NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 27
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 29 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Elfrid Payton ($5,800) The Sunday night slate sets up nicely for DFS players with a reasonable six game slate and with multiple stars to pay up for the roster construction should really be differentiated across the field.
Point guard is a great spot to pivot down to the mid-tier as the top end options as I believe the salary is best used elsewhere (more on that later). Payton and the Magic take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a rematch of a game played just six days ago where Payton put up 34.3 FanDuel points on the back of 8 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists.
This kind of all-around game is exactly why we want to target Payton in DFS as he has the ability to rack up non-scoring stats and deliver big time fantasy days for our rosters. The price point is reasonable and the slow-paced Magic are actually projected to score 4 points more than their season average today so this is a great spot to get exposure to a game most will overlook!
Dennis Schroder ($5,300) The Hawks-Lakers game is a sneaky one to target on this slate as these two teams are projected to have the highest paces of any teams on the slate and combined with a 3 point spread, this should be a close up-tempo game to load up on!
Schroder has been a disappointment this year but if there was ever a spot for a big game, a match-up with the “defense” of Jose Calderon is the one to target! With D’Angelo Russell out due to injury, Calderon started the last two games at point guard and was predictably abused by Stephen Curry. The Lakers are 15th in DvP to opposing PG’s this season but that has been driven by the presence of Russell so with Calderon at the point in this game, Schroder has a chance to crush value in GPP’s!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($11,400) If you are wondering which top star to pay up for, allow me to recommend Mr. James Harden for your NBA FanDuel rosters today. The Rockets are the highest projected scoring team on the slate (112.8) which is 4 points higher than their season average and they see one of the biggest increases in pace of any team in action. This game against Portland has by far the highest projected combined team total (223) and with a 3 point spread this is a game we will have to have exposure to!
These two teams have already matched up once this season and Harden went bonkers for 26 points, 14 assists and 12 rebounds which was good for 63.4 FanDuel points. With Anthony Davis priced $500 higher and in a game against Dallas that sees the biggest pace decrease of any team on the slate, Harden is the clear-cut star to pay up for on this slate!
Jordan Clarkson ($5,000) The injury to D’Angelo Russell has opened up opportunity across the Lakers back-court with Clarkson one of the biggest beneficiaries. Clarkson entered the starting lineup on the Lakers last game and became the primary play-maker for the Laker offense while playing 38 minutes and notching 29.4 FanDuel points.
This Lakers-Hawks game is going to be fast paced and if it stays close as Vegas projects, we should utilize this spot as one of the best value targets to help us pay up elsewhere.
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Glenn Robinson III ($3,800) With Paul George already ruled out, Robinson will once again get the starting nod at SF for the Pacers and unlocks a world of roster possibilities due to his deflated price point.
Robinson started for Indiana last game out and played a whopping 40 minutes, scoring 20 points and pulling down 6 rebounds for 31.2 FanDuel points which exceeds 8x value at this price point. The match-up here against the Clippers is not a favorable one and that may actually keep the ownership down but anytime I can lock in a starting player with this kind of DFS upside at a bargain price it becomes a must play and allows you the ability to easily fit in Harden (and others).
Maurice Harkless ($4,900) From a DFS perspective, one of the best places to attack the Houston Rockets is at SF as they are 23rd in DvP to opposing wings this season. Harkless has been phenomenal as of late with back to back 30+ FD point outing (6x value) and is coming off one of his best games of the year with a 19 point, 11 rebound outing against New Orleans!
Harkless is a great way to get cheap exposure to the highest scoring game of the night and combined with Robinson we are looking at two bargain options that are delivering the target 6x value we want in GPP’s!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Paul Millsap ($7,800) Millsap is one of my favorite DFS PF targets as he goes mostly overlooked in GPP’s and the price point here may lead to him being largely ignored. The PF spot is loaded at the top with Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin, then you have Millsap sitting just below $8k and the next tier all sits at $6.6k and lower. I expect most will either look to pay up for AD/Griffin or drop down to the value tiers which leads me back to Millsap!
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The Lakers are going to likely be without Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. is also nursing an injury which could allow Millsap the opportunity to absolutely eat inside against a Lakers team that is 19th in DvP to opposing PF’s this season. The Hawks-Lakers is a great mini-game stack that allows you to load up on reasonably priced players in a high tempo game while allocating salary to some other big name stars!
Trevor Booker ($5,600) The Nets-Kings game is one we have not yet touched on but with the second highest combined team total (217) and with a 4 point spread, we should look to ensure our rosters have exposure to this game. The Nets are banged up across the board but Booker continues to be a steady contributor for Brooklyn as evidenced by his back to back double-doubles.
Booker has put up 31.5 and 41.9 FanDuel points over his last two games and gets to face a Kings team that is 27th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s!
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,400) Boogie against the Nets. Yes, Please! Although Harden is a must play for me in all formats, locking in Cousins against the hapless Nets defense is a must for me in tournament play!
The Nets are dead last in DvP as a team this season and the Kings see the second highest pace increase on this slate. The Nets do not have anyone who can contain Boogie and considering Cousins has eclipsed 50+ FanDuel points in 5 of his last 6 games seems massively under priced for this spot!
Next: Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings
Enjoy your Sunday of NFL football and a great NBA Main Slate – keep an eye out on Fantasy CPR twitter for all the latest lineup news and roster announcements!