NBA FanDuel Picks and Pivots November 21
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 24 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.9 a night which means we have needed 6.18x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guards
John Wall ($9,200) Wall comes into Monday night with a match-up against a Phoenix Suns team that is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing PG’s on the season. Wall has been getting early season days off for rest and it appears to be keeping him fresh as he is coming off three straight games with 40+ FanDuel points.
Jeff Teague ($6,600) For the second consecutive night, the Pacers head into the slate in the highest projected scoring game(222.5) as they get a home date with the Golden State Warriors one night after taking on Oklahoma City. With the early news that Paul George and C.J. Miles will miss Monday night as well, the Pacers are fantastic value plays again in a high scoring game with a ton of usage up for grabs!
As noted in Sunday’s Picks and Pivots, without George and C.J. Miles on the floor, Teague sees a usage rate of 31.3% which is a massive bump to his season long rate of 26.7% and averages roughly 0.86 FP/M.
Teague had hit 34 FD points in 4 straight games prior to Sunday Night’s contest and put up a monster 58.5 FD point performance on Sunday Night. I expect more of the same on Monday as the Warriors are giving up the 7th most points to opposing PG’s on the season! Fire up Teague again on Monday night!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guards
Tonight may be the night to fade James Harden as he sits $2,000 higher than the next set of stars and allows you a much more balanced lineup while still locking in multiple high-end stars on the slate.
Nicolas Batum ($6,900) The shooting guard position is very interesting on this slate as it would be feasible to pay up for one $9k+ star and pair them with a bargain option but I find my initial roster construction leaning towards the mid-tier where we can seemingly lock in two 30-40 point plays.
Batum has been a steady producer for the Hornets having put up at least 30 FD points in each of his last 5 games and has exceeded 40+ FD points in 3 of those 5. The match-up against Memphis is not one we would normally look to exploit and I expect the price-point may keep him off most players radar so he has some intriguing GPP appeal as an under-owned SG option who has a relatively safe cash game floor!
Dion Waiters ($5,000) It feels like playing with fire, but can we really afford to fade Waiters right now? (Yes I just wrote those words).
Without Justise Winslow on the court the Heat have opted to go small and have utilized Waiters in their starting lineup while getting 34-36 minutes per game in 3 of his last 4. Waiters has put up 32.8 FD points or more in 3 of his last 4 and has eclipsed 6x value in 2 of those 4 games.
The Heat get a chance to take on the Sixers who have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing SG’s and the 2nd most to opposing SF’s so this is a match-up Waiters can easily exploit and he makes for a great GPP pivot with realistic 6x upside!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,900) One of the reasons I am looking at a Harden fade is I believe I can get the same 50 point floor with similar upside for $2k less with KD. Durant has put up 50+ FD points in each of his last two games and sits within the game with the highest projected team total against an up-tempo team in Indiana. If Paul George sits out as expected this match-up becomes essentially a must play for me as Durant should feast on the Pacers in this spot and could end up the night as the highest scoring player at a relative “discount” to The Beard.
The only potential issue in this game is we have significant blow out risk as the Warriors are 12 point favorite with the Pacers undermanned and coming off an overtime game on Sunday night. This should lead to lower than expected ownership in this spot but I would recommend still working in exposure to this game including the best bargain play of the night…
Glenn Robinson III ($3,500) With the news that Paul George will miss the game on Monday as well, Robinson will get another crack at the starting lineup and a chance to follow up on a huge Sunday night!
On Sunday night while starting for George, Robinson exceeded 6x value at this price point by putting up 16 points, 11 rebounds and 30.2 FD points which is nearly 8.6x at this price point! Assuming Robinson gets the nod again, he makes for a great value play although I would expect he will be highly owned after Sunday night’s performance!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forwards and Center
Draymond Green ($8,000) Yes I know I already mentioned the blow out risk in this game but this is a spot I still intend to heavily target. The Warriors and Pacers have 2 of the 3 highest team totals on the slate so there are not any other great pivots to look to and my goal is to try to game-stack my exposure here so that if it stays close I can get maximum exposure to a pace up game for both teams!
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Green has been a great correlation play all season long if you are looking to stack one of the Warriors big scorers as Green’s game is not scoring dependent and he allows you to rack up FanDuel points in various other ways. Green has been a steady 30-40 FD point producer each and every game which builds you a steady floor for cash games but his price may be a bit inflated as he would need 48 FD points to hit 6x which he has only done once this year!
Thaddeus Young ($5,200) Heading back to Indy one last time as we get a chance to lock in Thad Young who is coming off a 20 point, 11 rebound 37.7 FD point performance against OKC on Sunday. The best place to attack Golden State from a defensive perspective this year is at PF as they are 27th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s. The stack is on! Let’s hope the Pacers can keep this one close!
Joel Embiid ($5,700) At some point the price will be too high to continue playing The Process but as long as it remains under $6k this seems like an easy plug and play! At this price point, Embiid need 34 FD points to hit 6x value and he has surpassed that total in four of his last six games including a 38.4 FD point performance in only 20 minutes his last time out!
The ownership is typically high on Embiid but the match-up against Miami may knock that down a bit however the elite FP/M production of The Process is one of the best ways to target high-end talent tonight at the Center position while saving salary for the Warriors high-priced talent!
Next: FanDuel & DraftKings to Merge
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel DFS lineups and stay tuned to our Twitter page throughout the day as we look to bring you all the late breaking news and lineup analysis prior to lock!