Rangers Elvis Andrus: 2017 Regression Candidate?
By Brad Kelly
Elvis Andrus arguably had his best all around season for the Texas Rangers in 2016. But, can fantasy owners trust his success heading into 2017?
The Texas Rangers were swiftly eliminated from the playoffs at the hands of the Texas Rangers, further sparking one of the best rivalries in baseball. The Rangers had another great season, but they failed to attain a championship yet again. One player they cannot pin their offseason exit on this season though, is shortstop Elvis Andrus.
Elvis Andrus has seemingly been around forever, making the upcoming 2017 season, his ninth pro campaign. Andrus has by no means been a fantasy dynamo during his career, but fantasy owners have been willing to routinely invest him as it always seems that a breakout was a possibility.
His career best fantasy season was in 2013, where he posted a, .271/4 HR/67 RBI/42 SB/91 R season. The steals clearly put him among the elite, and his counting stats were all respectable. Everything appeared to be coming together for him, and fantasy owners were more than willing to invest a mid round pick for him in 2014.
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Unfortunately, Andrus would go out and produce a lackluster, .263/2 HR/41 RBI/27 SB/72 R, line in 2014. If that did not sour fantasy owners enough, his performance in 2015 was even more ghastly, .258/7 HR/62 RBI/25 SB/69 R line.
Entering this season he was well off fantasy owners’ radar. Even with the MI usually being a weak position to fill, owners were willing to look elsewhere.
As unpredictable as Andrus is, owners have to give him credit for his continued 25+ SB production, and the fact that he stays on the field. He has never played in less than 145 games in his career, a rare feat nowadays.
As the Rangers quickly jumped out to a big lead in the A.L. West, Andrus’ efforts surely helped. He finishes the season with a, .302/8 HR/69 RBI/24 SB/75 R/.800 OPS line. This is easily his best all around season, as the HR, AVG, RBI, and OPS were all career highs.
Fantasy owners are now left in the same predicament as in 2013. Do we trust Andrus heading into next season? The simple answer is, no.
Andrus is a solid MLB player and his durability is commendable, but his batted ball data does lead me to believe that he is capable of repeating his 2016 success.
The main bugaboo with Andrus has been his AVG fluctuations. He is a career .274 hitter, but just between the last two seasons, his AVG has jumped by nearly .50 points.
His BABIP this season came in at a .333 clip, a .21 uptick from his career average. While BABIP is not always the best indicator, .333 does tend to range on the high side of things.
Looking further into his batted ball data, nearly nothing about his rates changed that would lead owners to point to where his success stemmed from.
Last season his batted ball stats were as followed, 21% LD, 47 % GB, 31% FB, 55% Med contact, and 27% Hard contact rates.
In 2016, 23% LD, 47% GB, 29% FB, 55% Med contact, and 27% Hard contact rates.
Those lines are nearly identical, leading one to wonder if a simple BABIP jump could be the difference. I will admit that his .283 BABIP was on the low side of things in 2015, so the .333 could be things evening themselves out, leaving fantasy owners to deduce that it will rest somewhere in the middle in 2017.
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Therefore, in the case of a player like Andrus where his AVG numbers often decides his value, owners should not fall for Andrus again. He should be targeted as nothing more than a late round MI dart throw or waiver wire claim for those who just need a source of steals.
Elvis Andrus is just too hard to trust in fantasy.