Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday night kicks off the NBA regular season and for those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline/
Tuesday Main NBA preseason action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with three games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. We get the chance to see the defending champion Cavaliers raise their banner in Cleveland and the Warriors start their season with a new SF in the mix!
Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA: Top Point Guards
Stephen Curry ($9,300) Let’s start with the Warriors as we have only a three game slate so loading up Golden State may be chalky but necessary. The Warriors get a tough opening night assignment with the Spurs which may deflate ownership a bit, but I still expect they will be the stars that everyone looks to roster.
Curry to me is a lock and load play in all formats as we are able to roster the player that averaged the most FanDuel points per game (46.99) last season at a price under $10k. This is NOT going to be common so I am happy to take the hidden value here!
Last season against the Spurs, Curry averaged 28.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.8 steals per game which translates to 46 FanDuel Points per night(consistent with his average). At this price point, his AVERAGE performance gets you 5x value so the floor is set extremely high and there is no PG on this slate worth playing the fade for! Curry will be in every single lineup I submit Tuesday and I will look to differentiate elsewhere!
Kyrie Irving ($7,100) The second point guard position is a spot I believe you can pivot across multiple entries however my favorite of the group is Irving at a very reasonable price point. Consider that you are paying only 15% more for Irving than Derrick Rose who has not even been practicing with the team the last two weeks and this feels like an easy value play!
The Knicks last year were one of the more favorable teams to target opposing PG’s against and with the lack of practice time Rose has had leading up to the opener, I would expect Irving to be aggressive in this game on a night where the Cavs unleash their championship banner.
At this price point, Irving would need 42.6 points to hit value and if you look back at the NBA Finals, this is something he did in 3 of the 7 games. If Irving were priced over $8k I would likely look elsewhere but the price point is easy to utilize in all formats and does not prohibit you from loading up elsewhere!
FanDuel NBA: Top SG plays
Klay Thompson ($6,500) Leading up to the season, one of the biggest questions will be how the arrival of Kevin Durant will affect Klay Thompson? Obviously there is an expectation that the usage and offensive involvement will dip with KD on board but you could also argue that Durant’s presence will open up more wide open shot attempts for Klay.
Similar to my take on Kyrie Irving, Thompson’s price point is such that it takes only a reasonable performance to hit target value (39 FD points) and there is no SG on the slate with the upside that Klay has on a nightly basis.
If you are looking to pivot, Rodney Hood ($5,400) makes for an interesting choice as without Gordon Hayward in the lineup, Hood will be asked to shoulder the scoring load. Take into account as well the Utah Jazz may be without Derrick Favors and this would be a high usage spot to roll out Hood!
J.R. Smith ($4,500) The shirtless one is back! After a long exhibition layoff due to a contract dispute, Smith has resigned with the Cavs and will slot back into his starting SG role with 30+ minutes on a nightly basis.
The usage is the biggest knock on J.R. as on a team full of stars, he will not likely be the recipient of a large amount of shot attempts but on a short slate we are looking for opportunity and with starter’s minutes and a price point that only requires 27 points to hit value, I am fine targeting Smith in this spot. Add in the narrative that he gets to face a Knicks team that traded him for pennies on the dollar and we could be looking at a revenge GPP play!
FanDuel NBA: Top SF plays
Small Forward is loaded on this slate as we get to choose from Carmelo Anthony, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James and Kevin Durant for just two spots!
To me, LeBron James ($9,600) is the clear top choice here as he does not have to face Kawhi Leonard (as Durant does) and is going to be fired up for opening night in TitleTown USA (Believeland).
LeBron is always one to target when the lights are brightest and he has feasted against the Knicks, putting up over 1.3 fantasy points per minute against them last season. Coming off an NBA finals where The King averaged over 61 FD points per game, this is a dangerous spot to fade LeBron and a city where everything is coming up roses lately!
The second SF spot comes down to two players, Kevin Durant ($9,300) & Kawhi Leonard ($7,900) and I plan to utilize them both especially in spots where I want to avoid a full on Warriors stack!
From a GPP perspective, I am going to side with the upside of Durant as similar to Curry, you are able to target one of the best DFS players on the planet for under $10k which is a rare occurrence. I firmly believe in playing the narrative in daily fantasy sports and with all the criticism that Durant took on this off-season, I expect he will look to make a statement on opening night and I want to have exposure to an angry KD!
FanDuel NBA: Top PF’s and Center
Rudy Gobert ($6,200) Center is probably the most cut and dry position for me as I intend to have heavy (ie. 100%) exposure to Rudy Gobert at a bargain price point. With a match-up against Portland, Gobert should be able to feast as the Blazers simply do not have the interior presence to stop Gobert from dominating the interior.
Last season the Blazers gave up 48.3 FD points per game to opposing centers which was the fifth highest in the entire NBA. At this price point, Gobert would only need 37 points to exceed value and considering he comes off a pre-season where he had double-doubles in 3 of his 5 games, he makes for an easy target with immense upside.
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Trey Lyles ($4,000) Power Forward is the spot tonight where I will look to find some value and the Utah/Portland match-up has some intriguing options to give you roster flexibility specifically at SF.
With Derrick Favors still questionable to play on Tuesday, Lyles could be in line for a significant bump in minutes. Lyles has performed well this pre-season, averaging 10 points and 6.5 rebounds in only 20 minutes per action. Those stats alone would deliver 18 FanDuel points and Lyles only needs 24 to hit 6x value. So even with just a slight increase in minutes on Tuesday, lyles would be in a spot to crush his value at only $4k.
***UPDATE: Favors has been ruled OUT. Lyles makes for a great play(albeit a chalky one) but do not overlook Boris Diaw ($3,500) who is confirmed as starting over Lyles in order to keep Trey with the second unit. This alignment was used at the tail end of the preseason and at minimum price, Diaw only needs 21 FanDuel points to hit value! I love the idea of a double punt at PF with Lyles/Diaw as part of a stars and scrubs GPP approach!
Meyers Leonard ($3,500) At the absolute bare minimum price point, I love utilizing Meyers Leonard in this spot as he is guaranteed minutes as part of the Blazers front court and I expect his size will be needed to counter balance Rudy Gobert and the Jazz interior!
At this price point, Leonard would only need 21 FD points and there is risk in this selection but with so many stars on the slate this seems to be the perfect night for a Stars/Scrubs approach.
Next: Who is the top player in Fantasy Basketball?
Best of luck on Opening Night for the NBA – Welcome Back Basketball! Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook for all the late-breaking news and updates!