2016-17 NBA Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are a storied franchise with an impressive bank of history. Not too long ago, people commented on how the Lakers hadn’t had two years in a row without the playoffs because of their innate ability to attract free agents and otherwise bring in talent — you have to go back to the mid-70’s for a two-year stretch with no playoffs. They’ve never before missed the playoffs three times in a row. But everything changes with time, and the future is more than a string of prior events.

“No man is rich enough to buy back his past.” – Oscar Wilde

2015-16 in review

The Lakers had a woeful season. They were 29th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive. The Kobe Bryant farewell tour was awkward at times, and it stifled the development of some of their players, namely rookie D’Angelo Russell. By the end of the season, they no longer had Kobe, the one connection they had left to a better era. They finished with a franchise low 17 wins.

Rotation players in: Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov, Brandon Ingram, Jose Calderon, Yi Jianlian.

Rotation players out: Kobe Bryant, Brandon Bass.

The Lakers will miss Kobe Bryant, but not for what he produced on the court last season. His shots will be happily distributed to the rest of the young guys. Bass left too, but he went for greener pastures on the other side of the arena by signing with the Clippers. The Lakers, then, drafted Brandon Ingram, who didn’t rate well by his college stats but has all the other measurables you’d want in a prospect.

Oddly, the Lakers targeted Luol Deng and Mozgov in free agency. I could understand wanting some veteran presence on the team, and in that case I’d be fine with Deng, but Mozgov has only had three full seasons in the league and a four-year, $64 million contract for a 30 year-old center with knee problems is unwise, especially for a rebuilding team that needs clean books for free agency claims in the future. Jose Calderon was added so that Marcelo Huertas had someone to compete with in a foot race. Yi is a more interesting move for a team in LA’s position, but he may not have changed too much after his initial run with the league. Brandon Ingram was their most important move, and with his combination of size, length, and shooting ability he’s drawn comparisons to Kevin Durant, although Durant’s college stats were a lot more impressive.

2016-17 projected

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No one should need much convincing that the Lakers will be bad, but it’s the degree of badness that takes a little thought. First of all, the Lakers are obviously a young team, and a lot improvement will come internally from natural development and, hopefully, better schemes. Coach Byron Scott was one of the few remaining “old-school” zealots left, while Luke Walton had a stint for one of the more progressive teams in the league. He’s also going from a team who he coached to a 39-4 record to one coming off a season with the second-worst record.

The team should be a lot better too because Luol Deng read something incorrectly and decided to join the LA Lakers and not the LA Clippers, which would have made a lot more sense for both parties. Unless he faces a sudden decline, he should give them some productive minutes. Timofey Mozgov has looked healthier in preseason, and he should provide more for them than Roy Hibbert did. But it’s a distressing sign for his career he’s playing for the Lakers, as they’ve become some kind of basketball Valhalla for centers.

The future, however, is bright now that they’ve embraced the rebuild. D’Angelo Russell does appear to have the kind of offensive repertoire a guard would need, and he and Jordan Clarkson could form a pretty formidable scoring backcourt. Larry Nance Jr. was a pleasant surprise, and he should at least excite the crowd any time he’s on the court. I’m not a fan of Julius Randle, however, but he’s only had one full season in the NBA. Brandon Ingram was a consensus number two pick, and he certainly has the tools to succeed in the league.

There’s a common thread of discussion circling Brandon Ingram, unfortunately, and it’s about his weight. When people hear about him being 190 lbs and 6-9 they immediately think he’ll bust in two like a twig upon playing in the league, but that’s not how bodies work. People equate the size of the individual with structural integrity, like we’re tree trunks, but our bones provide the structural support and he doesn’t need a lot of extra muscle and fat to play in the league. Adding on weight can actually decrease a person’s “structural integrity,” like adding superfluous weight onto a bridge. This is a skinny person’s league, and plenty of svelte athletes have had long careers. I’m ranting about this once again because it’s an important issue and too many young guys have irresponsibly put on too much weight too soon and have been taken down by serious injuries. And I’m not alone in this belief.

Quick statistic

I created the Morey Index as a way to highlight guys who have the unusual combination of drawing free throws and taking three-pointers. The patron saints are Danilo Gallinari, Chauncey Billups, and James Harden — Gallinari actually owned the “record” until the end of last season for his 2011 campaign for seasons with at least 1500 minutes. Then DeAndre Jordan had to go and screw it all up with his intentional fouls; he has the highest mark now.

Thus, with some tweaking, I’ve adjusted the Morey Index with a geometric mean to sort out the guys who just get fouled all the time and don’t take three’s; the top seasons are below. Lou Williams actually beat Gallinari’s record in both the unadjusted and adjusted Morey Index, and I’m sure few people noticed. Lou has always had high rates of free throws and three-pointers, but last season his free-throw rate dramatically increased, beating out the likes of several James Harden seasons and others. You can see his 2015 season near the end of the list.

2017-preview-lal-morey /

Summary

The Los Angeles Lakers will not be a good team, once again, and they may not be one for a while. Without a sudden boom in good fortune, we’re not going to see the same kind of Laker power we were all used to. They do have some young talent now, and with Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov, and the new coach Luke Walton they can trot out some decent lineups and play a bit better. But for now, they are lottery bound — which is good news for the 76ers, who get either their 2017 first round pick if it’s out of the top three or their unprotected 2018 first round pick. This all puts more pressure on the growth of D’Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram, and by the end of the season we’ll have a better idea of their true potential. That’s what the Lakers are playing for.

Win predictions:

Mine: 22.4. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching and usage.

Andrew Johnson’s: 22. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 22. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 21. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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