Indians Jason Kipnis: Is the Power Surge For Real?

Jason Kipnis was the catalyst for the Indians’ offense this season. But, can fantasy owners believe in him heading into 2017?

It was a shame that someone had to lose Game 7 last night, as it will forever be known as one of the better playoff games ever. While the Indians came up short, that was of no fault of Jason Kipnis. Kipnis had a career best season in 2016, but is prone to year-to-year inconsistency. So, can fantasy owners trust him in 2017?

Jason Kipnis is one of the better second basemen in baseball, but it has always been hard to pinpoint what type of player he is. Just a few years ago, it looked as though he was going to be a perennial 20 HR/20 SB threat, but then it matter of an instant, the steals and the power vanished. His AVG has been even harder to predict, as he has hit anywhere from .303 to .240.

In 2016, Kipnis finally put everything together to post a, .275/23 HR/82 RBI/15 SB/91 R/.811 OPS line. He chipped in another 40+ 2B, and became the consistent run producer that the Tribe needed. If we were to simplify what changed in 2016, Kipnis hit more fly balls, and started to pull the ball with more authority.

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While his LD rate did drop to 24%, he raised his FB rate by 10%, while dropping his GB rate down below to 38%. Digging deeper, he dropped his Soft contact rate down to only 13%, posted another 50% Med contact rate, and raised his Hard contact by 5%, to a 36% clip.

Combine that with him posting a career first 40%+ Pull rate, and it easy to see why the power resurfaced. Kipnis did not need one tremendous month this season to boost his seasonal line either. Even though he did slow down in September, from April to August, Kipnis posted at least 3 HR/13 RBI each month.

He avoided the injury bug this season as well, yet the SB have steadily dipped. In 2012 and 2013, he had 37 SB attempts. Since then, the attempts have dropped from 25, to 20, and then 18 in 2016. There be should be no reason to think that he can not chip in 15 SB, but the 20 SB days are gone.

The quandary fantasy owners will have, is can the HR and AVG numbers be replicated? The Indians will once again have a solid offensive unit heading into 2017, so the RBI and R totals will be there. In terms of his AVG, outside of a rough 2014, Kipnis has posted at least a .275 AVG over the last four years. He also happens to have back to back 40+ 2B seasons, so his XBH prowess seems to be legit.

Even though his batted ball data paints a picture of a hitter that looks primed to turn into a power source, owners should look for more tangible evidence. Kipnis attributes his surge to him adapting to pitchers trying to come more inside on him, and abandoning his opposite field focus. This serves as an encouraging piece of evidence, but also reinforces some of the concern.

Clearly pitchers will start to once again attack Kipnis away, yet he has made it clear that he has no problem going back to a high AVG opposite field approach. The 2B position gained some fantasy depth this season, but Kipnis serves as one of the more puzzling cases.

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Fantasy owners need to be trepidatious when it comes to selecting Jason Kipins next season. The talent is there, and he has shown that he can be a fantasy dynamo, but it is just too hard to invest a mid round pick on him. The 9 HR/12 SB line in 2015, and 6 HR/22 SB in 2014, are just too hard to completely overlook. Look for Kipnis to post solid counting stats, but the rest of his potential line is completely unpredictable.

Early 2017 Projection: .280/17 HR/75 RBI/15 SB/85 R/.800 OPS