Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first few days we have seen winning GPP point totals in line with our initial expectations with tournament scores ranging from 373 on Tuesday night to 412.8 on Wednesday. With value ranging from 6.2 to 6.8x salary, we need to shoot a bit higher here in the early season while prices are still soft.
Thursday night we saw scores move back a bit to the 350 range as lineups built around Kawhi Leonard and Blake Griffin were the common top performers!
Friday’s Main NBA preseason action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Before I get into the specific picks, let me give you a little oversight into how I see this slate initially. We have three games that are must exposure spots:
- Houston-Dallas – Total 224
- Golden State – New Orleans – Total 216
- OKC – Phoenix – Total 213
We also head into this slate with an absolutely loaded top end of the player pool and this may be a great night to roll out a stars/scrubs approach!
Russell Westbrook ($12,000) One of the key rules of DFS in previous years was that you played Russell Westbrook when Kevin Durant was out. On Wednesday night, we got to see what the Thunder look like post KD, and Westbrook responded with a near triple-double as he put up 32 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists which was good for 57.9 FanDuel points.
Watching that game it was evident that the Victor Oladipo is hesitant to take on the clear #2 role and the Thunder players seemed to be standing around and letting Westbrook simply play 1 on 5. That game to me was all the reinforcement I needed to see that Westbrook is a must play for me until the price gets to a level that makes roster construction impossible. His usage will be at league high levels all season long and in a game with an up tempo Suns team, this is where every roster should start!
Tim Frazier ($5,300) If we want to fit in the stars on this slate we are going to have to find top end value, and Frazier is going to be one of my favorite PG’s to target in DFS until his price rises. Frazier was on the cusp of a triple-double in his opening start as he racked up 15 points, 11 assists and 5 rebounds while putting up 40.5 FanDuel points!
At this price point, to get 7.6x value from a player with a clear starting role who is guaranteed major minutes is playable in all formats on Friday night. Add in the fact now that this game against Golden State has the second highest total on the night and I plan on running Frazier out in all lineups with Westbrook!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,300) Wednesday night was our first taste of James Harden as the point guard in the up tempo Houston offense and boy did he deliver! Harden put up his usual elite scoring numbers (34 points) while racking up 17 assists and 8 rebounds for a massive 64.1 FanDuel points.
On Friday we get Harden in the game with the highest team total and similar to Westbrook this feels like a night where if you fade, you simply don’t cash!
Harden had a whopping 55% usage rate in the opening game and I see no reason to think that will change anytime soon! Similar to Tuesday night, it feels like a case where you either lock Harden and Westbrook in and find value elsewhere or play the fade and hope for the best. If Wednesday night was any indication, Westbrook and Harden were between 45%-50% owned so by rostering the two must own players I believe I have an immediate edge on half the field!
Nick Young ($3,500) When you are looking for your value plays, the key to me is finding players with guaranteed minutes and after opening the season as the Lakers starting SG, I believe Nick Young is the type of player we want Friday night.
Young started and played 27 minutes and delivered a reasonable 15.1 FanDuel points which is good for 4.3x value. At this price point, Swaggy P would only need 21 points to hit 6x value and if we get confirmation he is starting again on Friday he makes for an ideal high upside SG bargain play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
The top of the Small Forward tier includes LeBron James and Kevin Durant both at sub $10k price points and both coming off 50+ point outings. If you are creating multiple lineups, I like the idea of trying to fit both of these in if you are fading Harden/Westbrook as I expect most will allocate their high-end salary to those two which may lead the two elite SF’s to be under-owned!
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,200) Bogdanovic got the start for the Nets on opening night and ended up leading the team in scoring with 21 points on his way to a 27 FD point performance. At this price point, a similar game would result in 6x value and with starters minutes he makes for a great value play on an offensive starved Nets team!
Brandon Ingram ($3,900) If you are looking for a cheap SF flier, there may be no player more talented at this price point than Lakers rookie Brandon Ingram. Ingram saw some significant run for the Lakers on opening night as he played 24 minutes off the bench but was only able to produce 11.6 FD points.
Ingram has an elite talent level and when rolling out large field GPP lineups, I want to target players that are capable of putting up a big night and I believe Ingram is one of the few players with the ability to do that at this price point. The match-up with the Jazz may scare some people away but with a team total of 201.5, this is not a spot I feel like we have to avoid entirely.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Anthony Davis ($10,800) Wow. Just wow. After a 95.7 FD performance on opening night (yes, read that again) – the ownership on AD is going to be one of the most fascinating parts of this slate and I cannot wait to see how it unfolds.
AD is as polarizing a DFS target as there is in the NBA as his injury history makes him a volatile target that has burned his fair share of investors! The issue with fading him as we saw on opening night is that he has the ability to put up numbers that essentially either allow you to cash alongside him or stand on the outside looking in.
And yes, I am building a lineup with Westbrook-Harden-Davis. Go big or go home right?
Davis and the Pelicans are in the second highest scoring game of the night going up against a Warriors team that was embarrassed on opening night. It is unreasonable to think AD will match the 75% usage rate he had in the opener, but this is a player who has averaged 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Warriors in his career so the match-up does not worry me at all. In fact, AD is going to have to put this team on his back to keep pace with a motivated Golden State squad!
And yes, I am building a lineup with Westbrook-Harden-Davis. Go big or go home right?
Marvin Williams ($5,100) With Frank Kaminsky out with an injury, Marvin Williams is being asked to own the PF spot for the Hornets and he responded in the opening game with 29 minutes, 13 points and 10 rebounds while putting up 29 FanDuel points. With Kaminsky likely out again Friday, Williams makes for a solid play against the Miami Heat as he should get 30+ minutes for the Hornets!
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If you have the salary, going up an additional $200 for Enes Kanter ($5,300) who is coming off a 17 point, 12 rebound 34 FanDuel point performance on opening night. Kanter gets to face a Suns team he should be able to exploit inside and with one of the highest projected point totals this is an easy way to get exposure!
One additional play at this price point would be Serge Ibaka ($5,500) who was the mega chalk on Wednesday and after a disappointing 24 FD points and a slight price increase we should see the masses move away from him which is exactly when we should stay the course! Ibaka is the starting PF for an uptempo Magic offense and had a stellar pre-season so do not overreact to one game!
Roy Hibbert ($3,900) Ok who saw that first game coming? Hibbert was flat-out dominant on opening night as he played 32 minutes scored 15 points, 9 rebounds and blocked 5 shots for a 38.3 FD point total which is nearly 10x value!
I do not expect the same output with a game against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat but I expect Hibbert will get major run as he tries to contain Whiteside and assuming he can stay out of foul trouble should have no problem returning value at a near punt price point!
Next: DraftKings NBA Picks October 28
Best of luck on Friday Night! Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook for all the latest breaking news and lineup insights!