Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 28 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Let me start with the biggest question on this slate – are you rostering Russell Westbrook or not? In cash games, on a short slate the answer is yes and you simply move on as there is no other star on this slate who has a higher floor than Mr. Triple Double!
In tournaments however, I am looking to pivot off him and play the terrifying Westbrook fade! The price point at nearly $12k requires 72 FD points to hit 6x value, a number that he just barely hit on Friday night in a game that required overtime. Westbrook is also facing a Detroit team that held this same OKC team to 88 points just two weeks ago and did so without Andre Drummond in the lineup!
In that game, Westbrook still managed 56 FD points so the floor is insanely high but on the tail end of a back to back coming off a OT game, this feels like a spot to move off Westbrook in tournaments and try to differentiate elsewhere!
John Wall ($9,300) If you are moving off Westbrook, the next stop on the point guard tier is John Wall or Stephen Curry. The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate (119) which is 11 points higher than the next closest team but with a 15 point spread against Minnesota the blow out risk is real here.
I expect Westbrook and Curry to garner the majority of the ownership and with a match-up against the Spurs I expect Wall will go completely overlooked! Wall has an insane 37.1% true usage rate which is the second highest of any PG on this slate and is coming off back to back 50+ FD point outings. If we can get a “normal” outing from Westbrook and the blow out happens in Golden State, we can give ourselves a big advantage over the field as Wall takes on the Spurs in a game with only a 5 point spread!
Kemba Walker ($8,500) The interesting thing about this slate is we have two games that were already played on Friday night and will see the back-end of a home & home series take place tonight. The Knicks and Hornets played Friday night so we can easily look at the game logs to target players we want exposure to tonight and my hope is that Kemba is completely overlooked.
I did not roster Kemba on the road Friday night, but with his return back home this is a spot we should fire up Walker in all formats! Walker’s production increases across each statistical category when he is at home and we have seen him shoot over 50% from the floor in home games so far this season. This is a game I intend to get heavy exposure to on this slate as the Hornets have the second highest team total and with a 6.5 spread we should see the starters get their full complement of minutes!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Nicolas Batum ($6,200) Shooting guards against the Knicks. Do it. The Knicks are 29th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s and Batum just dropped 42.3 FanDuel points on Friday night which is 6.3x value at this price point.
Batum’s ability to contribute across the board was on display Friday night as he racked up 18 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists and with a match-up against one of the worst SG defenses in the league, Batum is a lock and load play in all formats on this slate!
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100) KCP has hit 6x value in three straight games and the Pistons see one of the biggest pace boosts of any team on the slate with their match-up against OKC.
In their previous match-up, KCP put up 25.6 FanDuel points against the Thunder with a well-rounded statistical performance and his 5x cash game floor makes him a solid play at this price point. The $5-$6k range at shooting guard is loaded with options like Bradley Beal, Zach Lavine, Klay Thompson and Victor Oladipo so the ownership should be largely spread out on this slate but I expect most will pay up for the aforementioned names and leave KCP under owned!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Kawhi Leonard ($8,600) Attacking the Wizards on the wing has been a profitable strategy all season long and with their 23rd ranked DvP against opposing SF’s this is a great spot to target Kawhi on this slate.
Leonard has put up 40+ FD points in four straight games and the price point is reasonable enough that he can fit in easily in any roster construction. Kawhi is one of the safest cash game plays on the slate and an elite foundation piece to build around he should be able to easily hit 40-50 FanDuel points on this slate!
Carmelo Anthony ($7,600) Do not look now but Carmelo is officially hitting his stride as the Knicks have started to put together a nice run! Melo is coming off his best game of the year on Friday night with 35 points and 14 boards for 63.3 FanDuel points against the same Hornets team he faces Saturday night.
This is not a spot you necessarily want to chase the points, but I view this as more of a correlation play as you can stack the Hornets back court with Melo for an intriguing game stack in one of the highest scoring games on the evening!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Frank Kaminsky ($4,600) The front court is full of value on this slate and I recommend utilizing the top value plays on the board so you can pay up at PG and SF in your roster construction!
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Marvin Williams was injured on Friday night and is likely to miss Saturday’s game which should thrust Frank the Tank into the starting lineup on Saturday night. Kaminsky is averaging 27.9 FD points over his last 6 games which exceeds 6x value at this price point and is coming off a Friday night against the Knicks where he played 40 minutes! Lock in Frank on this slate and use the salary savings elsewhere to pay up for the studs!
Markieff Morris ($4,800) It was not long ago that Morris was routinely priced over $6k but a series of disappointing games and a sprained ankle have pushed his price to a point where we almost have to roster him.
Markieff is locked in as a starter for the Wizards, playing 30+ minutes and is one of the focal points of the offensive attack. The match-up against the Spurs will keep the ownership deflated and Morris has the offensive ability to take down a GPP on any given night. All aboard the GPP Markieff train!
Steven Adams ($4,800) Centers against Detroit is another DvP spot we look to attack each night out as the Pistons are 23rd in DvP against opposing centers! Adams is locked into starters minutes and should be able to replicate the double-digit boards he pulled down against this Pistons team just two weeks ago!
Next: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings
Best of luck on Saturday Night in NBA FanDuel – keep up to date with all the latest lineup news throughout the day with Fantasy CPR on Twitter as we look to keep your DFS lineups ready prior to lock!