NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 7
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 38 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.2 a night which means we have needed 6.22x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with ten games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Stephen Curry ($9,100) After an ugly Tuesday night (well for those of us who didn’t play John Wall anyways) we are back with a loaded Wednesday night slate with a ton of action with high Vegas totals!
The best NBA game of the night can be found in LA as the Clippers and Warriors square off in a game with the highest combined team total and a close 4 point spread. This is a game we are going to need exposure to but the question is where? The top priced stars, Curry, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are all priced over $9k so there may not be a ton of GPP upside in this inflated price points.
I expect many will look to chase Klay Thompson‘s points but I will look towards his back-court mate tonight who averaged just under 50 FanDuel points per game against the Clippers last year. The Warriors have the second highest team total on the slate so I want to make sure I have exposure here but will stop short of any stacking as the Warriors actually are expected to score 7 points less than their season average and see a pace down against a tough Clippers defense.
If you are entering multiple lineups, you can easily pivot to Chris Paul ($9,100) as the Clippers see one of the biggest pace bumps on the slate and the Warriors are ranked 20th in DvP to opposing PG’s on the season.
Jeff Teague ($7,000) No team sees a bigger pace increase on this slate than the Pacers as they are projected to score the 5th highest point total in an up-tempo game against the Suns.
Whenever we see a pace up game, I want to target the point guards who have the ball in their hands and Teague gets one of the best match-ups on the board. The Suns are 26th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s and in this same match-up earlier this season Teague racked up 21 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 35 FanDuel points. Teague’s price point is perfect for cash games and the match-up has GPP upside so you can confidently target Teague in all formats tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Will Barton ($6,000) Perhaps my favorite game of the night to target is in Brooklyn as the Nuggets and Nets lock up in a game with the second highest combined team total on the slate. Targeting players against the Nets has been a profitable strategy all season long as they give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams this season.
Barton has seen his price increase to $6k since he returned from injury but the production has been elite each night he has stepped on the floor. Barton is playing major minutes, 33+ in each of his last three games and has put up 32+ FanDuel points in each of those contests including a 40 point outing his last time out.
The Nets are 28th in DvP to opposing SG’s and Barton has the ability to take down a GPP with his scoring upside at this reasonable price!
Jamal Crawford ($3,800) Heading back to LA, I have been toying with different ways to get exposure to the Clippers and perhaps the best way to do that is to attack their biggest weakness – defending shooting guards.
The Warriors are 25th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SG’s and this is a spot where the high volume scoring of Crawford off the bench could be in for a big night. Crawford has played 26+ minutes in ten of his last eleven games and will be the primary scoring option on the Clippers second unit. Crawford only needs 22.8 FanDuel points to hit 6x value, a mark he has eclipsed in three of his last seven games and is a great punt option that gives us exposure to this top end match-up.
UPDATE: Kent Bazemore has been ruled OUT for the next two games and Tim Hardaway Jr. ($3,800) has been confirmed as the starter. Hardaway is a great GPP play due to his scoring upside and makes for a great bargain option tonight as a pivot off Crawford.
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($8,300) Heading back to Indiana, this is a great spot to target an under priced Paul George who gets an elite match-up with a Suns team that is 27th in DvP to opposing SF’s.
On a slate like this, I want to target as many players in the $7-$8k range who I believe have 50 point upside that could compete from a pure point perspective with the higher priced stars and I believe PG-13 is one of the best ways to do that. This price point feels very similar to Jimmy Butler just a week ago where he crushed value until FanDuel was forced to respond! George has played 30+ minutes in both games since returning and is coming off a double-double in his last contest. Fire him up tonight against the Suns!
Danilo Gallinari ($6,000) Another great spot to get Nuggets exposure is at SF as Gallo is very fairly priced in the mid-range and has massive upside at this price!
The Nets are 27th in DvP to opposing SF’s and with Gallo locked into 30+ minutes a night, he is in a prime spot to crush value. Gallo is coming off one of his best games of the season in his last outing where he put up 24 points and 37.3 FanDuel points (6x value) against Philadelphia.
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Tonias Harris ($5,600) Tobias just continues to deliver each night for me and I will continue to roll him out for as long as his price point stays under $6k. Harris put up another 30+ FanDuel point outing last night, which gives him that mark in five of his last six games.
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Harris gets a favorable match-up against the Hornets who he faced just a few days ago and put up 39.4 FanDuel points. If we can continue to get 6x-7x from Harris at this price point, we need to simply lock him into our rosters and move on!
Kenneth Faried ($5,300) One more add to the Nuggets stack and this one is the most volatile! With Nikola Jokic out with an injury, Faried will continue to start for the Nuggets and this is an ideal match-up for his skillset.
The Nuggets see the second highest pace increase on the slate and face a Nets team that is 29th in DvP to opposing PF’s. Faried is a GPP play due to his volatility (only 13 minutes in his last game) but the upside here is elite in this match-up and I will look to get exposure to him as part of a Nuggets stack!
Hassan Whiteside ($8,900) Similar to my take on Paul George, I am looking to find players in the $7-$8k price range that have 50 points upside and Whiteside fits that bill each and every night.
Whiteside has a double-double in all but one game this season and faced an Atlanta team he dropped 54 FanDuel points on earlier this season. Whiteside is a near lock each night for a 50 burger and at this price point, he becomes a must play for me on this slate!
Good luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter for all the late breaking news and roster alerts!