FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 14

Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!

The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.

One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!

To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.

This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.

Over the first 18 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!

Monday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Plays

J.J. Barea ($5,800) After two straight 34 FD point outings (5.8x value) starting for the injured Deron Williams, Barea was a late scratch for rest purposes in his last game which may lead people to overlook him just as he was starting to become popular.

Williams has already been ruled out for Monday so we should see Barea start at PG against the Knicks and play 30-35 minutes as the primary ball-handler for Dallas. Point guard is actually relatively loaded at the mid-tier price range and I love the idea of dropping down for 5-6x value plays here so that I can afford the top end stars on the slate at other positions.

Marcus Smart ($5,100) Although he is listed as a PG on FanDuel, Smart is starting at SF for the injured Jae Crowder and gets to face a Pelicans team that is giving up the 5th most points to opposing SF’s on the season.

The Celtics-Pelicans game should be one of the best games to target on this slate with a combined team total of 211.5 and I am hopeful Smart will be overlooked after a dud in his last game. Smart had played 35 minutes/game in his previous two contests and put up 32 FD points a game before only 16 points on Saturday night when he was relatively chalky.

Some may look to move off Smart after that outing but keep in mind he still played 34 minutes and put up 11 shots on Saturday so the usage/opportunity remains high and this is a great spot to go back to Smart at lower than peak ownership!

FanDuel NBA -Top Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,700) With six straight games of 50+ FanDuel points and back to back triple doubles, you are officially in fade at your own risk territory with Harden. Monday night the Rockets take on the Sixers in a game with the highest projected combined team total at 216.5 and with the Sixers giving up the 6th most points to opposing PG’s, Harden is a lock play for me in every format.

I certainly understand the strategic fade but when you factor in the general weakness that the SG position has on a nightly basis, I will look to put Harden into my lineup each and every night and build my lineup around his 50 point floor.

Josh Richardson ($3,800) With Goran Dragic out with an injury, Richardson stepped into the starting lineup on Saturday and put up 26.6 FD points in 33 minutes of action against the Jazz. With a similarly tough match-up against the Spurs, I expect most will fade this game but Richardson has proven he can provide elite value in non-ideal spots.

My recommendation on this slate is to pay up for at least two of the stars so we will need value in our lineup and getting a starting player with guaranteed minutes who just hit 7x value in a similar spot frees up so much cap space elsewhere!

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards

Gordon Hayward ($7,700) The Utah-Memphis game is another “blah” game I initially thought i would fade entirely, but the production that Hayward is putting up on a nightly basis forces us to take notice! Hayward has three straight 40+ FD point outings and with Derrick Favors again nursing an injury, the offense is clearly running through Hayward which makes him one of the safest cash game plays on the slate. Considering that Carmelo Anthony is only $100 more, Hayward may get a bit overlooked but considering his recent production I will look to get significant exposure to the Jazz star on this slate!

Robert Covington ($4,800) From a cash game staple to a GPP flier, Covington looks to have finally broken out of his early season struggles and gives us a cheap way to get exposure to the high scoring Sixers-Rockets match-up.

Covington continues to see 30+ minutes on a nightly basis and has hoisted up 39 shots in the last three games while averaging 27.5 FD points (5.7x value). In a high scoring contest, Covington is a great GPP play due to his immense scoring upside and his price point is deflated enough that his guaranteed minutes actually put him in consideration for cash games as well!

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center

Anthony Davis ($11,500) On Saturday Night, The Brow reminded us of his “volatile” DFS nature when he lay on the floor with a back injury and went to the locker room. I got the alert of the injury and immediately thought, well there goes my night but Davis returned to play 35 minutes and put up 49.6 FD points which is his 5th straight game with over 47 FanDuel points.

There is absolutely risk here but the PF spot is UGLY on this slate and there is no player at the position who remotely possesses the upside that Davis does. The Celtics present a favorable match-up to opposing front courts and with a high projected combined team total and only a 4 point spread, this is a great spot to pay up for AD!

More from FanSided

Amir Johnson ($4,200) No team gives up more points to opposing PF’s than the Pelicans so a mini-stack of the PF’s in this game makes for an interesting high-low salary strategy. With the emergence of Kelly Olynyk while Al Horford is out, Johnson may be overlooked but he did play 31 minutes in his last game and racked up 14 points, 9 rebounds and 28.3 FanDuel points!

Joel Embiid ($5,400) The Process just continues to deliver on a nightly basis in DFS and I will continue to go back to him as long as the price point remains at a point where the upside is not yet priced in! Embiid delivered another phenomenal performance on Saturday in 26 minutes as he scored 25 points, grabbed 7 boards and racked up 33.4 FanDuel points.

Embiid now has 33+ FanDuel points in 3 of his last 4 games which is 5x value at this price point so we should feel comfortable going back to him again on Monday night when he returns to the court for the Sixers!

Next: Who will be the top Fantasy Basketball player this season?

Best of luck on Monday night in your FanDuel games – we will see you back here for Tuesday’s slate!