2016-17 NBA Preview: Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns have had a remarkable team history for a franchise without a championship. They had an era with Paul Westphal in the 70’s, which included a fFnals appearance, that transitioned to a Larry Nance led team in the 80’s where they were regularly making the playoffs. Then there was the period with Kevin Johnson, punctuated by Charles Barkley and the Finals in 1993. They lay dormant for a while, and then revolutionized the league with Steve Nash a decade ago. We’re waiting for a new epoch to begin for the Suns, and it’s unclear what shape the next playoff form of Phoenix will take.

“The miserable have no other medicine, but only hope.” – Shakespeare

2015-16 in review

After juggling around a few point guards, Phoenix committed to Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe. They also invested in some veteran talent, namely Tyson Chandler, and they were optimistic about some of their youngsters like Alex Len. Lamentably, Knight and Bledsoe played a combined 83 games, and the team was unable to synthesize a complete, competitive team. With major injuries to their point guards, they had to rely on players like Archie Goodwin and Devin Booker, a natural wing, for their point guard needs. Unsurprisingly, they were last in the league in turnover rate, and they finished the season with the fourth-worst record.

Rotation players in: Jared Dudley, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss.

Rotation players out: Mirza Teletovic, Jon Leuer, Ronnie Price.

Phoenix is bringing back Jared Dudley, a beloved role player who had an earlier stint with the team during the magical Steve Nash era; he and Leandro Barbosa can offer some wisdom from an ancient time. They haven’t lost too much; Ronnie Price was and end of the bench type who played more with the injuries while both Teletovic and Jon Leuer were spot-up big man specialists. And, naturally, Phoenix replaced them with two young three-point shooting big men prospects in Dragan and Chriss. Dragan Bender is one of the greatest NBA names ever, up there with God Shammgod and Haywoode Workman. And at 7-1 with perimeter skills, he’s the type of high-ceiling prospect rebuilding teams covet.

2016-17 projected

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The strength of Phoenix’s 2017 team will be predicated on the health of Eric Bledsoe and the growth rate of their young guys. The only player with the potential to jolt the team out of 20-win territory is Bledsoe, who’s an explosive player on offense and a plus defender at both guard positions at the other end of the court. Brandon Knight has never been shown to have that kind of value, and the other guys are a collection of veterans past their primes and young players without strong track records.

Brandon Knight was supposed to be their other building piece, but he was moved to the bench and advanced metrics hate him, particularly plus-minus models. He and Devin Booker were one of the most hated duos in the league by ESPN’s RPM. So if, or when, Bledsoe misses a few games, Phoenix gets a lot worse.

At the other positions, Phoenix is deeper and they have a curious stash of good veterans. I’m not sure why Tyson Chandler, Jared Dudley, and P.J. Tucker are on the team, but I’d love to see that trio shipped off to a borderline contender to give them depth. Both Dudley and Tucker are good 3-and-D forwards who can slide down to the power forward competently. Chandler’s pick-and-roll skills are still there, but he needs the right system. Overall, they’re the greatest source of production outside of Bledsoe, and they could keep the team from achieving the worst record in the league.

The Phoenix Suns are unlikely to rise above the cellar of the Western Conference, so they’re playing for the future of their two lottery picks. I saw a variety of projections for Dragan Bender, but he’s the youngest player in the draft and a 7-1 player who was skilled enough for some run at small forward over the summer. Marquese Chriss had some lukewarm college stats, but he’s a stretch-4 and started basketball at a late age; it’s possible he’s a late-bloomer. And hopefully, guys like Devin Booker and T.J. Warren will develop further. The Suns need another high-impact player.

Quick statistic

Eric Bledsoe has consistently been rated as one of the better defensive point guards for a while now among a variety of metrics. It’s because, despite his height, he nets a shocking number of blocks and rebounds, plus he still grabs a high rate of steals. Combining all three stats into a defensive metric, he has the highest composite score ever for a point guard for his 2013 season. His last season wasn’t too shabby either, with a score of 3.1, which was just behind Michael Carter-Williams and John Wall. You’ll note that from the below list, big point guards dominate — Nate McMillan was 6-5. Eric Bledsoe outplays his size, thanks to his wingspan.

2017-preview-phx /

Summary

The Phoenix Suns failed in realizing they had a rebuilding season ahead for them last season, but I think the fact has been accepted. The team will not be very good, but they have a valuable, when healthy, phenom athlete of a point guard in Eric Bledsoe and a few useful veterans. They should be proactive in the trade market, looking to improve their future; they don’t need every single veteran and Bledsoe’s injury history is pretty scary. The future of the team will be built from one of their present or future lottery talents, from Dragan Bender to the guys from the unknown future.

Win predictions:

Mine: 26.0. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching and usage.

Andrew Johnson’s: 24. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 30. A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 27. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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