Fantasy Basketball: Harden, Better, Faster, Stronger
By Craig Bozic
Fantasy Basketball: Harden, Better, Faster, Stronger
So preseason games are now underway, and the new season of the NBA is just around the corner. So what better way to start off than stating my case for my number one overall selection, James Harden?
An incredible off-season in the world of hoops has changed the mapping of fantasy basketball once again with Kevin Durant moving to the Warriors (a move which has many a person scratching their heads on the knock on effect of the values of Stephen Curry, Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson), coaching changes, an Olympic basketball summer, and a summer of free agency in a players market.
With the dynamics changing, it appears that there is no clear cut favorite for the number one overall pick this year. Or is there?
Depending on which way side the fence you are on, you can make the case for any Russell Westbrook, Durant, Curry, James Harden or even Karl-Anthony Towns depending on the settings and dynamics of your league. This new found indecision brings an interesting element at the top of draft boards for the 2016/17 season.
From what I have seen so far, many people have Westbrook as the number one selection in fantasy drafts this year, but with the departures of Serge Ibaka and Durant, I think there leaves question marks of the creative ability of the Thunder’s offense. That leads me to believe it will be more predictable, especially given the lack of options to stretch the floor, likely clogging up the lane for Westbrook in most five man sets. Durant, Curry, Klay and Draymond on the same team also brings question marks. Surely the usage rate of all has to suffer, right? And what about the blowouts?
So here is my case for The Beard as the number one overall selection:
James Harden, Shooting Guard, Houston Rockets.
One could argue that the biggest changing factor in the value of James Harden is the hiring of Mike D’Antoni, and who could disagree? Excitement is high in Houston with the new acquisitions and a new found team harmony that can only help. The JB Bickerstaff experiment is over, let the D’Antoni era begin!
With Dwight Howard now out of the fold, and with recent signings Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, I can only see positive things from the counting stats monster moving into the 2016/17 season. Harden will no doubt enter the season as another fantasy darling coming off yet another strong season in which he averaged 38.1 minutes a game, averaged 19.7 shots a game and had a usage rate of 32.5% (2nd only to DeMarcus Cousins). Combine that with the fact that over the past two seasons Harden has only missed one game and that gives you the belief that there are not many safer at accumulating the counting stats as the Western Division All Star.
Now there is always the warning flag with Harden in turnover leagues, and of course some streaky shooting periods which can often lead to frustrating FG% at times. Harden averaged 4.6 turnovers per game last season, the most of his career and shot at a 43.9% success rate, somewhat being hampered by the large amount of shots taken per game.
I am of the belief that Harden could be in line for improved shooting efficiency from the floor helped by recent free agent signings Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, something which has already been evident in pre-season, primarily from the benefits of positioning Ryan Anderson. Now obviously both Anderson and Gordon come with injury risk, but with outstanding ability from 3 point range I believe this, combined with Howard’s departure, will help space the floor enabling Harden to drive to the lane with greater success and limit the amount of bad shots taken throughout the season. It should also enable him to maintain the high assists total as the primary ball handler (Harden averaged 7.5 assists in 2015/16) as Houston should, with the recent acquisitions, move up significantly from their efficiency from beyond the arc (in which they finished 22nd out of 30 in the 2015/16 season).
With the way the modern day NBA has evolved, shooting guards at the elite level have diminished in fantasy hoops. Being able to secure the unique stat lines that Harden puts up from a weak position can help give additional flexibility to your draft plans come draft day.
Next: NFL DraftKings Picks For Week 5
With an uptempo offense, new personnel who will create additional space in the lane, and better deep shooting looks as well as a history of fantasy success, are you going to bet against Harden being the number one player overall come seasons end?
You can find me on Twitter @storytelling41 for minor league baseball and basketball news.