Reds Billy Hamilton: Can He Repeat Breakout Season in 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Nov 29, 2016

Aug 7, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton (6) attempts to steal second base against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Reds won 7-3.Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Billy Hamilton had a career season for the Reds in 2016. But, can fantasy owners believe in him to repeat his success next season?

The fastest man in baseball, is also one of the most difficult to project. Armed with one of the most dangerous skill sets in the game, fantasy owners have waited patiently for him to put it altogether. Well it seems as though fantasy owners got a glimpse of what he could really do once he puts it altogether, as his 2016 season was his best campaign with the Reds.

Hamilton finished the 2016 season with a .260/3 HR/17 RBI/58 SB/69 R/.664 OPS line. Now the counting stats are not the prettiest, as he hit leadoff for a majority of the season, and the Reds lacks lineup depth at the bottom of their lineup. But, the .260 AVG and his 7.8% BB rate were career highs.

When drafting Hamilton, it is clear what he brings to the table. Game breaking speed. After being caught stealing 23 times in 2014, his efficiency on the base paths is downright ridiculous. He has attempted 141 SB the last two seasons, yet has only been thrown out 16 times.

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Keep in mind theses totals are also abbreviated thanks to nagging injuries, he has not played in over 120 games the last two seasons, but it is clear how elite his speed plays. But, as good as the SB production is, can fantasy owners stomach him if he is only a one trick pony?

The first answer to that, is decided in whether or not fantasy owners believe in his .260 AVG. This is still a relatively low clip, but it is a huge boost over the .226 and .250 clips from the two years prior. But, can he sustain it?

By looking at his batted ball data, there are some things that are encouraging. For one, a .329 BABIP is more in line to what a speedster should be posting, thanks to their ability to beat out infield singles. This BABIP uptick, is tied to the 5% increase in his GB rate. Hamilton finally hit more GB this season, and the results were immediate.

He maintained a near 83% Contact rate, but by simply raising his GB rate by 5%, and dropping his FB rate by 7.3%, an AVG jump was inevitable. Hamilton also posted a 22% LD rate, and was still able to maintain a 58%+ Med contact rate, so he is still squaring his fair share of balls up. He hit the ball with the same type of force, but instead of flying out where he could not take advantage of his speed, he beat the ball more into the ground.

Heading into next season, owners will have to expect some regression in those batted ball categories, because he simply has not done it before in his career. That does not mean he will come crashing immediately back to Earth, but owners still have to mitigate the risk.

In terms of his power, it does not exist, but that would simply be a bonus to begin with. It is too early to know how the Reds’ lineup will look in 2017, but Hamilton will need some help at the bottom of the lineup to help his counting stats.

The Reds will bank on him being a catalyst atop the order once again in 2017, and next season will serve as a good indicator in determining if Hamilton will start to become a consistent yearly threat. He battled a knee and oblique injury last season, but owners know that his playing style does not bode well for staying healthy.

Billy Hamilton improved last season, showing owners a glimpse of the impact he can have if keep his BB rate respectable, and keeps the ball on the ground. He has all the talent in the world, and his 50+ SB potential is nearly impossible to find any more.

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Target him in the middle rounds, and try to surround him with some high AVG players to offset the possible AVG dip. Fantasy wise, he is still can single-handedly win owners matchups, which makes him still a fantasy dynamo.

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