the AL West Champion Rangers.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Max Scherzer ($14,200): The current Diamondbacks are only 11-65(.169) against Scherzer, but they have managed two homers and five RBI. That is where the fun ends for the hitters. Scherzer has racked up a whopping 27 strikeouts in just 65 at bats! His elite strikeout potential once again has him at the top of the heap.
Chris Sale ($14,000): As dominant as Scherzer’s numbers against Arizona are, Sale’s are even better against the Rays. The Rays are a pathetic 8-71(.113) with two homers, six RBI, and a staggering 30 strikeouts. You really can’t go wrong with either top option, but you likely need one of them. Fading both seems like a huge risk tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Julio Teheran ($9,500): Teheran has been very good this year, posting a 3.10 ERA and microscopic 1.03 WHIP. However, the Braves are so bad, he has just sux wins to show for it. Still, the Phillies are hitting just .221 off of him in 172 at bats with three homers, 11 runs, and 34 strikeouts. If you fade the top tier, Teheran is a good option, though he may miss out on the win.
Jerad Eickhoff ($9,100): The Braves are hitting .235 against Eickhoff in 81 at bats, but they have just one homer and four RBI. The down side is that he owns only 12 strikeouts. His lack of strikeouts leaves him little margin for error, but the history supports using him. It could be tough for him to scratch out a win against Teheran, and Teheran is worth the extra $400 for the strikeout potential.
Dark Horses:
Adam Wainwright ($7,900): The Reds are only hitting .234 in 192 at bats against Wainwright with just three homers and 14 runs scored. Wainwright is not known as a high strikeout pitcher, but he has 46 against the Reds, which is well above average. If you can’t pay for the top tier and get hitters you want, Wainwright could be a good option as the Cardinals cling to playoff hopes.
A.J. Griffin ($5,700): The current Brewers are just 5-29(.172) against Griffin with two runs and 11 strikeouts. Chris Carter his responsible for five strikeouts and only one hit in 11 at bats. This is a small sample size, but Griffin has proven he can handle most of this offense.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
There is a stack to be had against David Price. The Yankees are one of those teams that have hit him well in his career. Jacoby Ellsbury ($2,200) is 25-73(.342) with three walks, six doubles, two triples, a homer, and six RBI against Price. Starlin Castro ($3,300) already has five hits in 11 at bats against Price with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI. Didi Gregorius ($2,900) has eight hits in 18 at bats with a walk, two doubles, and four RBI. Chase Headley ($2,400) is 11-30(.367) with a walk, two doubles, a triple, and three RBI. Brian McCann ($3,100) could be worth using if he starts. McCann is 10-29(.345) against Price with a walk, three homers, and seven RBI. Mark Teixeira ($2,800) is only 15-70(.214), but he has six walks, three doubles, three homers, and nine RBI against Price.
There is a strong case for fading Justin Verlander as well. Cleveland has 52 runs scored in only 408 at bats against him. Lonnie Chisenhall ($2,700) is 11-37(.297) with two walks, three doubles, a homer, and five RBI against Verlander. Coco Crisp ($2,700) is 10-31(.323) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Francisco Lindor ($3,800) has seven hits in 17 at bats already with two walks, a double, a triple, a homer, and an impressive seven RBI. Mike Napoli ($3,100) is 7-30(.233) with seven walks, a double, two homers, and seven RBI against Verlander. Jose Ramirez ($3,900) is 6-19(.316) with two walks, three doubles, and a RBI. Tyler Naquin ($2,900) has two hits in ten at bats. One of them is a solo homer. Carlos Santana ($4,200) is just 13-63(.206) against Verlander, but he has eight walks, two doubles, seven homers, and 11 RBI against him.
Yoenis Cespedes ($4,200) is 6-17(.353) with three doubles, a triple, and two RBI against Tom Koehler. Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,700) is 5-10 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI. Travis d’Arnaud ($2,500) is 7-17(.412) with four walks, two doubles, and a solo homer. Curtis Granderson ($4,900) is only 7-29(.241) against Koehler, but he has three walks, two homers, and three RBI. Jose Reyes ($4,500) has five hits in only seven at bats with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. Michael Conforto ($3,700) only has two hits in ten at bats against Tom Koehler, but he has a walk, a homer, and four RBI.
John Lackey has come back down to earth recently, and now he gets a Pirate team that is hitting .306 against him. John Jaso ($2,700) is 8-22(.364) with a walk, a homer, and five RBI. Matt Joyce ($3,200) is 10-28(.357) with four walks, two homers, and seven RBI against Lackey. Gregory Polanco ($4,200) is 6-10 with a pair of walks against Lackey, but has no counting stats. Sean Rodriguez ($3,600) has three hits in ten at bats with a solo homer. Andrew McCutchen ($4,500) is 4-15(.267) with a walk and a solo homer. Francisco Cervelli ($2,800) is 5-11 with a solo homer against Lackey as well.
Jose Altuve ($4,900) is 10-22(.455) off of Felix Hernandez with two walks, three doubles, and a RBI. Jason Castro ($2,700) is only 3-17(.176), but he has a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI off of King Felix. Evan Gattis ($3,800) only has one hit and a walk in six at bats, but the hit is a two run homer. Jake Marisnick ($2,600) has a single and a double in hits two at bats against King Felix and has also driven in two runs.
Anthony Rizzo ($5,500) is 4-1 with a double, three homers, and five RBI against Ryan Vogelsong. Miguel Montero ($3,600) is worth using if he starts. Montero is 9-32(.281) with three walks, three doubles, and four RBI against Vogelsong. Jason Heyward ($3,700) is 6-16(.375) with four walks, a double, and a homer, and two RBI. Kris Bryant ($5,100) has two hits in six at bats with a walk and a solo homer. Dexter Fowler ($5,300) is 5-19(.263) with a walk, two doubles, and two triples against Vogelsong.
The A’s aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they have had no problems hitting Ricky Nolasco. Yonder Alonso ($3,100) is 4-13 with three walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Nolasco. Ryon Healy ($2,500) has a solo homer and a single in four at bats against Nolasco. Max Muncy ($3,300), has a two run shot in four at bats. Danny Valencia ($3,400) is 2-9 with a double and a solo homer.
Just because Aaron Sanchez is back in the rotation for the stretch run doesn’t mean you should rush to use him against Baltimore. The Orioles have hit him pretty well. Pedro Alvarez ($3,400) is 2-10 with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Sanchez. Chris Davis ($3,900) has crushed Sanchez. Davis is 6-14(.429) with eight walks, a double, three homers, and four RBI against him. Matt Wieters ($3,200) has two hits in seven at bats with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Sanchez. Manny Machado ($3,800) is 6-21(.286) with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Jonathan Schoop ($2,700) has seven hits already in just 15 at bats against Sanchez, but they are all singles and he has no counting stats.
Kevin Gausman has had a nice season, but the Blue Jays still have no trouble with him. Darwin Barney ($2,700) has four hits in seven at bats with a solo homer. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,100) and Jose Bautista ($4,300) have both homered against Gausman, but they are a combined 2-23 with three RBI. Russell Martin ($3,300) has three hits in four at bats with three walks and two RBI. Michael Saunders ($3,200) is 2-5 with a solo homer off of Gausman. Troy Tulowitzki ($4,000) has one hit in two at bats. It is a two run homer.
Next: More Notes For 9-27
Jake Lamb ($3,800) is 2-6 with a solo homer against Max Scherzer. Chris Owings ($2,500) has three hits in ten at bats with a double and two RBI. Yasmany Tomas ($2,400) only has one hit in six at bats, but it is a solo homer.
Freddie Freeman ($5,100) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Jerad Eickhoff.
Adam Duvall ($3,900) has two singles and two RBI in eight at bats against Adam Wainwright. Brandon Phillips ($3,400) is 18-61(.295) with four walks, three doubles, a homer, and five RBI. Joey Votto ($5,200) is only 9-40(.225), but he has five walks, three doubles, a homer, and five RBI. Tucker Barnhart ($2,700) has two hits in five at bats with a solo homer off of Wainwright.
Yangervis Solarte ($3,600) has a single, a homer, and three RBI in two at bats against Jose De Leon.
Logan Forsythe ($3,800) only has one hit in seven at bats, but it is a homer and he has driven in two. Mikie Mahtook ($2,000) has a solo homer in three at bats against Sale, and could be worth a flier.
Marcell Ozuna ($3,000) is 2-5 with a homer and two RBI against Noah Syndergaard.
Robinson Cano ($4,600) is 2-6 with a walk, two homers, and four RBI against Mike Fiers. Kyle Seager ($4,400) has three hits in seven at bats with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Dae-Ho Lee ($3,600) is 1-4 with a solo homer off Fiers.
Hanley Ramirez ($4,900) has a single, a homer, and two RBI in his two appearances against Luis Cessa.
Carlos Gonzalez ($4,100) is 2-5 with a homer and four RBI against Matt Moore. Nick Hundley ($3,300) is 1-2 with a solo homer. Nolan Arenado ($4,600) has two hits in four at bats with a walk, two doubles, and a RBI off of Moore.
Cody Asche ($2,700) is 6-23(.261) with a walk, a double, a homer, and five RBI against Julio Teheran. Ryan Howard ($3,000) is just 5-26(.192), but he has two doubles and two solo homers.
Brian Dozier ($4,200) is 4-13 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI against Ian Kennedy. Joe Mauer ($3,500) has just two hits in 14 at bats, but one of them is a solo homer. Logan Schafer ($2,300) has four hits in eight at bats with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Kennedy.
Kendrys Morales ($4,300) only has one hit in five at bats against Jose Berrios, but it is a three run homer. Alcides Escobar ($3,700) has two hits in four at bats with a double and two RBI. Jarrod Dyson ($3,900) also has a walk and two RBI.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from our experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and stay tuned for advice on Week 4 in the NFL!