NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 3
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 34 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.2 a night which means we have needed 6.21x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eight games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Kemba Walker ($8,300) The point guard position is loaded on this slate but Kemba Walker playing at home against Minnesota may be the best pick of the bunch. The Hornets have the 4th highest team total on this slate and Minnesota is 23rd in the league in DvP against opposing PG’s.
In this same match-up earlier this season, Kemba racked up 30 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals for 53 FanDuel points. Walker has struggled of late as the Hornets have played 5 games in 7 days so I expect the recency bias to be strong here and most will overlook Kemba but this is a great spot for a player who averages 39.5 FanDuel points per game at home which i 4 points higher than his average on the road.
Andrew Harrison ($4,300) This is the third straight time I have recommended the Grizzlies new starting point guard but as long as he keeps producing at these bargain price points, I see no reason to get cute! Harrison has stepped in due to the injury to Mike Conley and has put up 30.6 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 7x value at this price point.
Memphis is not a team we typically target but in a game against the Lakers they see the third highest pace bump and are expected to score more than 5 points their season average which considering their injury situation makes that even more impressive!
The Lakers are 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s and Harrison continues to be an elite value play that unlocks big time roster construction possibilities due to his depressed price point. Simply click the lock button next to Harrison and roster a player that is guaranteed major minutes in an elite match-up and watch as he puts up 6x+ value again tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Will Barton ($4,800) The shooting guard position is a great spot for value tonight and Barton represents perhaps one of the highest upside value plays on the slate. Barton returned from injury on Friday night and immediately stepped back into a major offensive role for the Nuggets.
Barton played 33 minutes, scored 17 points and racked up 7 rebounds and 5 assists for 32.9 FanDuel points which exceeds 6.8x value at this price point. Barton is simply priced too low considering his role as an offensive play-maker on Denver and I will look to get exposure here before FanDuel adjusts it!
Wesley Matthews ($4,800) When looking for value plays in NBA FanDuel, you want to target players with guaranteed minutes who have a significant role and usage in the offense. Matthews plays 30+ minutes a night and has double-digit shot attempts in 8 of his last 9 games as one of the primary play-makers for a depleted Dallas team.
Matthews has hit 6x value in 3 of his last 6 games and with Dirk Nowitzki out with an injury, Matthews sees an uptick in his usage and fantasy production. Matthews is a pure volume play but consider he has attempted 11 3-point attempts in each of his last two games and if he can find his stroke, the upside here is immense for GPP play!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($8,800) Butler is simply under-priced for a player who has put up 50+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games. With Dwayne Wade already ruled out for tonight’s game, Butler should be the prime beneficiary as he will see a 4.1% usage spike bringing his true usage to a massive 35.3% with Wade off the floor while averaging 1.26 FanDuel points per minute.
This is expected to be a significant pace down game for Chicago against Dallas but that also comes with a 4 points Vegas spread which means Butler should get major run tonight. I expect many players will go back to Rajon Rondo after his fifty burger on Friday night but Rondo actually sees his usage and production drop with Wade off the floor so Butler becomes my top play from the Bulls on this slate.
Gordon Hayward ($7,900) Similar to the Jimmy Butler situation, Hayward becomes one of the last men standing for the Jazz as Rodney Hood as already been ruled out and George Hill is doubtful for Saturday against the Nuggets.
Without Hill, Hood and Derrick Favors the Jazz become the Gordon Hayward show as evidenced by his last game out where he dropped a fifty spot against the Heat. Hayward has put up 50.1 and 47.5 FanDuel points in his last two games and the Jazz get a match-up with a Nuggets team that will see them get an uptick in pace and projected points scored.
Hayward and Butler will both be forced to carry the load for their respective teams and you could be looking at two 50+ FanDuel point performances without having to spend over $9k for either player. This is a combination I will be rolling out in every single format tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Draymond Green ($8,000) The Warriors have by far the highest projected team total (123) and see the biggest increase in pace on the slate as they take on the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night. The issue with this game is we have a 16.5 point spread and with the inflated price points for the Warriors, there is risk with paying their freight and then watching a blow out where they sit on the bench.
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These two teams have matched up already this season and the player averages for the big three are as follows:
- Kevin Durant – 51.5 FanDuel points/game
- Stephen Curry – 39.9 FanDuel points/game
- Draymond Green – 42 FanDuel points/game
I can understand paying up for Kevin Durant most nights but from a point per dollar perspective, Draymond is actually the best play here as he has put up 5.25x value in this match-up so far this year. With Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward at cheaper price points at SF and with similar 50+ point upside, I will look to get my exposure to this game with Green. The Suns are 24th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s and I expect Draymond to put up a big time performance at only $8k on FanDuel.
Nikola Mirotic ($4,200) With Dwayne Wade already ruled out, expect Mirotic to step into the starting lineup for Chicago and immediately surfaces as one of the best value plays on the board. In his last start for the Bulls, Mirotic put up a double-double and 35 FanDuel points against the Lakers and he makes for a top end value play with clear 6x upside that allows you to pay up across the rest of your roster.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,600) Whiteside is in a terrific spot tonight as he gets a match-up against a Portland team that has struggled all year to defend big men as evidenced by their 30th ranking in DvP to opposing PF and 23rd ranking against centers.
Portland does not have anyone who can stop Whiteside and a 20/20 game is absolutely in play here. Whiteside averaged 21 points and 12 rebounds against Portland last season and put up 46.4 FanDuel points per contest which speaks to the immense upside he has in this spot!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter as we share all the late breaking lineup and roster news prior to lock! Good luck tonight!