2016-17 NBA Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

The landscape of the Western Conference has shifted over the past summer, with retirements, up-and-comers, and major free agent decisions. The Clippers remain the same. They have been a 50-plus win team for four years in a row now — and in 2012 their 40 wins would translate to 50 in an 82 game season. We know what to expect at this point, and unfortunately one of those things is a heart-wrenching injury or playoff loss. With the right amount of luck and some good timing, a title would not be out of the question by this point or at least a Finals appearance. But it has not happened, and the chances of such an event are decreasing every day.

“Life’s single lesson: that there is more accident to it than a man can ever admit to in a lifetime and stay sane.” – Thomas Pynchon

2015-16 in review

The Clippers had a fairly typical season except for Blake Griffin’s journey — he played half the season and then got injured again in the playoffs. The team recovered nicely though, as Chris Paul took on more of the scoring burden and DeAndre Jordan’s stats expanded. The team tried more small ball, which opened the court, but they were an awful rebounding team. They snagged the fourth seed, and for a moment in the playoffs it appeared they amassed a great fortune when their likely second round opponent, Golden State, lost their star with an injury, but then the Clippers lost both Paul and Griffin, and they never made it past the first round.

Rotation players in: Brandon Bass, Mo Speights, Raymond Felton.

Rotation players out: Pablo Prigioni, Cole Aldrich, Jeff Green.

GM Doc Rivers had a decent off-season, at least for a Clippers team. Brandon Bass is a solid power forward with a steady midrange jumper and adept defense against all forwards. He’s just not big enough for center, and they’ll miss Aldrich in that respect. Mo Speights is similar player to Bass though, as a power forward sized midrange specialist, so he’s a bit redundant. Felton will replace Prigioni as the backup PG. Jeff Green provided the full Jeff Green experience for coach Doc Rivers, who complained to GM Doc Rivers about it enough that Green was allowed to walk in free agency.

2016-17 projected

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Numbers-based projections are consistently under the Vegas expected win total for the Clippers, and it’s not easy to see why at first. Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan are arguably the best quartet outside of Golden State, but age is a negative factor for two of them and neutral for the others. They also have a couple of senior bench players in Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce, and a few in their early 30’s. Their only young, potential up-and-coming player is Austin Rivers, and for diehard NBA fans that sentence is scary. Maybe one of their rookies becomes an NBA-caliber player, but guys taken that late in the draft, like 25th pick Brice Johnson, rarely develop like that.

Age alone isn’t enough to push the Clippers down as much as some projections see, so there’s a missing component here few are considering: the Clippers lost Cole Aldrich, and two of the most popular metrics for prediction, RPM and BPM, adored him. By VORP, which measures total production from BPM, he was the fourth most productive player, even though he played just 800 minutes. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 3.1 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. He alone doesn’t dramatically change LA’s projection, but it’s another effect that must be accounted.

The real problem with the Clippers is that they still don’t have a reliable small forward. There’s Mbah a Moute, who’s a great defender but has bounced around the league for a reason: he’s one of the worst players on offense on the wings. Paul Pierce would have been a good option a few years ago; he should be played at the 4, if at all. Alan Anderson is an inaccurate three-point shooter with injury and aging concerns. Wesley Johnson is probably the best option. He’s a good enough shooter in the Matt Barnes mold to make just enough shots so he’s not a complete liability on offense, and due to his size he’s an effective small forward defender.

The sum total of the Clippers outside their top four is dispiriting. There’s little firepower and production, and everyone’s getting old. The Clippers would be helped enormously by having just two good role players. No contender should rely on a backup guard rotation of Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, and Jamal Crawford, especially when Chris Paul should get more rest. The result is a pessimistic wins prediction; there’s just not enough outside of the core group.

Quick statistic

Last season, DeAndre Jordan got intentional fouls like Barry Bonds got intentional walks. It distorted the statistical landscape — he had 1.2 free throws for every field goal, which is an unofficial record. It defined much of their team, and it made some stretches of their games unbearable to watch. Looking at every season since 1955, Jordan’s season was definitely an outlier when it came to his ratio of free throws to field goals. You can also see WIlt’s outlier season and one from Rick Barry, who won a title that season without the aid of many free throws. The ABA seasons are included here too; you can see one from Stew Johnson, a player known for his outside shooting even though he played in the frontcourt.

2017-preview-lac-fta /

Summary

The Clippers have changed very little. They still have a game of musical chairs at small forward, and the roster is getting old and creaky. Win projections are down on the Clippers for those reasons. They have no above average bench players, and perhaps only Brandon Bass can be considered average there, if Wesley Johnson starts. Given how much time Chris Paul, JJ Redick, and Blake Griffin typically miss, this is a major concern. The Clippers should be capitalizing on the shorter list of great teams in the west right now, but it appears they have bad timing once again.

Win predictions:

Mine: 48.5. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching and usage.

Andrew Johnson’s: 53. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 52. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 50. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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