Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 22 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.5 a night which means we have needed 6.17x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Point Guards
Before we get into this slate, my first reaction to tonight is that we have a ton of question marks and it will be a night where if you cannot monitor the late news, it is probably best to sit out. The biggest question mark to me is the Golden State Warriors who may use Saturday’s game to get their starters some rest.
Per Anthony Slater, “Everyone is available for the Warriors in Boston tonight. A chance they rest some guys in Milwaukee tomorrow. They’ll decide in morning.”
The Warriors have the highest team total and considering the lines were out in Vegas without any news maybe they believe Golden State is at full strength. Until I know for sure I am going to stay silent about the Golden State players but would have massive interest if any of the starters rest which would open up massive usage to the remaining starters.
Kemba Walker ($8,500) The Hornets are in a good spot to target on Saturday night as they have the 5th highest projected point total (105) and see the third highest bump in pace of any team on the slate.
Kemba is averaging over 40 FD points per game and has a top end usage rate of 31.7% on the season running the show for the Hornets. The Pelicans are a neutral match-up as they are 16th in DvP versus opposing PG’s and with most gamers having targeted Kemba at home last night due to his home/road splits, this may be a spot we get Walker at lower than expected ownership.
Isaiah Thomas ($8,300) The Celtics come into tonight’s game against Detroit in what should be a slower paced game but IT2 is in a good spot to exploit the Pistons defense that is 23rd in the league in DvP versus opposing PG’s.
Thomas has a 35.5% usage rate this season which is the second most of any PG on this slate and with Al Horford and Jae Crowder still out due to injuries AND Marcus Smart questionable for Saturday this could be a spot where the entire offense runs through IT2!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Shooting Guards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,600) Although we have many question marks on this slate, the Bucks star is the one player I feel confident locking in early on against Golden State!
The Bucks have the second highest team total (107) on the day which is over 7 points higher than their season average and they see the second highest pace up game of any team on the slate. Add in the fact that Golden State is 26th in the league in DvP against opposing PG’s and the Greek Freak becomes a must play for me in all formats!
Nicolas Batum ($6,700) Heading back to the Hornets, we should lock in Kemba’s back-court teammate as Batum gets one of the best match-ups on the board against a Pelicans team that is 28th in the league in DvP against opposing SG’s.
Batum has put up 40+ FD points in 3 straight games which would exceed 6x value in each spot and makes for an easy plug and play at the SG position on this slate!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Small Forwards
P.J. Tucker ($3,900) Small forward is going to be an injury specific wait and see position on this slate but there are two spots we should look to for sneaky value early in the day.
First, in Phoenix we saw T.J. Warren leave the last game with an illness and Tucker entered the game and played a whopping 39 minutes and put up 23 FD points which is good for 5.9x value at this price point.
The Suns take on a Sixers team that is dead last in DvP to opposing SF’s and would make Tucker one of the best value plays on the board if Warren is ruled out!
Jaylen Brown ($3,500) Marcus Smart left Friday night’s game with an ankle injury and was not able to re-enter the game which could open up the starting spot for Jaylen Brown at minimum price on FanDuel! Earlier this season, Brown got a start against Cleveland and put up 35 FD points so we have seen the upside this promising talent has and would make a great GPP flier if Smart is ruled out!
FanDuel NBA Picks – Top Power Forwards and Center
Jabari Parker ($6,500) Although we have many questions initially on this slate, we should know going in we want to target the Bucks starting five and it just so happens the the two best places to attack Golden State based off DvP are at PG and PF which are ironically the two most talented positions on this starting five!
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Jabari is reasonably priced and has exceeded 40+ FD points in 2 of his last 4 games and should be able to exploit a Golden State team that is 27th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s.
Jared Dudley ($3,800) The Suns/Sixers game should be full of fantasy goodness and with so many cheap options we should be able to find some top end value to plug into our lineups.
Dudley has been playing with the Suns second unit and has exceeded 26 FD points in 4 of his last 5 games which would crush 6x value at this price point and give you significant roster flexibility tonight!
Hassan Whiteside ($9,000) Center is a spot we should look to pay up for on this slate as I am done playing the Kelly Olynyk guessing game and I assume most will continue to ride Joel Embiid as a sexy mid-tier pick.
Whiteside is an absolute monster as he has a double-double in every single game and is averaging 43+ FD points per game this season. Whiteside has 48 FD points in 4 of his last five games and should be able to dominate the Wizards inside on Saturday night!
Next: Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings
Best of luck on Saturday night – stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter as we work to share all the late breaking roster news as it hits throughout the day!