FanDuel NFL: Picks and Pivots for Week 5

Welcome to the NFL edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy football column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NFL lineup! The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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With a full Sunday of NFL action on tap, let’s jump into the top plays to build your FanDuel NFL lineup around!

Sep 17, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looks on from the sideline in the first quarter of the game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Colorado Buffaloes at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

Tom Brady ($8,700): Guess who’s back and ready to unleash hell on the league that made him sit out the first four weeks of the season for some deflated footballs?

Heading into Week 5, there were two players that regardless of salary I was going to look to as the foundation plays for my FanDuel NFL lineups and the Patriots QB was #1 on that list.

If you want to purely play the narrative here, this sets up perfectly for the “Me Against the World” Brady and the Patriots just unleashing a barrage of points on the helpless Browns defense. Tell me you cannot see a scenario where Brady comes out in a no huddle and just relentlessly pummels the Browns defense and puts up monster totals that will have every major sports network leading off their NFL coverage with “Brady’s Revenge.” It is entirely too likely for me to even remotely entertain the fade here but let’s step back and look at actual statistics as well.

The Browns defense has given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season having surrendered two touchdowns to Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco in Weeks 1 & 2 and three touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins in the last two weeks.

So take the narrative out for a second and realize that the floor for Brady sits at a 2-3 touchdown day considering what the Browns have already surrendered to much less effective quarterbacks.

As Matt Roger’s noted in his FanDuel QB Preview for Week 5, Brady is the top projected scoring QB at Fantasy Pros and I expect he will be a popular choice. However when I look at the match up here, Brady feels like one of the safest plays on the board and the narrative around his return sets you up for a player with immeasurable upside.

If you read my articles each week, I am a big believer in not being contrarian just for the sake of being different. This is a spot where I am happy to eat chalk and let the other’s try to be different while I lock in the best QB play on the board. In FanDuel NFL, there are so many QB options that even as the “chalk” I would still not expect Brady to be owned in more than 15% of entries so I will lock him in and try to differentiate elsewhere.

Terrance West ($6,400) While paying up at QB is my preferred strategy, that will require us to find value in other spots and I believe running back is a great place to find it. My favorite value play on the board is Ravens RB Terrance West as he gets an ideal match up to exploit against Washington.

In our FanDuel RB Preview, Matt Rogers called out West as one of his top value plays, and as the clear lead dog in Baltimore, this price point is simply too low against an awful Redskins defense.

Washington has given up the second most fantasy points to running backs this season, allowing two rushing touchdowns per game through the first weeks which only increases the appeal for West. After being inserted into the lineup last week, West responded with 21 carries for 113 yards and with Justin Forsett gone, this is West’s gig until further notice. Keep in mind that the Ravens will get Kenneth Dixon, the impressive rookie, back this week but I would not expect him to be overly involved in his first game back and the Ravens will continue to lean on West to carry the load.

Melvin Gordon ($7,700): So we just got done singing the praises of a running back who tore up the Oakland defense last week, a defense that has given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing backs. Now what if I told you that you could get a running back who is averaging the 3rd most points per game over the last three weeks, in a top 5 match up but is somehow priced outside the top 5 on FanDuel?

This may be one of the easiest picks for me this week as I love the stability that Gordon provides for your lineup at a reasonable value. Over the last three weeks, Gordon is putting up over 18 points per game which admittedly is completely held up by his ability to find pay dirt! Gordon has only rushed for 71 yards the last two weeks but has found the end zone three times over that span.

The offset for me however is that without Danny Woodhead you are seeing Gordon’s involvement in the passing game significantly increase as he has received 7 targets in back to back weeks.

In targeting Gordon, you are getting a player who is being fed 25-30 touches a game in a top 5 match so on one hand you can call him a relatively safe play, but his touchdown dependency the last two weeks does present some risk. I am happy to shoulder that risk as Gordon is the key centerpiece to this San Diego offense and if he can break out for more yardage while continuing his passing game contributions, this could be the top scoring RB in Week 5!

I mentioned earlier that I had two targets heading into this week before I even opened the FanDuel pricing and Antonio Brown ($9,600) was the one non-QB I wanted to ensure was locked into all of my lineups.

Brown gets to face-off with the Jets, a team that has stopped the run week after week but has been consistently beaten in the secondary. Brown to me is essentially the mirror image of how I feel about Tom Brady this week in that he has one of the safest floors but also has the highest upside of anyone at this position in this spot.

Brown is averaging the second most points per game of any WR on FanDuel and the second most targets (11.25) of any WR in football. This is a spot where I want to pay the freight and lock in the safety of a high floor and a player who could easily be the top point producer on the day against a suspect Jets passing defense at home.

Julian Edelman ($7,000) at this price point is an easy plug and play and is the best stacking option to build into your lineup that utilizes Tom Brady at QB. I read this amazing stat from Pro Football Focus, that Tom Brady has a 100 passer rating every year since 2012 when targeting Edelman who is one of the safest plays on the board this week. With Rob Gronkowski still not 100%, I expect Brady to continue to rely heavily on Edelman this week and he makes for a great stacking option in the New England offense.

Michael Crabtree ($6,900) has racked up 23 targets over the last two weeks and now faces a Chargers defense that lost top corner Jason Verrett for the season. Crabtree scored a touchdown in both games last year against San Diego and with the Chargers secondary missing their top cover corner, this is a great spot to target the Raiders passing game.

Jesse James ($4,500): After giving up back to back big weeks to tight ends, the Jets will face off with Pittsburgh where one of my favorite bargain plays can be utilized. Jesse James has essentially been a “touchdown or bust” fantasy option as he has not seen more than 5 targets in any of the last three weeks but this is a very favorable spot for James.

More from FanSided

The last two weeks the Jets have given up 12 catches and over 200 yards receiving to Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham. Full disclosure, I am a huge Jets fan and watching every game has allowed me to see how consistently they allow tight ends to run free over the last two years. The Jets drafted Darron Lee this year in the first round to specifically address this need but Kelce and Graham continued to exploit this weakness as a great way to attack the Jets through the air. James should have no issues running routes against the Jets and at this price point can provide significant value and upside in the lethal Steelers passing attack.

Josh Lambo ($4,500) With the weather concerns up and down the East Coast, I will keep my kicking choices to indoor games or spots on the West Coast! Lambo has been a consistent scoring option with back to back games of 11 FanDuel points and I expect the Chargers to move the ball with ease against the Raiders this weekend.

Buffalo Bills ($4,600) To be honest, defense is brutal this week and there are no plays that really stand out on the board so this is a great spot to shed a few hundred dollars in salary to your skill spots. The Rams are 31st overall in offense this season and the Bills are averaging 13 points per game as a defense which is the third best in the league. At a cheap price point and the fact that the game is at home, the Bills are a great value choice to plug-in at defense.

Next: Week 5 FanDuel & DraftKings Value Plays

Best of luck in Week 5 and Picks and Pivots will see you back here for the Monday night slate!