Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 11 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 364.9 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
John Wall (9,200) Looking over the Monday slate the highest implied team total sits with the Golden State Warriors at 120 points but with a 17.5 spread at home against New Orleans this has major blow out potential and makes for a spot I believe we can strategically fade.
The biggest reason I am comfortable with that approach is the Washington-Houston game is projected to be similarly high scoring (216 team totals) and with a 1.5 point spread we should see a competitive game that allows the stars to play major minutes.
After getting Saturday night off for rest, John Wall returns for the Wizards and is in a fantastic spot to put up big time DFS numbers. Wall is averaging 47.5 points over his last three games which is actually over a point more than Russell Westbrook during that same time period and you can roster him for a $2,500 discount!
Kemba Walker ($7,800) The Hornets are in a sneaky spot to target on this slate as they have the 4th highest team total and will see a significant pace up game against the Pacers. Indiana is 25th in the NBA in DvP versus opposing PG’s and looking over Kemba’s game logs you can see an incredibly consistent 33-37 FD points per game. From a cash game perspective Walker makes for one of the safest “floor” plays you can find at PG and his match-up actually gives him some sneaky GPP upside on this slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,800) With so many superstars on the slate, we may have to find the one we are most focused on rostering and considering the match-up and the position scarcity, Harden is my #1 target!
Harden is averaging 57 FD points per game this season which is second to Westbrook but with the Rockets having the third highest team total in essentially a pick-em against the Wizards, I love this spot for The Beard.
With Anthony Davis in a potential blowout game against the Warriors and Westbrook in a tough match-up against Miami, Harden is the easy top superstar for me and will be in 100% of my lineups on this slate!
Nicolas Batum ($6,400) Going back to the Charlotte-Indiana game, I expect Batum will be overlooked on this slate as the shooting guard position is essentially Harden and then “everyone else.”
Batum is the 3rd most expensive SG on the slate and I expect the common strategy will be to pair Harden with some of the $5k shooting guards which may leave Batum under-owned! So far this season Batum has a 31% usage rate (4th among SG on the slate) and gets to face the Pacers who are 20th in DvP. This is a great spot to take a shot on Batum at lower than expected ownership!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Justise Winslow ($5,000) The Heat get a match-up against OKC and see the biggest pace increase of any team on the slate. Winslow continues to be a tremendous value, averaging 27 FD points per game which is 5x his salary for this game! Winslow is locked into major minutes for Miami and with a reasonable 6 point spread we should see the Heat players get major run in this one with Winslow one of the best point per dollar value plays on the board!
C.J. Miles ($4,200) The SF spot is a great place to save salary as I intend to fade the high priced guys including Kevin Durant in a likely blow out game against the Pelicans. Miles is averaging 22.2 FD points per game which is 5.2x value at this price point and Miles has actually exceed 6x value in each of his last two games. If you are looking for top end GPP value, Miles is a great high upside scoring option which allows you to save salary for other spots!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Markieff Morris ($5,800) Heading back to the Washington-Houston game, I love the upside that Markieff Morris has in this spot as his price point continues to be too low! Morris is locked into 30+ minutes every single night and has put up 34 and 36 FD points in back to back games which is 6x value at this price point.
More from FanSided
- 3 reasons the Blazers should trade Damian Lillard to the Heat and 2 reasons they shouldn’t
- LeBron James, Giannis, Damian Lillard all want that Mbappé money
- Is this Alex Morgan’s last Women’s World Cup with the USWNT?
- 3 reasons the NY Giants won Saquon Barkley contract negotiations
- MLB rumors: Nolan Arenado suitor, Tim Anderson landing spots, Mets reliever not enjoying trade talk
Enes Kanter ($4,800) From a GPP perspective, I love using Kanter as he is a boom or bust double-double at a bargain price. So far this season Kanter has two games over 34 points and two games in single digits so the risk is real, however with a game against Miami, I expect Kanter will be used heavily with Hassan Whiteside on the floor and makes for a high upside GPP target on this slate.
Joel Embiid ($5,000) At this point, you almost have to ignore the minutes restriction with The Process and roll this guy out every night! Embiid is coming off back to back 36+ point games which far exceeds our target 6x at this price point and as a result of his minutes restriction it keeps hiw ownership low! The match-up against the Jazz should help keep that number even lower and he makes for a great GPP target!