FanDuel NBA: Picks and Pivots October 27
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Looking back at Opening Night, the winner of the $1M GPP on FanDuel scored 373.5 points which is right in line with the projections we noted above.
On Wednesday Night we saw the winning lineups exceed 400 points on the backs of Anthony Davis and his monster 95 point FanDuel outing! Basically if you rostered AD you won, if you didn’t, you are ready for a new day!
Thursday’s Main NBA preseason action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with only four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Isaiah Thomas ($8,000) Even with a short four game slate, we have a few marquee point guard options to choose from including a match-up between Chris Paul and Damian Lillard. The top point guard in my mind however resides in Boston as Thomas gets one of the most favorable match-ups against Rajon Rondo and the Chicago Bulls.
Of all the games on this slate, the Celtics-Bulls has the highest team total at 210 so this will be a great spot to ensure you have exposure. Last season the Bulls gave up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards with Derrick Rose at the helm. The new Chicago PG, Rajon Rondo and his team from last season, the Sacramento Kings gave up the 5th most points to PG’s.
Thomas has the best pure match-up of any of the elite PG’s and considering he is priced $1k-$1.5K lower than John Wall, Chris Paul and Damian Lillard, he allows you much great roster flexibility with the same upside!
Dennis Schroder ($6,500) During the off-season, the Hawks acquired Schroder to be their point guard and signed him to a 4 year 70 million dollar contract extension on Wednesday. The biggest appeal with Schroder is that he will see 30+ minutes as the clear leader of the Hawks back court and will be one of the offensive leaders for this Atlanta squad.
The Hawks get a match-up with the Washington Wizards who gave up 41.6 FanDuel points per game to opposing PG’s last season which was bottom 10 in the league so this is a spot for us to exploit on Thursday. The combination of match-up and guaranteed minutes/usage at this price point make Schroder one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Allen Crabbe ($4,300) Looking over the initial roster construction on this slate, shooting guard stands out as the best spot to look for value to free up salary for other spots and I intend to mix and match various punt option when finalizing my rosters.
Crabbe had a tremendous opening night off the bench for Portland, racking up 18 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds over 29 minutes. As a result of the production, Crabbe saw extended minutes which allowed him to total 24.1 FanDuel points which would be good for 5.6x value at this price point.
J.J. Redick ($4,600) When looking at bargain options, one of the key things we look for are guaranteed minutes and as the starting 2 guard for the Clippers, we can expect a steady 27-32 minutes for Redick. In his career against Portland, Redick has averaged 27 minutes a game and put up 14.9 points per contest.
Redick is a steady cash game option that relies on his scoring to drive his fantasy output but if you are looking for a GPP pivot, paying up to Jamal Crawford ($4,800) may pay larger dividends. The reigning sixth man of the year will play similar minutes to Redick but with a higher scoring output, including averaging 16.5 points per game against Portland last year, he provides a higher upside scoring option for just $200 more in salary.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard ($8,200) Coming off a monster opening performance against the Warriors where Leonard racked up 35 points, 5 rebounds, 5 steals and 3 assists, we get the opportunity to lock him back in on Thursday night. Leonard put up 53 points in his first game which would be 6.5x value at this current price point and his ability to dominate across all statistical categories makes him my top play on this slate.
Kawhi gets an extremely favorable match-up with the Kings who gave up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing SF last season. The spread on this game opened at 6.5 and with the game being in Sacramento it should help mitigate the blow out risk and allow Kawhi a full complement of minutes.
Jonathan Simmons ($4,000) One of the biggest takeaways from Tuesday night’s game for the Spurs was the emergence of Simmons in place of the injured Danny Green. Although Kyle Anderson got the start for the Spurs, it was Simmons who played the majority of the minutes (28) while racking up 20 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 blocked shot.
Simmons put up 29.3 FanDuel points which exceeds 7.3x value at this bargain price point and he makes for a great salary saver in a favorable match-up with the Kings. Keep an eye on the pre-game lineup news, as Danny Green is expected to miss this game and it will be interesting to see if Simmons gets the start which would further enhance his value!
FanDuel NBA – Top PF’s and C
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,800) As impressive as Kawhi Leonard was on Tuesday it may have been Aldridge who had the best performance on the Spurs and he sets up well for a repeat performance on Thursday.
Aldridge put up 26 points, 14 rebounds and 47.3 FanDuel points (6x value) in the opening win against the Warriors and he gets the opportunity to face a Kings defense that gave up the 5th most points to opposing PF last season.
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Blake Griffin ($8,600) & DeAndre Jordan ($8,000) With the salary savings we got at SG, I am looking to pay up across the front line and will look to stack the Clippers big men against the Portland front court.
We saw what opposing big men could do against the Portland front court on Tuesday as Rudy Gobert put up 12 points and 14 rebounds and I expect the Clippers duo to put up elite numbers in this match-up.
Last season, Portland gave up the 5th most points to opposing centers which makes Jordan my top play at the position. With DeMarcus Cousins facing the Spurs, pivoting down to Jordan is a wise use of salary and it would not surprise me to see Jordan end the night as the top scoring center.
Griffin has outstanding career numbers against Portland over 18 games where he has averaged 21.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.3 assist and over 1 steal a game. Power forward is one of the best spots to pay up on this slate and being able to target a player with Griffin’s upside for under $9k is a no-brainer in all formats!