2016-17 NBA Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

As my hometown team, I have some hesitation in being critical of the Portland Trail Blazers, but honesty is ultimately more responsible and diligent. I know the team’s history and all the highs and the periods of turmoil, so when I see the team fail in some capacity, I think of all the wasted opportunities before, and how much has been squandered. I’m optimistic about the team in general, but I also want Portland to make the best possible choices for their future.

“This Portland team is nothing more than a band of pranksters.” – Bill Walton

2015-16 in review

When Portland lost four of its five starters, most people wrote off the team, relegating them to the lottery scrapheap. But they performed admirably well, winning 44 games and making it to the second round thanks to some ill-timed bouts of injuries from the Clippers. It was no surprise to Nylon Calculus though — here’s a projection that was right on the money, as the stats thought they had a good stash of decent role players with Damian Lillard as the driving force on offense. With CJ McCollum’s breakout year, Portland had its future.

Rotation players in: Evan Turner, Festus Ezeli

Rotation players out: Gerald Henderson

Portland made few changes, and with their success last season that’s understandable; they spent a lot in resources just bringing everyone back. Gerald Henderson was a useful 3-and-D wing who had his best shooting season in his career, but he still relied on too many two-point jump shots; his efficiency is typically below average. Evan Turner is a ball-handling wing player with a shaky long jump shot and good but not great defense. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective on offense, and even then he’s not too valuable — it’s an odd fit with Portland, especially their starting unit. Ezeli’s defense and rebounding could be really useful for the team, if he’s healthy, but the frontcourt has gotten pretty crowded.

2016-17 projected

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Since Portland is returning most of its players and few are at the age where development or decline are major issues, they should perform at pretty much the same level except for their one major change: Evan Turner. He has some supporters, and obviously the Portland front office has a few since they gave him $70 million over four years, but he’s been consistently seen as a net negative in the advanced stat community for years. This guy was a textbook example of how a player can be overrated by conventional stats. In Philadelphia back in 2014, he was playing 35 minutes per game on a fast-paced team without any other scorers. Thus, he had the green light and lots of time to rack up stats: 17 PPG, 6 RPG, and 3.7 APG. He was an inefficient scorer, however, and was a poor defender at the time, racking up a few pretty stats simply by being on the court a lot and having the ball in his hands.

Indiana, who traded for Evan Turner shortly after the end of the all-star break, was enjoying an excellent season in the first half, outscoring teams by eight points per game. After the All-Star break, they were getting outscored by two points per game. I would not blame Turner entirely for this discrepancy, but I would suggest he’s a partial culprit. Consequently, his perceived value plummeted, and Boston signed him too a $6.7 million, two-year contract. In that environment with Brad Stevens, he flourished and enjoyed a starting role on a successful, surprising team. This has led to some reappraisals of his worth, but I don’t think much has changed. His defense has gotten better, but it’s not special and it doesn’t cancel out the negative effects of his offense.

Turner has a career true shooting percentage of 48.9, his role is as a scorer and facilitator, and he’s a pretty poor off-ball player — this is why plus-minus metrics are wary of him. Even Boston played better without him, and he often started. Even if one constructs an argument for his value based on his playmaking and defense, I could point to the poor fit: Portland already has CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard; the ball will be better in their hands; and Evan Turner is a near liability on offense without the ball. His defense is not worth that much, and you can find cheaper defenders on the market, especially if they’re non-shooters. Ironically, Portland’s projection is not damaged too heavily by his signing because Gerald Henderson’s RPM and BPM are just as bad — and most projection systems now depend on those metrics.

Elsewhere on the roster, Portland has a players who made significant strides last season, and it’s unclear how much of it is sustainable. Al-Farouq Aminu’s three-point percentage, for example, is well above his historic norms, and this could become a concern if he’s unable to nail outside shots while sharing the court with Evan Turner. Mason Plumlee unexpectedly showcased great passing skills for a center, but that’s a change that usually sticks. CJ McCollum made a huge leap forward, but his first two seasons were ruined by injuries so it’s unclear what his baseline actually is.

Even so, the Blazers are young enough to offset the regression, so it’s not a huge concern. They also have enough depth to overcome injuries. Lillard is the only player they could truly not afford to lose, but last season was the first year he missed any games. They could also get more production from their frontcourt simply by eliminating Noah Vonleh and with a better season from Meyers Leonard.

Quick statistic

If Stephen Curry didn’t exist, we’d be more appreciative of Damian Lillard’s talents. Few players can shoot as well and as often off the dribble as Lillard, while still being a playmaker. But Curry is so much better that we don’t assign Lillard’s gifts as notable. For example, taking the geometric mean of assists per minute and three-pointers per minute, you get a measure of a player’s propensity to “shoot or dish.” The geometric mean is being used so you don’t see one-dimensional players dominate the list by excelling in just one category. Lillard was second in the league last season by this measure, as he’s one of the most prolific shooters in the NBA. But Curry, of course, outclassed him; the difference between first and second place was about the same as the difference between second and 28th. But let’s not forget how valuable Lillard’s offense is while being awed by Steph.

2017-preview-por /

Summary

The Blazers will be the same team except with Evan Turner as a starter. Based on all the objective information we have on Turner over the years, and the fit issues, this is not a good idea. The fit could be so poor, in fact, that most projection systems could be flummoxed, or perhaps the team will wise up and play him in limited minutes off the bench, acting as the de facto backup point guard. Regardless, the team will probably the same as the one last year as a slightly above 0.500 team, as the guy he’s replacing, Gerald Henderson, did not rate well either. The offense will be good because of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, but the defense will be poor because of, well, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Win predictions:

Mine: 44.6. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching and usage.

Andrew Johnson’s: 44. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 42. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 46. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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