2016-17 NBA Preview: Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are still lacking that essential superstar that could propel them to the top of the Eastern Conference like they had in Dwight Howard. But they’re trying to do everything else correctly. While it’s likely they miss the playoffs, there’s a consolation prize: they could be the best team in Florida. But with the money they spent in the offseason, they’re aiming for loftier goals.

“I’m tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.” – Shaquille O’Neal

2015-16 in review

The Orlando Magic were one of the most improved teams in the league, climbing to 35 wins with an improved offense. It was their best post-Dwight Howard season. Defensively, they were near average — they were better at forcing turnovers and rebounding than guarding shots, which should be expected for a young team with a few athletes. It was a promising season, but it wasn’t good enough. Scott Skiles unexpectedly stepped down as head coach, and they failed to make the playoffs.

Rotation players in: Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, Jeff Green, DJ Augustin.

Rotation players out: Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Jason Smith.

The Orlando Magic reinvented their team over the summer, as it appears they’re committed to being a defensive squad. They’ve added a mountain of shotblocking in Ibaka and Biyombo. They mesh well too, as Ibaka’s shooting will help alleviate Biyombo’s issues on offense while Biyombo’s rebounding will mitigate Ibaka’s apparent weakness there. That’s why I think they wanted Jeff Green: they saw him as a veteran defender who can be called upon when the young kids are being unreliable. D.J. Augustin will help with backup point guard duties, which will be important with Elfrid Payton’s shooting problems. However, for the defensive upgrades, they let Oladipo and Tobias Harris go. The Tobias decision was odd because they spent money anyway on another combo forward in Jeff Green.

2016-17 projected

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The 2017 season is take two for the Magic: they’re bringing in a new defensive coach, again, and they’re hoping to break through the ceiling and make the playoffs. The desperation is high enough that they sold one of their young players for a veteran defender. Oladipo actually outrated Ibaka according to a few metrics last season, and obviously he’s younger too, but Ibaka’s a great fit and he’s still a plus defender. With his ability to hit outside shots, he can fit comfortably next to any non-shooter Orlando uses, from Biyombo to Aaron Gordon. What’s confusing, then, are the other moves they made in concert.

There’s a forward logjam now in Orlando. Aaron Gordon is a fixture on the team, yet the team traded an asset for someone who plays his position. He’s apparently fine with that, as they’ll play him at small forward; it’s not ideal but it’s workable. Ibaka is essentially a 3-and-D power forward, allowing the Magic to have an open slot for a non-shooter — it’s easier to deal with him. Gordon’s quick enough to guard the perimeter too, and he’ll still play a lot of power forward when possible. What’s odd is that the team added Jeff Green, who’s almost like a worst case scenario of Aaron Gordon since he’s an ineffective defender and shooter without ideal size for the frontcourt. It’s strange they want a duplicate of Aaron’s combo/tweener game, especially because they had a younger version in Tobias Harris. Perhaps someone has some outsized affection for Green and his inconsistency, but I also have a fear Green would displace some of Gordon’s minutes. That hopefully will not be the case.

The other curiosity is why Orlando traded for a veteran right now during this phase of the rebuilding project. Someone in the front office was probably antsy about being competitive, but it seems strangely overeager to pull the trigger on a deal like that when they already knew about the coaching change and showed a lot of promising signs last season. Or sometimes people get fixated on a certain type of player or attribute. Maybe they thought Serge Ibaka was some rare, critical puzzle piece and they were afraid to give up an opportunity.

Regardless, Frank Vogel has a few weapons at his disposal on defense now. A lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo is formidable. Nikola Vucevic, in fact, could be vulnerable — the team wasn’t afraid to trade Victor Oladipo. It’s not a seller’s market for centers right now, but the Magic may want other duties covered by their center. The guard slots aren’t set in concrete either. Payton is such a poor shooter that I’m concerned he won’t stick with a team as a starter long-term. Remember, this is an NBA landscape where Ricky Rubio has a red flag — and he’s a better shooter. Mario Hezonja is still a question mark. Some people are adamant about his future value, but he had a rough season.

With all that said, projection systems don’t see much of a change for the Magic. Ibaka and Biyombo, for all their shot-blocking, are seen as closer to average than anything else. They’re a young group of guys, so age alone will make them a bit better. Frank Vogel could push them further too, but Scott Skiles was no slouch either. There is a lot of room for growth, and the team is finally in a place to completely excise themselves from the Dwight Howard debacle and how long it set them back.

Quick graph

Elfrid Payton is en vogue right now, but his shooting is … greatly concerning. Not only is he a poor outside shooter, but he struggles even at the free throw line. He’s a lot like Rajon Rondo, which may have distracted people from something: it’s exceedingly rare for a guard to be such a poor free throw shooter. Payton is actually the third worst guard by FT% in NBA history. You have to go back to the 50’s to find a player with a lower percentage. Looking at the list below, few modern players are included, and most players are not notable. Payton’s future in the league is tied to his shooting problems. It’s not fair, but teams can completely change their defenses to exploit his weakness and it could jeopardize his future roles.

Table: worst FT-shooting guards, min. 400 FTA

2017-preview-orl-ft /

Summary

The Orlando Magic are remaking themselves into a defensive squad, and so far most of the pieces are there. But they’re still counting on a lot of development from their young guys, and the offensive end of the court could look ugly at times. The trio of Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and Bismack Biyombo will have some ugly misses together. The team has a long way to go before they’re a legitimate contender, but most of the basic components are there — now all they need is a star.

Win predictions:

Mine: 38.0. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching.

Andrew Johnson’s: 36. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 31 A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 38. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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