Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 19 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($11,500) Wednesday night at 8:00PM EST we get to see Oklahoma City-Houston face off meaning for the first time this season we get Russell Westbrook versus James Harden and DFS players everywhere rejoice!
This game is going to be nearly impossible to fade as we get a game with the highest opening team total at 219 and the two highest usage DFS superstars that FanDuel has to offer going up against each other. Westbrook has eclipsed the 50 point mark in four straight games and gets to shine in a high tempo, pace up game for OKC. Even on a large slate, Westbrook feels like a must play in this spot and I expect him to put on an absolute show in this one!
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,600) One of the reasons we can afford to pay up for Westbrook tonight is we have a large slate with a tremendous amount of early value that will only increase as news breaks throughout the day. The Nuggets-Suns game has a combined team total at 219 which is equal to the OKC-Houston game so we have the ability to get significant upside across a variety of cost-effective players in this game.
The Suns are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing PG’s so this is a great spot to target Mudiay on Wednesday night. Mudiay is a volatile target best suited for GPP’s as over his last 5 games he has 3 games over 30 and 2 games under 20 FD points but this is a match-up where we can target his upside while getting exposure to a high scoring up-tempo game!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,500) As I mentioned earlier, I want as much exposure as I can get to this Westbrook-Harden match-up and you can easily stack these two players and still have $5.2k per player to build your lineup with.
Harden has 7 straight games with 50+ points and gets to face a OKC team that is giving up the second most points to opposing PG’s on the season. Harden is a must play for me on most nights and in this spot I have no interest in fading him as I expect Westbrook/Harden to put up monster numbers as they go against each other!
Norman Powell ($4,000) The Golden State-Toronto game opened with a similarly high 218 combined team total and with DeMarre Carroll out, Powell has stepped into the starting lineup the last two games which makes him a great punt play in a high scoring game.
Powell has put up 30 (7.5x) and 21.1 FD points (5.3x) in these two starts and as long as he continues to start for Toronto is an easy bargain play that allows you to target 5-7x and still lock in the Westbrook/Harden combo!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Small Forwards
Trevor Ariza ($5,300) Small forward is a great spot to save some salary on this slate as the 5-6k range of options is loaded with viable targets to build your lineups around but I want to extend my exposure to the OKC-Houston game and target Trevor Ariza here.
Ariza is locked into 30+ minutes every single night and is coming off his best fantasy performance of the year, 39.1(7.3x) FanDuel points in his last game against Philadelphia. The real value Ariza provides is in his elite steals upside as he has racked up at east 3 steals in each of his last 4 games and considering OKC is 8th in DvP against SF’s, this is a great spot for Ariza to again shoot for GPP winning upside at his price.
Robert Covington ($4,600) Covington is one of the best/worst GPP plays as his inconsistent play either leads you to the cash line or sinks your lineups entirely! Covington burned me in his last game against Houston with only 8 FanDuel points so I expect may will shy away from him here but the Wizards typically struggle against wing players and Covington has the ability on any given night to score in bunches while racking up steals!
Outside of his down game last time out, Covington had averaged 25.46 FD points per game in his previous five games which exceeds 5.5x value at this price point. The price point is such that even a pedestrian night should get you the 5x as a floor but Covington has 7x upside at this price and can be easily paired with the top end stars.
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Power Forwards and Center
Kenneth Faried ($6,000) Faried has entered the starting lineup for the Nuggets in place of Nikola Jokic and has racked up at least 11 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games. In his previous game against Portland he was able to supplement his usual rebounding prowess with 18 points, 4 blocks and 45 FD points in only 28 minutes of action.
More from FanSided
- 3 reasons the Blazers should trade Damian Lillard to the Heat and 2 reasons they shouldn’t
- LeBron James, Giannis, Damian Lillard all want that Mbappé money
- Is this Alex Morgan’s last Women’s World Cup with the USWNT?
- 3 reasons the NY Giants won Saquon Barkley contract negotiations
- MLB rumors: Nolan Arenado suitor, Tim Anderson landing spots, Mets reliever not enjoying trade talk
Heading back to this Nuggets-Suns lineup, Faried gets to face a Suns team that is giving up the 6th most points to opposing PF’s on the season and is locked into a major role in the Denver front court. The rebounds provide Faried a relatively safe floor and if he can continue to contribute as a scorer in this high paced game we should see another GPP worthy performance from The Manimal!
Markieff Morris ($5,900) Power forward is another spot where we can get great value in the $5-$6k range which works out perfectly in our Westbrook-Harden stacked lineup! Morris is coming off his best game of the season, 48 FanDuel points, as a result of the 24 points and 15 rebounds he notched against the Bulls.
Bradley Beal is questionable for this game and could be on a minutes restriction even if he does play so we should see increased usage for Markieff in this one and he makes for a great play in the mid-tier of the price range at PF.
Joel Embiid ($5,600) Center is ugly on this slate and I am happy to look to pay down and head back to the top point-per dollar center with Joel Embiid. The Process continues to be a usage monster as the focal point for the Sixers offense when he is on the floor and even in limited minutes is averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. As long as Embiid is priced below $6k he makes for a great point per dollar play on FanDuel as he has exceeded 33 FD points in 3 of his last 5 games!
***UPDATE: Embiid will be OUT on Wednesday! Clint Capela at $5,000 or Steven Adams at $5,100 make for interesting pivots at the same price point.
Best of luck on the Wednesday slate and we will see you back here for Thursday’s NBA Action!