Fantasy Football: Who's Real, Who's Fake?

With five weeks down in the fantasy football season, things are finally starting to pick up. There’s still a ton of season left to play, but it’s starting to get late early in fantasy seasons, where playoffs start in week 12 or 13. I wrote about who you should sell high/buy low after a few weeks of the season, and now I want to take a look at which players are for real, and which will fade off as the season continues to progress.

Fantasy Football: Real

Matt Ryan

It’s time for me to confess: I was a big Ryan-hater prior to this season’s resurgence. He’s completely shut me up, posting league-leading fantasy numbers after five weeks of play. His 119 points (standard ESPN scoring) ranks #1 among all players in the league. He has the most passing yards in the league (1,740), and his 12 touchdowns are only behind Ben Roethlisberger‘s 15 for the most in football.

I think Ryan is for real this year; he has formidable weapons outside of Julio Jones (Freeman and Coleman are the best running back duo in the league right now), and the Falcons’ defense will force this team to score a lot of points to keep winning games. I’m not suggesting to trade for Ryan, but if you have him, he’s certainly living up to expectations and it looks like you have a top-5 fantasy quarterback locked up for the season.

Ezekiel Elliott

Zeke came into 2016 with the highest fantasy football expectations for a rookie of all time. Five weeks in, he is certainly living up to the hype and then some. The rookie from Ohio State leads the entire league in rushing (546 yards) and already has five touchdowns. The Cowboys’ offensive line is playing their best football, which has made it easy for the #4 draft pick; On 117 touches, Elliott has only seven broken tackles.

Elliott’s 87 fantasy points are second among running backs, and if you couldn’t already tell, I think he’s for real. The only reason he’s on this list (want to focus on players who are more surprisingly for real) is because it’s worth noting his early success considering his hefty expectations. He’s living up to the hype and then some, and I don’t expect that to change unless he goes down with an injury.

Carlos Hyde

Hyde had a lot of expectations coming into the season, for better or worse. He has a ton of talent, but questions and doubts stemmed from his injury risk and lack of talent on his team. So far, so good for Hyde, who has yet to be sidelined because of injury, and has overcome his terrible offense to land in the top five in fantasy scoring among running backs.

In fact, Hyde is #4 on the list with 75 points on 377 yards and six touchdowns. He is the clear #1 back and may even receive a boost in production with the 49ers deciding to roll the dice with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback this week against the Bills. Kaepernick provides a solid run threat, which should free Hyde up for even more production. If he stays healthy, this kid is for real.

Marvin Jones

Jones has been the biggest surprise for me this season — I don’t think anyone expected his production to land him in the top five of fantasy scoring among receivers. Through five weeks, he’s the fourth most productive fantasy wide receiver in the league. He has 67 points on 519 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

A lot of people expected Jones to be the #2 receiver next to Golden Tate, but it quickly became the Marvin Jones show in Detroit. He’s Matthew Stafford‘s clear favorite receiver, and his play speaks for itself. Jones is for real and isn’t going away anytime soon.

Fantasy Football: Fake

Melvin Gordon

I wrote about selling Gordon high here, and I still feel the same about him a couple of weeks later. Gordon’s fifth in fantasy scoring among running backs with 75 points, but his seven touchdowns is the major reason why.

Gordon is the only running back in the top 10 with less than 300 rushing yards (besides Tevin Coleman, who has been more productive/used as a receiver than a running back). Gordon’s production has relied on his touchdowns, and once they fall, so will his production. If I’m a Gordon owner, I’m trying to sell him right now and no later. His production will drop, and he will not be in the top 10, yet alone top five, come season’s end.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree has been outstanding in Oakland, and I really think he’s a big reason why they’re having so much success on offense this year. But his early season fantasy production is certain to regress along with his touchdowns. He’s seventh in scoring among fantasy receivers, but has only had one 100-yard receiving game. He has five touchdowns, but three in one game.

Crabtree is certainly a nice flex play on certain weeks, but his production is going to dip as the season progresses, making me skeptical of his true value as a fantasy receiver for 16 weeks. I think his early numbers tell a deceiving story, and I think after a few more weeks we will see a decrease in fantasy scoring.

CJ Anderson

Anderson had a strong start to the 2016 season, but his production and usage is trending downward as the season progresses. He’s currently 11th in fantasy scoring among running backs with 58 fantasy points, but a bunch of those points come from early in the season. In his first two games, he totaled 232 yards and three touchdowns; but since then, he has just 155 yards and one touchdown in three games.

Next: FanDuel NFL Week 6 QB Plays

More worrisome for Anderson owners is the emergence of Devontae Booker. The rookie’s usage has progressively gone up as the weeks have gone by, and he totaled just three less yards than Anderson on four less carries. Booker seems to be gaining ground on Anderson, who I think will see a big hit to his production as the season progresses. Anderson’s numbers are deceiving, and his current fantasy production will prove to be fraudulent once Booker takes over his job.

Home/Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football: Who’s Real, Who’s Fake?

By Pj Candido | Oct 13, 2016