NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 4
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 35 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.2 a night which means we have needed 6.22x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,600) On a short slate like we have on Sunday, I will almost always look towards a stars/scrubs roster construction and this slate is no different. The rationale is relatively simple, if a player like Westbrook puts up his expected 65-70 FanDuel points, it is going to be nearly impossible to cash out if the majority of the field has the highest scoring player and you do not.
OKC is the highest projected scoring team on the slate seeing an uptick in points versus their season average and a slight uptick in pace against New Orleans. The Pelicans are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing players on this slate and with Westbrook seemingly a lock for a triple-double each night, I am starting every roster with him and working on value plays elsewhere. Just lock in Westbrook tonight unless you are playing a multi-entry GPP and want to play a fade entry for fun(or misery).
Ish Smith ($5,700) Has Ish Smith finally started to turn the corner from a fantasy basketball perspective? Ish is coming off two of his best games of the season as he has racked up 37.5 and 42.6 FanDuel points over his last two games, a 40 point average and 7x value at this price point! The best place to attack the Pistons is at PG as they are 20th in DvP to opposing PG’s so this is a spot where Ish should continue to his recent elite run of performance and help us target big time GPP upside at a reasonable price point.
UPDATE: Reggie Jackson will play and START for the Pistons and is expected to play 18-20 minutes which certainly hurts Ish Smith. Smith is still a solid GPP play as I expect most will jump off him with this news. If you are looking for a pivot, Darren Collison sits at the same price point ($5,700) and is locked into 30 minutes in a positive match-up against the “defense” of Derrick Rose!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Justin Holiday ($4,100) This pick is contingent on Courtney Lee being out again and with him being questionable, the likelihood that Holiday gets another start for the Knicks is high. Holiday stepped into the starting lineup last game and played 31 minutes and racked up 28.4 FanDuel points which is 6.9x value at this price point.
The Knicks-Kings game has the second highest combined team total on the slate and with a 2.5 Vegas spread this should be a game where the starters get a full complement of minutes. If Lee is out again, Holiday is going to be one of the best value plays on the board against a Kings team that is 24th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,700) For those who have played DFS for a while now, KCP has always been that guy you roster and say, well he plays a lot of minutes and so hopefully he can get me some points. I never thought I would recommend KCP at this price point but his recent production absolutely warrants it!
KCP has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 7 games which (gasp) actually makes him a relatively safe cash game play and has exceeded 6x value in each of his last three games. The Pistons are expected to score roughly 3 points more than their season average today against the Magic so this is a spot for some sneaky value to build around the stars today!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Jeff Green ($3,700) To be clear, small forward looks ugly on this slate and is the spot I am fully looking to punt at so I can pay up elsewhere. This will be the spot I mix and match punt options across my various lineups around the core plays I outline in this article so keep an eye on the news as it breaks today as more value may open up here!
Green finally looks like he is coming out of his season long struggles as he had one of his best games last time out against Philly when he put up 25.7 FanDuel points in only 23 minutes. Green is a lock for 25 minutes a game off the Magic bench and his ability to contribute across the board gives him the kind of upside we typically want in GPP’s.
Andre Roberson ($4,000) Roberson is the new KCP for DFS players as he is simply a punt option we can count on for 30 minutes a night and we just hope he runs into fantasy production. A ringing endorsement right?
Roberson is a lock for 30 minutes a night on the highest projected scoring team on the slate and has hit 5x value in 3 of his last 5 games. As far as punt plays go, Roberson is one of the safest due to his high minutes on a nightly basis!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500) After reading through the SG and SF picks I am sure you are wondering, where does this guy intend to spend his salary? Well this slide will finally show you where I am looking to pay up around Westbrook tonight!
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The Knicks-Kings game is a spot I want significant exposure to and Porzingis gets one of the best match-ups as the Kings are 28th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s. KP has eclipsed 40+ FanDuel points in 2 of his last 3 games and should be an absolute match-up nightmare for a Kings team that will have no answers for him on the defensive end.
Tobias Harris ($5,800) Harris has quickly become one of my favorite DFS plays at PF as he just flat out delivers each night. Tobias has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in each of his last four games, hitting cash game 5x value in each of those contests and eclipsing 6x value for GPP play in two of those four!
Harris has faced Orlando one already this season and delivered 29.8 FanDuel points so I feel confident locking him in for 30 points as a solid cash game foundation that allows you to build around the high-priced stars on this slate.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900) If you read this column often you will know I am a Boogie lover and will continue to lock him in as long as his price sits below $11k. Cousins gets a match-up against a Knicks team that may again be without Joakim Noah which gave up 75 FanDuel points to Karl-Anthony Towns in a similar spot earlier this week.
Cousins has a massive usage rate (36%) and one only needs to look at his shot attempts in his recent game logs to understand how that translates into real life performance – 26, 34, 22, 22, 28. The offensive simply runs through Boogie and I am locking him in tonight in a high scoring game against the Knicks that may be undermanned up front and allow Boogie to EAT!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter as we share the late breaking roster news to help you finalize your rosters before lock!