Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 5 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at just over 375 a night which means we have needed 6.25x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Jeremy Lin ($6,500) The Brooklyn-Chicago game opened with the highest projected team total of 210 and has already moved up to 212 since the line opened. Lin is averaging 34.7 points per game through 3 early season contests which would exceed 5.3x value at this price point.
In a game that is projected to be high scoring and relatively close (spread between 5-6 points), Lin should dominate the touches for the Nets and with the “defense” of Rajon Rondo opposing him, this is an exploitable match-up at a price point that screams upside!
Chris Paul ($9,300) CP3 gets the best match-up possible for a fantasy point guard as he gets to take on a Phoenix Suns team that is giving up a league high 61.5 points per game to opposing PG’s this season. Add on top of it that the Suns are playing back to back night against the Warriors and Clippers and this should be a spot that Paul exploits for a huge night!
Paul opened the season with 41.5 FD points against Portland but fell back in a tough match up Sunday against the Jazz with only 31.1 points. This should be a spot however where CP3 is able to flourish in an up tempo game that sits with a team total of 210 (just behind the Nets-Bulls).
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Will Barton ($5,300) The shooting guard position on this slate is a spot I will look to save salary at and target some of the elite pure scorers in the $4k-$5k range. With Gary Harris out with an injury, Barton has stepped into the starting lineups and is playing major minutes – 35 and 41 in his last two games.
Barton has averaged 28.9 FD points per game which would exceed 5.4x value at this price point and assuming Harris is out again he makes for a great salary saving play with tremendous upside.
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,000) Kilpatrick is quickly becoming one of my favorite DFS value plays as he has carved out a critical role off the bench for the Brooklyn Nets, playing 22-25 minutes per game. Kilpatrick has scored in double digits in every single game this season and is averaging 21.8 FD points per game which is over 5.4x value at this price point. The Nets and Bulls are projected to have the biggest team total and getting exposure to it at value spots in our lineup allows us to spend up for the top plays at other positions!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
T.J. Warren ($5,500) Similar to the Barton play, I love the guaranteed minutes and production we are getting each night from Warren at a mid-range price point. So far this season, Warren has played 46 and 30 minutes as the starting SF for the Suns while averaging 34.9 FanDuel points per game (not including the Sunday game against GS which is going on as I write this).
In addition to increased scoring (30 pts in his last game), Warren is averaging 7 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game which adds to his upside. If Warren can continue to produce 6.3x value at this price point he makes for an easy play in all formats.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,300) Going back to the Nets-Bulls game for some value and back to a familiar DFS SF bargain target in Bogdanovic! Bojan has stepped into a major role in the Nets offensive attack and may have played his way into the starting shooting guard spot with his recent play.
Bogdanovic has averaged 17 points, 4.7 rebounds and 23.6 FanDuel points in 3 games this season. Bojan has been more of a GPP flier to this point with two games over 27 FD points and one dud at only 7.2 points but in no game has he played less than 23 minutes so as long as his minutes remain steady he should be a great source of point per dollar value in a high tempo game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Blake Griffin ($9,000) If you have been following along you have noticed a salary saving approach at SG and SF and that is for the sole purpose of being able to spend up on the big men tonight. Griffin comes into this game against the Suns with back to back double-doubles and 42 FanDuel points per game in his first two contests.
Blake should dominate the Suns up front as they do not have the size to match up with him and with DeAndre Jordan leaving Sunday’s game with a hand injury, Griffin may be asked to take on an even bigger role in the Clippers front court.
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Nikola Jokic ($6,100) After recommending Jokic in this spot on Saturday, he responded with a monster 55.4 FanDuel performance as he put up 23 points and 17 boards in 34 minutes. Jokic has entirely too much upside for this price point and faces a Raptors team that has given up 45 FanDuel points per game against opposing PF this season.
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,900) On a short slate like we have on Monday, I am going to look to build around the top end studs as we can afford a CP3 – Blake – Cousins stacks as they are all priced under $10k.
Boogie is the premier center on this slate and frankly it is not all that close. Cousins is averaging 44.6 FanDuel points per game and although the match-up with the Hawks and Dwight Howard is not a cake walk, there is no reason to fade the best center on the board. Lock Boogie in and look to differentiate elsewhere!