NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 29
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 30 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 371.2 a night which means we have needed 6.19x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
George Hill ($6,800) Hill has returned from injury and has picked up right where he left off, in the midst of a career year! The Jazz get a sneaky match-up against Houston and are expected to see an uptick in offensive output and in pace which makes them one of my favorite teams to target on this slate.
Hill has come back from injury and posted games of 34.5, 34.5 and 37.6 FanDuel points which exceeds 5x value at this depressed price point. Perhaps the best sign from Monday’s game was that Hill played 34 minutes which was his first game crossing the 30 minute mark since he returned from injury. On a night where we are going to want to pay up for stars, Hill is a great value play with 5-6x upside for all formats!
Tim Frazier ($5,100) The Pelicans may be the top team to target on this slate as they are projected to score the second highest team total (111) which is 7 points higher than their season average while getting the second highest pace bump of any team on the slate.
The match-up with the Lakers is a favorable one as they rank 2nd to last in the NBA in fantasy points allowed as a team and are 26th in DvP to opposing PG’s. Even with the return of Jrue Holiday, Frazier continues to get 30+ minutes each night and on a night where the top end PG’s may be over priced relative to their match-up, Frazier is a great way to save salary while getting guaranteed minutes in an elite spot!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($5,500) It is not often I will recommend a Jazz game stack but on a short slate with multiple stars I feel are must plays, the Jazz represent some of the best value in their game with Houston.
Hood has one of his best games of the season just two weeks ago against this same Houston team when he put up 33.3 FanDuel points on the back of 25 points scored. Hood has struggled badly since that game, as he has not eclipsed 23 FD points since so this is a spot best suited for GPP play. If you are looking for a pivot, Sean Kilpatrick ($5,300) sits just below hood and should continue to get major run for the Nets and has exceeded 32 FD points in 2 of his last 3 games. The match-up with the Clippers is not ideal but the usage should be enough to make up for the tough DvP spot!
Jordan Clarkson ($5,200) The Lakers side of this Pelicans showdown may be a bit tougher to peg down with so many injuries piling up for LA but shooting guard is the best position to get exposure to this side of the game.
With D’Angelo Russell out, Clarkson is seeing an uptick in production and has put up 34 FD points in two of his last four games. The Pelicans are ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing SG’s so this is a spot that Clarkson and the Lakers should be able to exploit in a high scoring match-up that Vegas anticipates will be close (5 point spread).
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James ($10,100) The small forward position is brutal on this slate as the mid-range options feel over-priced and some of the second tier options (ie. Kawhi Leonard) are in match-ups that do not correspond well with their price and our roster construction.
LeBron has the ability at this position on this slate to legit outperform the next highest scoring SF by 20 points and although the price point is high, it is still a relative discount to Anthony Davis/James Harden.
The Cavs have the third highest projected team total on the slate and with a 6.5 point spread against the Bucks, this is a game we can expect LBJ to get major minutes in as he looks like a lock to put up another 50 point fantasy performance.
Brandon Ingram ($3,800) The Lakers talented rookie continues to get major run for LA having played over 29 minutes in three straight games. Ingram is flirting with a double-double each night putting up 7.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game in his last two contests. Ingram has put up double-digit shot attempts but the inefficiency from a FG% perspective(37% this season) has capped his scoring upside even with the increased attempts. If Ingram can see even a slight uptick in his FG% his upside is immense in an elite match-up against a Pelicans team that has struggled all year to defend wing players.
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($12,000) The price point is at a season high and keep in mind he would need 72 FD points to hit 6x value, but with a short slate this may not be a spot where we can afford to fade The Brow.
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The Pelicans have one of the highest team totals, they see a significant pace uptick and the Lakers are 23rd in the NBA in DVP to opposing PF’s which sets Davis up for a monster night. Davis has up 60+ FanDuel points in 4 of his last 6 games so this is a spot where we can lock in the 5x from Davis and look to differentiate from a GPP perspective at other positions.
Frank Kaminsky ($4,700) Kaminsky is one of the safest plays on the board as he has hit 5x value in eight straight games! With Marvin Williams out with an injury, Kaminsky is locked in as the starting PF for the Hornets and is playing 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. If you are looking to pay up for LeBron and AD tonight, Kaminsky is a great salary saver with a safe 5x floor and 6x upside due to his increased run as a starter!
Rudy Gobert ($6,800) One last member of the Jazz I promise! Gobert has eclipsed the 40 FD point mark in two of his last five games including the last outing against the Rockets in which he put up 12 points, 14 rebounds and 40.3 FD points (5.9x value). The center position is a spot we can pay down at tonight and still capture elite upside and Gobert is one of my favorite plays on this slate!
Next: NBA DFS Lessons Learned from Last Week
Keep an eye out on Fantasy CPR Twitter throughout the day for late breaking news and roster updates as we head towards NBA FanDuel lock! See you back here on Wednesday and best of luck in NBA DFS tonight!