2016-17 NBA Preview: Indiana Pacers

Not too long ago, the Indiana Pacers were conference rivals with the semi-revolutionary Miami Heat, who fought with speed and three-pointers and passing. The Pacers had more traditional lineups and used size, rebounding, and post-ups to flatten the Heat. The team collapsed, and in their defeat the front office decided to embrace the movement that destroyed them. They’ve remade the roster into a fast-break, small-ball crew with one traditional big man in the middle, and they have one holdover from the previous era. But adopting a style alone won’t save them.

“The grass is always greener on the other side.” – Monta Ellis, probably

2015-16 in review

The 2016 season for the Pacers was a small success. They made the playoffs, a year after missing them, but they were eliminated in the first round. Paul George returned to form after a broken leg, but he was the lone star on the roster. They had transformed their roster in the previous offseason with talk consisting of making Paul George into a power forward and taking more three-pointers. But their offense was still below average and the Frank Vogel defense was still their bread-and-butter. Overall, it was a mixed season and management decided to make a few changes.

Rotation players in: Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson.

Rotation players out: George Hill, Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill.

The Pacers, wanting to remake their team, decided to flip George Hill for Jeff Teague — they want someone who fits into an uptempo style and someone who can create shots. Thaddeus Young has bounced around the league lately, but he’s often used as a small ball power forward who can help push the pace (you can see a theme here.) Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill left, as the organization sees a lot of potential in Myles Turner and didn’t want to pay Mahinmi in from of him. They’ll miss his defense, however; recall that Indiana actually played better defense sometimes with him on the court instead of Roy Hibbert, the old master of rim protection. And oddly, they signed Al Jefferson, who doesn’t really fit into their new philosophy but was in the bargain bin.

2016-17 projected

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There’s an uncomfortable truth most teams don’t want to confront. Most teams, without drastic changes or wildly good luck, don’t have the kind of talent to compete for a title. Since there’s such a heavy push for championships by the fans, the media, and others, any other route is seen as failure. So when a team flops in mediocrity for a few years, they’ll make superficial changes that can’t possibly lead to a title but it at least looks like they’re doing something.

I see the Jeff Teague deal in this way. He’s not the kind of player who’s going to bring them a title. Many analysts don’t even think he’s an upgrade over George Hill, especially in terms of fit. He and Monta Ellis share a few similarities in how they operate, and neither can reliably guard opposing shooting guards. He’s already 28 years-old, and I think he peaked in 2015. The insistence on calling Paul George a power forward is strange too. He’s clearly their best player and should be put in a position that maximizes his talents, and I think he’s best as a small forward who can smother smaller guys on defense and shoot over them on offense.

One of the other new Pacers, though, will take that power forward role for Paul George: Thaddeus Young. He’s played for some under-the-radar teams, so I imagine most people are still unsure of his talents. But he’s a decent forward who can push the pace and beat other players off the dribble. He’s not a good outside shooter or a rim protector — he has the good defensive qualities of a perimeter player instead.

At center, Myles Turners got the keys to the car, and he is some solid hope for the future. Most notably, he has potential to hit NBA three-pointers and with his superb shot-blocking skills he’d have a unique and coveted combination of skills. Turner had a usage rate around 20 percent, and it’s rare for rookie centers to shoot that often — even veteran centers usually shoot less. I don’t expect him to turn into a star overnight, but he’s someone to track. His backup is Al Jefferson. I’ve seen a lot of people mention how it’s smart to have an offensive center on the bench because he can face other backups, but lineups are a lot more mixed than people realize and defense, Jefferson’s weakness, is always important.

Otherwise, the only other major change is the coach Nate McMillan. I see this change as a downgrade since Frank Vogel was a good architect of an NBA defense, even when he didn’t have a lot of material to build with. There’s always a chance there’s a surprise, but I’m going for what’s likely.

Quick graph

One of the most common descriptions of a player is how he’s a “two-way” player — that is, he’s a plus on offense and defense. Often times it’s untrue, but it’s a valid descriptor for Paul George. For instance, using multi-year RPM, you can tweak the overall rating using the geometric mean. This adjusts a pair of numbers so a more evenly balanced set is favored, and a more lopsided pair is penalized. Paul George moves into the top ten if you do this, and as you can see below he has the lowest total RPM but sneaks in because he’s well above average on offense and defense. Note that Stephen Curry, who let the world on fire, fell to tenth because his defense was so much weaker than his offense.

Table: Two-way impact using RPM

2017-preview-ind-two-way /

Summary

The Indiana Pacers rearranged a few items on the team but it’s not clear there’s going to be a benefit. George Hill was the better defender and the better fit than Jeff Teague. They fired a good coach and brought in someone who will likely not be any better. They still have Paul George, one of the best players in the game, but a change in philosophy and a call to push the pace won’t mask the lack of talent on the rest of the roster. Indiana will be another Eastern Conference team stuck in the middle, fighting for one of the lower seeds in the playoffs, and flirting with a 0.500 record.

Win predictions:

Mine: 38.6. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching.

Andrew Johnson’s: 43. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 39. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 38. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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