DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 5 Top Plays
By Ty Wrage
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 5 Top Plays
If you read this column last week, odds are you’re coming into this week with more money in your bankroll. Derek Carr and Michael Crabtree connected for 3 touchdowns, all 3 running back plays had monster days, and Emmanuel Sanders had yet another big week. If you didn’t read last week, though, it’s never too late to get in on the winnings with my top DraftKings NFL picks for Week 5.
At first glance, this is a really nice slate for DFS purposes. The Raiders/Chargers game is the highest Vegas total on the board, but games like Steelers/Jets, Packers/Giants and Bears/Colts all stand out to me as well.
DraftKings NFL Picks: Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz ($6,400): I’ll be the first to admit that I absolutely doubted Carson Wentz would be any good in his rookie season. Through 3 weeks, he’s thrown for 5 TD’s, no picks, and 769 yards while leading the Eagles to a 3-0 record, so it’s safe to say I was wrong on that one. There’s no reason to think he won’t continue to produce in his week 5 matchup vs. the Lions.
So far, Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Vegas has Philly as just 3 point favorites here, so the game should be close enough for Wentz to see four quarters of work. Really the only matchup to avoid in the Lions’ secondary is Darius Slay, and Wentz’s favorite targets, Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, will avoid his coverage for most of the game. Slay plays on the outside, and both of those guys spend most of their time on the inside.
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Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200)
After a 43-14 stomping of the Chiefs in Le’Veon Bell‘s first game back from suspension, it’s safe to say the Steelers are back. The Steelers have one of the highest implied team-totals on the board against the Jets, who have been awful vs. the pass this year. They’ve been elite defending the run though, so I think this is a situation where they funnel teams into passing more than usual.
The Steelers used Bell as a number 2 WR last week at times, so it shows that they aren’t afraid to switch into a pass-heavy system if they can’t run the ball well, which is looking to be the case vs. the Jets. I’m not afraid to target Buster Skrine or Marcus Williams, and Revis Island is looking more like Revis Resort this season. If you’re paying up at QB this week, Big Ben is my top pick.
Others I Like: Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick
DraftKings NFL Picks: Running Backs
Demarco Murray ($7,200): I recommended playing Murray against the Texans last week, and he delivered with 95 yards rushing and two touchdowns. If we’re going to play Murray against Houston, then I’m definitely firing him up against the Dolphins this week. The Titans are 3.5 point underdogs, but Murray gets enough work in the pass game that game script doesn’t affect him a whole lot.
The Dolphins are very exploitable on the ground, and while personnel has some to do with that, that is what their scheme is intended to give up. They run a lot of what’s called Wide 9 defense, where they put more guys on the line of scrimmage to gain an edge on the outside. This leaves the middle open, where Murray will be able to have a lot of success.
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Jordan Howard ($5,200): Another pick from last week’s article! Howard’s price jumped (as it should) to $5,200, but I still feel that’s too cheap for a back in one of the top spots on the board. The Bears showed full confidence in Howard as a starter, giving him 23 carries, which he took advantage of for 111 yards. The Lions’ front seven is bad, but the Colts have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
This game should stay close, but the Bears like Howard as a receiving option out of the backfield too, so like Murray above, game script isn’t a killer for Howard. With Kevin White now on the IR and Jay Cutler still out, I would imagine the Bears will stay committed to running the ball, which means good things for Howard in a plus matchup with Indianapolis.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,000): With Adrian Peterson out of the picture, the Vikings have made it very clear that McKinnon is their primary back going forward. McKinnon got 18 carries last week against the Giants along with 5 targets in the passing game. Matt Asiata might still steal a goal-line carry or two, but he’s been really inefficient this year, and I don’t imagine the Vikings giving him much workload at all.
Last week I said that Houston’s run defense gets a lot worse without J.J. Watt, and Demarco Murray promptly ran for 95 yards and two scores. Well, Watt is still out, so expect more of the same. The Vikings are committed to running the ball, and with the Texans so good at defending the pass, McKinnon might get even more work than usual.
Others I Like: Melvin Gordon, LaGarrette Blount, C.J. Anderson, D’Andre Washington, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell
DraftKings NFL Picks: Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,500): There are rumors of the Giants possibly benching OBJ for his childish antics, but in his Week 5 matchup vs. Green Bay, he shouldn’t have much to complain about. Recency bias will drive his ownership down lower than it should be, but coming off matchups against Josh Norman and Xavier Rhodes, Beckham is in a great spot to bounce back against the Sam Shields-less Packers.
Without Shields, the Packers have really struggled to contain opposing WR1s, giving up the second most to the other team’s top wideouts. If Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones Jr., and Allen Robinson can go off against Green Bay, OBJ should be in line for a huge night. He’ll draw a lot of coverage from the second year Damarious Randall from Arizona State, who isn’t prepared by any means for a receiver of his caliber.
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T.Y. Hilton ($7,400): The Colts season has been a disaster (they’ve only been leading for 12.5% of their snaps, worst in the league), but they’re 4.5 point favorites against an injury-torn Bears squad. With Donte Moncrief still out, T.Y. Hilton has been getting a very large workload in the Colts’ offense. He’s gotten double digit targets in every game so far with 12, 11, 11, and 10. This is the kind of floor that we want to target in cash games, especially on a full-PPR site like DraftKings.
Kyle Fuller is still out for the Bears, so Tracy Porter will likely shadow Hilton. Porter has been a hot mess this season, and with all the injuries to the Bears’ front seven, they’ll have a hard time getting much of a pass rush on Andrew Luck. The Bears’ safeties, Adrian Amos and Harold Jones-Quartey, are not good, so I think there’s a chance we see Hilton use his elite speed to get behind the Chicago secondary a couple times.
Jordan Matthews ($6,800): Carson Wentz has been phenomenal in his debut season, and Jordan Matthews has been the main beneficiary. He has 26 targets through 3 games, and the next closest (Nelson Agholor) has just 15. He also has 4 red zone targets, so he has touchdown upside here too.
Other than Darius Slay, the Lions’ secondary is very exploitable. J-Matt lines up in the slot on 66% of his snaps, though, so he won’t be seeing much of Slay, who is always outside. Instead, Matthews will see a lot of Quandre Diggs in Nickel packages, who is one of the worst slot corners in the league. Having Zach Ertz back from injury will only help because the Lions won’t be able to focus on shutting down just Matthews. Matthews is cash-game playable, and stack him with Wentz in tournaments.
DeVante Parker ($5,000): Parker managed just 2 catches on 3 targets last Thursday against the Bengals, but there’s no better cure for a game like that than a matchup with Perrish Cox and the Titans’ secondary. The Dolphins have all but abandoned their run game, which is understandable considering they have Arian Foster‘s corpse, Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake making up their backfield.
Perrish Cox gave up 7 catches, 81 yards and a touchdown to Will Fuller last week, and judging by how the Dolphins have used Parker in the past, I imagine he’ll get more than the 9 targets that Fuller got. Parker is also Miami’s premier red zone and deep threat receiver, so there is massive upside for tournaments.
Others I Like: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Amari Cooper, Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Landry, Emmanuel Sanders, DeSean Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, Sterling Shepard, Steve Smith, Jamison Crowder, Quincy Enunwa, Eddie Royal
DraftKings NFL Picks: Tight Ends
Zach Ertz ($3,500): After being out for two weeks with an injury, Ertz is scheduled to return this week in a great matchup vs. the Lions. In his only week of action against the Browns in Week 1, Ertz caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 58 yards. With Carson Wentz more comfortable and the Lions predicted to keep it closer than the Browns did, Ertz should get plenty of opportunity.
The Lions have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and a tight end has scored a touchdown on them on 3/4 weeks, with the Delanie Walker-less Titans being the only ones to not do it. At just $3,500, Ertz comes at a massive discount and can help you pay up for some of the studs in great matchups this week.
Richard Rodgers ($2,700): When we think of the Packers’ weapons in the passing game, we think of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. However, Aaron Rodgers still likes his tight ends; he’s targeted tight ends 20 times this year, which is more than Cobb. With Jared Cook unlikely to play this week, Richard Rodgers should soak up most of those targets.
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The Giants are one of the best matchups in the league for opposing tight ends. Their safeties and linebackers are not good in coverage, so Rodgers should be open plenty. Last year, Rodgers caught 8 touchdowns, and the Packers targeted him quite extensively in the red zone. Remember, at this price, all it takes is an 11-yard touchdown pass for him to hit 3x value for cash games, so he’s a great value play in all formats.
Others I Like: Jordan Reed, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry
DraftKings NFL Picks: Defenses
New England Patriots ($3,700): The Cleveland Browns are really bad, and with Cody Kessler starting at quarterback, they become really, really bad. With Tom Brady returning, the Patriots should jump out to a quick lead, and the Pats defense will almost never be playing with poor field position. With all the garbage time they should get, there’s more of a chance for interceptions and sacks as the Browns try to play catch-up. If you’re paying up for defense, New England is the top option.
Buffalo Bills ($3,100): The Bills defense is starting to look everything it was supposed to be last season, and it’s going under the radar a bit. After stomping on the Cardinals and shutting out the Patriots, they get a juicy matchup with Case Keenum and the Rams. This Rams offense is really poor, and the Buffalo defense won’t make many mistakes. For a value defense that should be pretty safe, go with the Bills.
Others I Like: Broncos, Vikings, Rams