2016-17 NBA Preview: Washington Wizards

Washington looks to be stuck with 40-something wins for the time being, which is fitting for the franchise: they won a title with a record low 44 wins in 1978. It’s better than being stuck in 20-win territory, but what more do they need? What chances do they have of improving this season?

“Between the wish and the thing the world lies waiting.” – Cormac McCarthy

2015-16 in review

The Randy Wittman DC train rode one last time. It was again another season where Washington was near average, their defense was good, their offense was disappointing, and John Wall was electric. This time, unfortunately, they missed the playoffs. They even tried a midseason trade to change their course, brought in Markieff Morris as a stretch 4, and they tried to embrace the three-pointer. On a positive note, they did increase their pace by a significant margin; it just didn’t change anything.

Rotation players in: Ian Mahinmi, Tomas Satoransky, Trey Burke.

Rotation players out: Jared Dudley, Nene, Garrett Temple, Ramon Sessions.

The Wizards, having parted ways with Nene, picked up Mahinmi as a backup center and possible successor to Marcin Gortat. Overall, it’s not a bad change, though most advanced metrics love Nene — when he’s healthy. For backup point guard, the Wizards are bringing in 2012 draft pick Tomas Satoransky. He’s a big point guard who projects well with plenty of experience at the highest levels of European basketball. He should be able to beat Trey Burke for the backup position, but that’s not saying much — and backup is where the team needs a lot of help. They won’t miss Temple or Ramon Sessions. They will, however, miss Jared Dudley, who played all but one game and shot extremely well.

2016-17 Projected

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If you spend years stuck in mediocrity, you gotta blame someone, and in this case it’s the coach. Scott Brooks will come in as the new coach for the Wizards, and although he’s heavily criticized for his simplicity, Randy Wittman wasn’t highly respected. At the very least, there are some low-hanging fruits, like Bradley Beal’s love of missing long two-pointers, and there are a few young guys Brooks could nurture.

There’s little evidence to suggest the Wizards will be taking a leap. John Wall is no longer a pup and won’t likely improve his jump shot dramatically. They’ve had no game-changing moves, and they’ll miss two of their veterans from last season, Jared Dudley and Nene, who were definitely valuable. One would have to assume a young player takes a huge leap forward or Brooks is an actual coaching wizard. Any discussion about Brooks’ coaching value is combative, and there are few ways to objectively measure coaching.

One such attempt I found was basically RAPM for coaches. Scott Brooks was the most valuable coach there (from 2001 to 2014.) However, he started coaching right when Oklahoma City’s players made tremendous strides. A lot of that credit should go to the training staff or just randomness. Since it was a 14-year model where every player is one variable, there was a large disconnect for a few Thunder players before and after 2009. Brooks was used mathematically to fill in that gap and explain some of the error. Thus, I don’t think Brooks is the greatest coach in that time-frame or even a great coach at all. But he’s a decent upgrade and maybe he can jump-start Bradley Beal’s career.

In fact, and this is important for projections, Bradley Beal’s numbers are as incongruous to his mainstream perception as anyone else’s. Due to where he was drafted and how nice his outside shot is, it’s like people already assume he’s a fringe all-star level player, as if it’s such an inevitability we should just believe it now to make things simpler. But there’s really no proof he’s an above average player. Beal takes a lot of shots, but too many are inefficient two-pointers — he has low percentages there — and he doesn’t provide much of anything else, besides a little ball-handling. Washington’s primary issue is that they haven’t found a star scorer to pair with John Wall and alleviate some of his duties. This will anger a few fans from the mere implication, but even Otto Porter’s had higher ratings on several all-in-one metrics, like ESPN’s RPM.

There are no additions to the roster that will significantly alter the Wizards either. Markieff Morris was already there last season, and they were roughly 0.500 in games he played. And since his twin isn’t going to be there, I wouldn’t bet on him replicating his 2014 season. Unless someone like Tomas Satoransky or Otto Porter Jr. makes a leap, things will be very much the same.

Quick statistic

John Wall is a superb passer, and it’s becoming harder for people to dismiss the evidence. One of his strengths is a lightning quick cross-court pass, which he uses to setup three-pointers. He’s regularly among the leaders in assisting three-point field goals. As seen in the table below, he led 2016, for instance, in both total and per minute three-point assists. Many high assist point guards, like Rajon Rondo, will rack up the assists but they’ll have lower quality ones. The Wizards haven’t even totally emphasized the outside shot for an entire season yet — imagine his numbers in a more progressive system.

Table: assists to three-pointers leaderboard, 2016

2017-preview-was-3ast /

Summary

Washington is pushing for a playoff spot, and they’re hoping a new coach will be the catalyst. They have John Wall, now a perennial all-star, but the offense has been disappointing for a long time. They need a major overhaul on that end of the court where they haven’t been above average since 2008. Currently, I have them fifth in the Eastern Conference, but they’re several wins below the top three seeds. The best case scenario is drawing someone like Detroit in the first round and beating them only to be leveled by the Cavaliers in the next round. That’s not what Washington’s dreams are made of, but it’s their likely future.

Win predictions:

Mine: 43.7. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching.

Andrew Johnson’s: 41. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 43. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 40. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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