FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 8
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 12 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 365 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,800) The top game to target on this six game slate can be found in Portland as the Blazers and Suns have the highest combined team total at 215.5 on the slate so locking in the best player this game has to offer is a clear building block for any lineup construction.
The Suns are giving up 51 FD points per game to opposing point guards which is the 4th highest average in the NBA which makes Lillard the clear top dollar PG to target on FanDuel. These two teams met just 5 days ago with Lillard posting 27 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists for 40.5 FanDuel points.
Lillard is a plug and play option for me in cash games and there are few PG’s in the entire league that have the upside he does which puts him squarely in play for GPP’s as well!
Kyrie Irving ($7,300) The PG position on Tuesday is surprisingly ugly which makes paying up at both spots a viable strategy to lock in a safe floor for our lineups. Kyrie and the Cavs take on the Hawks who have given up 54.06 FD points to opposing PG’s this season which is the highest mark of any team in the NBA which makes Kyrie a phenomenal target in this spot.
The Atlanta-Cleveland game has the second highest combined team total at 208 so getting exposure to one of the stars of this game at a reasonable price point is a great move in all formats. The point guard position is littered with injured players on this slate so I will look to lock in the two highest priced options as a both Kyrie and Lillard sit in top 5 DvP match-ups we can look to exploit!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Sean Kilpatrick ($4,900) With Jeremy Lin out with an injury, the Nets have had to look to other options to drive their offense and Kilpatrick has been one of the key beneficiaries as a top playmaker for Brooklyn.
Kilpatrick is coming off back to back outings where he put up 41 and 31 FD points and at this price point only needs 29.4 to hit 6x value! Kilpatrick is averaging over 30 minutes a game over these last two contests with a well-rounded game across the stat sheet that leads to big time DFS upside! The price is entirely too cheap here and with the Nets-Timberwolves in the third highest projected scoring game of the night, this is a great spot to save some salary while not forfeiting upside!
Zach Lavine ($5,900) One of the best strategies to consistently win money in DFS is to target offenses against the Brooklyn Nets and Minnesota comes into this game with their entire starting lineup squarely in play at bargain price points.
The Nets have given up 46.97 FD points this season to opposing SG’s which is the third highest mark in the league and with Ricky Rubio out, Lavine is being asked to take on more play-making duties. Lavine is coming off a dud in his last game so this may be a spot where recency bias keeps gamers away and we can target him at reduced ownership!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Harrison Barnes ($5,700) Small forward is loaded in the mid-tier which allows us to spend up at other spots and I love locking in Harrison Barnes on this slate against the Lakers. With Dirk Nowitzki out with an injury, Barnes is the clear top offensive option for Dallas and he responded to this role last game out with 34 points (on 26 shots), 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals for a massive 49.6 FD points.
The Lakers present a middle of the road match-up from a DvP perspective here but we can expect the usage for Barnes to continue to be massive and although he should be popular after last game, the price point is simply too good to pass up on this slate!
T.J. Warren ($6,400) At some point the price for Warren will be too rich for my blood but we are absolutely not yet there and I am happy to lock in the talented Suns forward in the highest scoring game of the night!
Warren is averaging 34.8 FD points this season which exceed 5.4x value and takes on a Portland team he just dropped 41.4 FD points (6.4x value) against in their meeting just five days ago!
The value and upside at the mid-tier price points make Warren and Barnes ideal cash game targets to build your lineup but have clear 6x upside based off their expanded offensive roles for their respective clubs!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Gorgui Dieng ($6,000) Dieng started off the season with 3 straight 35+ FD point outings but has sputtered in his last two starts which may draw his ownership down. Dieng gets a favorable match-up here against the Nets who have struggled against opposing big men, having surrendered the 6th most FD points to opposing PF’s this season.
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Trevor Booker ($5,300) This Nets-Wolves games is going to be a sneaky game for me to target as we have a decent combined team total and a close spread of only 4 points which should among to plenty of run for the starters!
Booker is coming off a double-double in his last game, his third double-double in only six games this season, and should be heavily leaned on to run with the Minnesota front court. The match-up here is tough as Minnesota is the stingiest in the league to opposing PF’s so this is a GPP flier only, but with Lin out of the picture, Booker should continue to take on an expanded role and I expect he will be widely over-looked on this slate
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700) It has been tough to roster KAT in the early going as the team faced a lot of tough match-ups but in this spot against the Nets we could be looking at a monster night from a player priced entirely too low for his talent level.
The Nets are giving up over 53 FD points to opposing centers this season, the 7th highest mark in the league and I do not see any ways that Towns fails to dominate this undermanned Nets team. Since Vegas expects this game to stay close, I have no problem stacking the Minnesota starters and will look to build KAT into every single one of my lineups on this slate!