Fansided

FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 17

By Brian Tulloch

Nov 5, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) hangs onto the rim after dunking for a basket in the third quarter during the game against the Sacramento Kings at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Bucks beat the Kings 117-91. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) hangs onto the rim after dunking for a basket in the third quarter during the game against the Sacramento Kings at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Bucks beat the Kings 117-91. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup! 

The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.

One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!

To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.

This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.

Over the first 20 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!

Thursday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!

FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Point Guards

Ricky Rubio ($6,600) Looking over this short 5 game slate we have a few games that look like pace down slug fests so we may have to get creative when building our lineups. The Timberwolves have the highest projected point total (112.5) on the night but also have a 11 point spread against the Sixers so the blow out risk is real.

This is a game I want to have exposure to but with the blow out risk, I want to try to pay down to get that exposure (sorry big KAT) and Rubio is a great way for us to do that. The Sixers are 20th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s and Rubio is averaging 32 FD points per game in his last two contests. What makes Rubio most intriguing is that he has the ability to rack up the non-scoring stats( 8 assists per game and 6 rebounds per in his last 3 games) so his ceiling is considerable in a match-up like this where if his shot is falling he has true triple-double upside.

Jerian Grant ($4,000) The PG spot is littered with injury questions so it will be important to watch the injury news throughout the day as John Wall, Goran Dragic, George Hill and Rajon Rondo are all at risk of missing Thursday’s games.

If Rondo misses Thursday’s games, Grant would likely draw another start after flourishing in that role his last time out. In 30 minutes of action, Grant was able to score 18 points while racking up 5 steals  and 34.6 FD points which is good for 8x value at this price point.

PG is a spot we will likely want to spend down on tonight as Damian Lillard gets a tough draw against the Rockets with Patrick Beverly expected back in the lineup. Keep an eye on the injury news and look to plug-in the value plays on the slate as they open up!

FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,700) With the salary savings we get at PG on this slate, we should look to the top end of the SG options when building our roster tonight as we get the ability to roster some of the best DFS options on a short slate!

Harden and the Rockets have the second highest projected team total (111) on the slate and with Vegas projecting the Rockets as 3.5 point favorites over Portland we should see Harden get his full complement of minutes.

Patrick Beverly is expected to return for this game so it will be interesting to see how the ball-handling duties are split between Beverly and Harden but considering the success Harden has had so far this year I would expect the offense will still run through The Beard. Harden had a “down” game on Wednesday with only 40.9 FD points so I expect a big time bounce back effort here and with all the value on this slate it should be easy to plug Harden into your lineups!

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,600) Shooting Guard is loaded at the top end tonight and I love the idea of paying up for the two biggest stars at the position. Giannis has been on a roll lately, eclipsing 50+ FD points in each of his last two games and although the match-up against a slow-paced team like Miami is not ideal, the Greek Freak is about as match-up proof as they come.

The SG spot gets dicey tonight after Harden/Giannis so I love the idea of locking in two players with 50+ point upside and relatively safe floors to build my lineups around.

FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Small Forwards

Trevor Ariza ($5,300) Ariza continues to deliver solid fantasy totals on a nightly basis as he has eclipsed the 30 FD point mark in each of his last two games and gets to face a Portland team that is 25th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SF’s.

Ariza continues to rack up the peripheral stats as he has at least 3 steals in 5 straight games and is locked into 30+ minutes a night. The Rockets are a team we want to maximize our exposure to tonight in a high scoring close game against Portland and Ariza is a relatively safe cash game play with GPP upside.

Otto Porter ($6,000) This pick is going to depend a bit on injury news as the Wizards will likely be without Bradley Beal again tonight and there is the potential that John Wall is rested or on a minutes restriction as he was on Wednesday. If those two players are out than Porter becomes a must play as he will dominate the usage and we saw on Wednesday the kind of FD output Porter can have when Beal or Wall is out as he put up a 40+ point double-double against the Sixers.

FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Power Forwards and Center

Trey Lyles ($4,000) With Derrick Favors already ruled out of this game, Lyles is expected to step into the starting lineup and should be one of the best value plays on the board! Lyles played 32 minutes last game after Favors exited with injury and put up 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 steals for 30 FD points.

Even with a tough match-up in a pace down game against the Bulls, the guaranteed minutes art this price point allow us to target 6-7x upside at a “punt” play which also allows us to spend up for the big name stars on the slate.

More from FanSided

Ersan Ilyasova ($3,900) Power Forward may be a great spot tonight to employ a double punt strategy as we have some uninspiring options at the top and some easy value options already standing out early in the day. Ilyasova drew the start for the Sixers on Wednesday and with back to back 20 FD point outings we can lock in 5x value at this spot. If you have the salary savings, going up another $200 we can plug-in Dario Saric who responded to his demotion with a 24 FD point double-double as the key leader of the Sixers second unit!

Hassan Whiteside ($8,900) Similar to the Tuesday night slate, we are left with the question of Whiteside or Karl-Anthony Towns when paying up at center and I expect most gamers will be drawn to KAT in a favorable match-up against the Sixers.

On Tuesday night we saw the majority of the ownership (over 25%) go to Towns while Whiteside was just over 11% owned and he responded with a massive 54 FD point outing which gave you a significant edge over the field that chose to go with Towns.

This feels like a similar story as I expect most to pivot to Towns in the more favorable spot but keep in mind that Miami gets to face a Milwaukee team that is 25th in DvP to opposing centers so we could see another 50+ FD point outing here at a fraction of the ownership!

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck tonight and we will see you back here for Friday Night’s NBA Slate!