DraftKings NHL Picks: October 12th
DraftKings NHL Picks: October 12th
TOR vs. OTT (-145), O/U: 5.5
STL vs. CHI (-135), O/U: 5
CGY vs. EDM (-130), O/U: 5.5
LA vs. SJ (-120), O/U: 5
I hope you’re as excited as I am. Once the NBA season starts, we’ll be fully immersed in sports heaven and everything in the world will feel right again. Today marks the start of the 2016-2017 NHL season, and I have high hopes as we move forward in fantasy hockey season!
Seeing as it’s only the first game of the season, I will be tightening up my bankroll slightly and waiting to gather more accurate data in order to make a better day to day predictive analysis. Below, is a list of a few key metrics that I’ll be using throughout the year:
iCorsi – iCorsi represents total shot attempts = (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots)
iCF60 – iCorsi per 60 mins of ice time
Zone Starts – In which zone does a line or player tend to start his shift
PDO – PDO = Shooting % + Save %. PDO aims to quantify variance and indicate when a team may be due to regress back towards the mean.
Minutes Played – Pretty self-explanatory, we want guys that will have the opportunity to produce.
Line Combinations/PP Units – While not a statistic, we want to target players that receive more ice time and also play with higher caliber players.
Pace of play – I’ll be looking to target games that involve teams that take, and allow, a high volume of shots. Think the opposite of the Scott Stevens‘ Devils teams. We’ll be avoiding teams that aim to trap through the neutral zone and play defensively.
Top Plays
Sam Bennett – CGY (C) – $3700
Sam Bennett is one of my favorite players sub $4000. Bennett will be playing on the second line and also running with the second power play unit. We don’t have any current data to work with, but last year, Bennett had an iCorsi/60 (iCorsi per 60 mins) of 12.00. Bennett is way too cheap for a guy that put up 36 points last year.
Dustin Brown – LA (W) – $4100
LA stands out from a pace perspective. They ranked 2nd in shots for, and ranked 3rd in shots against last year. I’ll be targeting this game as a whole, but Dustin Brown is very cheap for a player playing on the first line as well as the first power play unit.
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Jake Muzzin – LA (D) – $5400
Jake Muzzin is an elite fantasy option on defense at a discounted price. Last year, Muzzin’s iCorsi/60 was 14.12, which ranked him as the seventh highest defenseman in this category. Muzzin will be part of LA’s first defensive pairing and also skate with the second power play unit. While LA is a road dog, Muzzin should be able to rack up enough shots and blocked shots to reach value.
Robby Fabbri – STL (W) – $4300
St. Louis is another road dogs, which may drive down ownership for the winger, Robby Fabbri. Fabbri is another cheap option who should be considered if you like the Blues chances tonight. Fabbri will be on the top line as well as playing with the 2nd power play unit. Last year Fabbri’s iCorsi/60 was 12.25.
Nazem Kadri – TOR (C) – $5300
Toronto will head to Ottawa to kick of the season. As of right now, there has been some moderate reverse line movement in favor of the leafs and will be something to watch as we get closer to puck drop. That being said, I really want to fit Nazem Kadri into my lineups. Kadri will be centering the first line, in addition to playing on the second power play unit. Kadri has an excellent fantasy floor, as he ranked 8th in total shots (in even strength), and had a iCorsi/60 of 18.74, last year.
Other players to consider: Mike Hoffman, Teddy Purcell, Alec Martinez, Oscar Klefbom