Phillies: Jeremy Hellickson Stays in Philly, Fantasy Projections

By Bill Pivetz | Nov 14, 2016

Sep 23, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (58) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

Phillies starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson accepted his qualifying offer and will remain with the team in 2017. What is his fantasy value for next season?

The Philadelphia Phillies were not a very good team last season. The team did show promise in certain areas, one of them being starting pitching. The Phillies will go into next season with most of their rotation set after the Monday afternoon news. Jeremy Hellickson accepted the qualifying offer and will not test free agency. How will he pitch in his second season in Philly?

Hellickson had a couple of good seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, but the numbers ended up evening out and keeping steady since then. He had a 4.52 and 4.62 ERA in his two prior seasons. He was then traded to the Phillies after just one season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The move to the National League East looks to have helped Hellickson get things right. In 32 starts, a career high, he had a 3.71 ERA, 1.153 WHIP and a 12-10 record. While those numbers may not be the best, Hellickson was the best pitcher for the team.

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Hellickson posted a 7.33 K/9, just a tad down from 2015, but also lowered his BB/9 from 2.65 to 2.14. He also posted 40.7 ground ball and 34.4 fly ball rates. His hard hit rate dropped by almost nine percent between 2015 and 2016.

Next season should be another good season for Hellickson. He pitched well against his divisional opponents. He had a 4.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 6-6 record.

The numbers were skewed by the 7.77 ERA and 1.73 WHIP against the New York Mets in five starts. I expect that to regress to the mean in 2017.

Hellickson will likely be the No. 1 starter for the Phillies with Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Alec Asher behind him. While the Phillies would love to have a big-time starting pitcher, the free agent market does not have many of those players available.

In a standard 10-team league, Hellickson should be drafted as an SP4 with upside. His value obviously increases in NL-only or deeper leagues. He went undrafted in ESPN leagues last season, but I don’t think that will be the case next year.

Next: Does Bartolo Colon have one good year left?

If Hellickson can repeat his performance next season, then he will finish as a top-50 pitcher again. It’s very likely he will have another good season in Philadelphia.

With a better offense, we could even see a better win-loss ratio, but lets not get crazy. It is the Phillies we’re talking about.

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