Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 6 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at just over 372 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,900) The marquee game on the night from a DFS perspective takes place at the end of the night with the Trail Blazers taking on the Warriors and we will want to ensure we have plenty of exposure to this one. The early team total for this game is 226.5 which is over 8 points higher than the next closest game and a full on game stack is absolutely in play here!
Of all the players on the slate, Lillard is averaging the third most FanDuel points so far this season as he has put up 50.9 points a game. Lillard has tremendous numbers against the Warriors, including last season when he averaged 36.5 points and 6.5 assists per game.
In the highest scoring game of the night, I want to ensure I have exposure to Portland’s most explosive player who has scored 37+points in two of his opening three games this season.
Tim Frazier ($5,500) What if I told you that you could roster the point guard who is averaging the third most FD points per game on this slate but is priced as the 15th most expensive PG! Tim Frazier continues to be overlooked by the pricing algorithm and I am happy to take the discount on a night where we will need value to fit in the top end plays.
Frazier started out the season with back to back 40 point games before a predictable let down against the Spurs in his last start. This hiccup may actually lead his ownership to be lower than it should be at this price as Frazier is locked into major minutes as the starting PG for the Pelicans having played over 34 minutes in 2 of his first 3 starts.
I understand the appeal in paying up for Stephen Curry against Portland but you are able to get a player who is averaging more points per game for more than $3k of savings!
Kris Dunn($4,000) With the news that Ricky Rubio is out indefinitely, Dunn will step into the starting PG role and makes for one of the best punt plays on this slate. Dunn should see 30+ minutes and although the match-up against Memphis is not ideal, the price point allows us to target 6-7x upside and he pairs easily with Lillard in any format.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Klay Thompson ($5,800) The Warriors and Blazers should be full of fantasy goodness and Klay gives us cheap exposure to one of the highest upside players in the game. Klay has struggled so far this season but the minutes have been plentiful (between 33 and 40 minutes in each game) and at this price point there is significant upside based off his time on the court.
The biggest issue so far has been the inefficient shooting as Klay is shooting just 42.9% from the floor and an abysmal 14.3% from three-point range. The positive here is the volume of shot attempts remains high, as Thompson is averaging 16.3 field goal attempts per game including 7 three-pointers.
Consider that Thompson is a career 41% shooter from three-point range so once these shots start falling we will see some big scoring totals follow. At this price point in the highest scoring game of the night, lock Klay in as part of your tournament lineups!
Nick Young ($3,600) As the starting shooting guard for the Lakers, Young makes for a tremendous punt play considering his role in the offense. Young is averaging 26+ minutes per game and 12.3 points on 10 shot attempts which considering this near minimum price allows you to target some significant usage!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,900) The top play on this slate for me and a must in every single lineup, Durant is averaging 57.4 points per game which is second on the slate behind Anthony Davis. The price point still sits below $10k and considering Durant has yet to put up a sub 53 point outing, this feels like the easiest selection you will make tonight.
Considering that Durant will be in the highest scoring game of the night, I will look to build around Durant in all formats and let others make the mistake of being contrarian.
James Ennis ($4,400) When you play DFS every single day you tend to find “your guys” that you look for in certain spots and when looking for a value SF, Ennis has been that guy for me this season.
Ennis continues to start for Memphis with Chandler Parsons out with an injury and has responded well, averaging 23 FD point which exceed 5.2x value at this price point. Ennis also gets to take on a Minnesota team that have given up the most points to opposing small forwards on the season and makes for a great value play on this star-studded slate
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Anthony Davis ($11,000) The Brow is the absolute perfect DFS GPP play as his ability to single handily take you above the cash line or sink your night makes him a great target any time he takes the floor. After two monster performances to start the season where Davis notched 95 and 76 FanDuel points, AD came back to Earth in his last start against the Spurs with only 29 points.
The question with AD is always whether to fade or no but this is a spot where after a down game I am looking to get back on board as quickly as possible as the “luster” of those first two performances may not be as fresh in gamers minds!
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Serge Ibaka ($5,500) Ibaka gets one of the best match-ups on the board as he takes on the 76ers who have given up the third most fantasy points to opposing PF’s on the season. Outside of a blowout against Detroit, Ibaka has been locked into 30+ minutes which makes him a safe play to utilize when filling in your lineup around the high-end stars on the slate.
Joel Embiid ($4,500) I cannot wait for Embiid to finally be unleashed on the NBA but for now, we get to utilize one of the best point per dollar values at the Center position. The news has already come out that Embiid will play on Tuesday and sit out on Wednesday so I would expect Embiid to get his normal 20 minutes of action in a favorable spot against the Magic.
Embiid has averaged 24.6 points per game this season, which is 5.5x value at his price point and with the depressed salary he will allow you to pay up for the high-priced stars in your roster while still targeting a player in the 5x-6x value range.