MLS Cup final: The big preview
MLS will have a first-time champion for the second time in the last five seasons as Toronto FC host the Seattle Sounders at BMO Field in the 2016 MLS Cup final on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, FOX and UniMas).
The two clubs took decidedly different paths to the final. The Sounders had a horrendous first half of the season in the Western Conference; it looked at times as if just making the playoffs was out of the question. Toronto, on the other hand, were among the top three clubs in the Eastern Conference for much of the year and cruised into the postseason.
In our preview, we look back at both club’s regular seasons and playoff runs, and ahead at the players who are most likely to decide what will, one way or another, be an historic final.
The regular season
Seattle stumble
Seattle began the 2016 MLS season with three consecutive losses, and managed only six wins in their first 21 games. In that same stretch, they were shut out six times, and were languishing in ninth place in the West heading into August.
Clint Dempsey was unable to transfer the connection he had cultivated with Obafemi Martins over the previous couple of seasons to Jordan Morris, or any other teammate for that matter. The Sounders saw their shot conversion percentage drop from 16.2 in 2015 to 9.8 through the first 10 games of 2016.
Some in Seattle remained hopeful, tapping the return of Erik Friberg from injury as a potential turning point. Others felt Seattle’s season was beyond saving. Both were incorrect.
The Sounders did turn things around, but not in the way anyone expected. There were two obvious catalysts for their eventual about-face: head coach Sigi Schmid was let go and replaced on a temporary basis by assistant Brian Schmetzer on July 26; two days later, the club announced the signing of Nicolas Lodeiro from Boca Juniors.
The Sounders were a team transformed. Lodeiro made an immediate impact, compiling the most touches of any player and creating multiple scoring chances in Seattle’s 1-1 draw with the LA Galaxy on July 31. They won their next three games, as Dempsey rediscovered his scoring touch and Morris grew into his role.
But just as things were looking up, disaster struck: Dempsey was sidelined indefinitely with an irregular heartbeat four days after a 3-1 win over the Timbers. Seattle lost their first game without Deuce 4-2 (also to the Timbers) and doubt began to creep back into the minds of their supporters.
But lo! A six game unbeaten streak came to pass, including four consecutive wins. A second-half equalizer from Lodeiro in Seattle’s first game of the streak may have saved the season, while Morris continued to shine in Dempsey’s absence.
And yet, such was the dramatic nature of Seattle’s season, after a loss in the penultimate match of the season to San Jose, they still needed a result against Real Salt Lake on MLS Decision Day. The Sounders won 2-1.
Toronto cruise
2016 was the year Toronto FC finally became the team their rabid supporters had been wishing for since they joined the league a decade ago, and especially since the signings of Sebastian Giovinco and Jozy Altidore in 2015.
After a decent first half of the season, Toronto went on a seven match unbeaten streak (including six wins), beginning on July 23 with a 4-1 shellacking of DC United that saw Giovinco end an eight game goalless run with a hat-trick and ending Aug. 27 with a 1-0 loss against Montreal.
During this run — which, again, lasted seven games — Gio scored eight goals and assisted six more. (And, sidebar, yes, in case you were wondering, they really did give the 2016 Landon Donovan MLS MVP award to David Villa. Sure, Villa’s 23 goals and four assists are good — great actually — as is a second-place finish in the East, but, come on guys. Really?)
Altidore added five goals of his own during this stretch, and added five more by the end of the season. In fact, those 10 goals were the only ones he scored all regular season. Talk about finding your form at the right time.
TFC ended in third place in the East, one point shy of second-place New York City FC. The Toronto faithful were confident of a good showing in the playoffs; their club wouldn’t disappoint.
The playoffs
Valdez emerges as unlikely hero for Seattle
Nelson Valdez, to put it kindly, had a bad 2016 MLS season. A veteran of two World Cups for Paraguay, and with stints in the Bundesliga and La Liga, Valdez was seen as a marquee signing for the Sounders in 2015. There was just one problem: the striker didn’t score any goals. Like, ever. Naturally, with a huge contract comes huge expectations.
Sounders fans and the press were convinced the big signing wasn’t living up to the hype. Matt Pentz of the Seattle Times had this to say at the end of June: “Valdez is not producing at a level that justifies his Designated Player contract — $1.45 million this season, per the players’ union salary release, in a league whose minimum still hovers around $60,000.”
But this is a story of redemption.
The Sounders began the 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs on Oct. 27 at home against Sporting KC. Well, their defense did at least. The offense couldn’t manage a single shot on goal. That is until two minutes before the end of regulation, when Nelson Valdez guided a header past the SKC keeper and sent Seattle through to the Western Conference semis. No one saw it coming. Not even, it appeared, Valdez himself.
The game was notable for reasons besides the reemergence of Valdez, like the fact every big call seemed to go in Seattle’s favor. Two close offside decisions went against SKC — one took away a Sporting goal; the other didn’t take away the very offside-looking Valdez game-winner.
On top of that, Benny Feilhaber was on the business end of a rash tackle from Osvaldo Alonso. The Sounders man was already on a yellow, but didn’t receive a second. All of which led to Feilhaber, who has never been shy about sharing his opinion, giving the world’s most sarcastic post-game interview.
But the Sounders moved on, and their much-maligned forward continued to make an impact. Valdez scored against FC Dallas in the first semifinal leg that saw Seattle build a dominating 3-0 lead. It was a win that prompted Seattle’s ownership to remove the “interim” label and instate Schmetzer as full-time head coach.
Finally, in the second leg of the Western Conference Championship against the Colorado Rapids, Valdez supplied the assist to Morris that sealed the victory and sent his team to the MLS Cup final. I’d guess the Sounders supporters think he’s a pretty OK guy at the moment.
Toronto FC best Montreal in thriller
Toronto dispatched the Philadelphia Union in the knockout round, 3-1. They met NYCFC in the Eastern Conference semis and proceeded to rip them to shreds. The series ended 7-0 on aggregate, providing some solace to New York Red Bulls fans after the club lost their semifinal matchup with Montreal.
And then, in a universe all its own, there was the Eastern Conference finals. The first leg in Montreal ended 3-2 in favor of the Impact. The second leg was arguably the best MLS playoff game ever.
Dominic Oduro scored for Montreal in the 24th minute, giving his side a two goal cushion on aggregate while at the same time securing a valuable away goal. That could very well have ended the series, and in many cases would have, but TFC, seemingly fueled by the memory of old heartbreaks, thought otherwise. Armando Cooper and Altidore scored in quick succession before halftime to bring Toronto level on aggregate and in the lead on away goals.
But eight minutes after the restart, TFC were once again faced with elimination as Ignacio Piatti found the back of the net for Montreal. And, yet again, the Reds found a way to keep hope alive, scoring through defender Nick Hagglund in the 68th minute. We were all level on aggregate, 5-5. Both clubs had two away goals. Extra time.
It turned out TFC only needed the first half of extra time as substitute Benoit Cheyrou, who replaced a limping Sebastian Giovinco, headed a Steven Beitashour cross past Evan Bush, sending the crowd into hysterics.
Toronto sealed the deal in the 100th minute, when Altidore manufactured a chance out of nothing, skinning a defender with a sublime turn before delivering a low, perfectly-placed cross that Tosaint Ricketts tucked away with a sliding finish. That was that, 7-5.
The final
Seattle Sounders key player: Jordan Morris
The streaking Valdez and the consistently dangerous Lodeiro will both be very important to the outcome of the final, but this feels like Morris’ time to grab the spotlight. The Seattle native has already received plenty of attention, especially among USMNT fans: He scored his first international goal, against Mexico no less, while still a member of the Stanford men’s soccer team and has been a national team mainstay ever since.
The MLS Rookie of the Year led the Sounders with 12 goals (six were game-winners) on the season, but he had been in a late-season slump until his series-icing goal against Colorado. Morris can be effective as a striker, but Schmetzer prefers to use him on the wings, opposite Lodeiro, taking full advantage of his pace and strength. His passing continues to improve to go along with his already excellent finishing. If Seattle’s defense can hold on against the TFC onslaught, Morris should have chances against Toronto’s backline.
Don’t expect Toronto to change their 3-5-2 formation in order to counteract Morris (they will also have to worry about Lodeiro on the other wing), but their wing backs — Beitashour and Justin Morrow — will need to choose when to bomb forward in attack carefully. If Morris gets passed the midfield on a counter attack, one of the outside center backs will need to cut out the move. Eriq Zavaleta and Nick Hagglund are good at their jobs, but the speedy Morris will like his chances in any one-on-one matchups against them.
Toronto FC key player: Jozy Altidore
There isn’t a player more important to his team’s success than Giovinco is to Toronto’s. His last two MLS seasons’ stat lines are absurd: 22 goals and 16 assists in 33 games during the 2015 season; 17 goals and 15 assists this season. With service from two very good wing backs and Michael Bradley pulling strings, Gio has flourished. But we, and more importantly Seattle, already know that.
And so the question is which of Toronto’s other players is going to be most important in ensuring Giovinco has a good game. The answer, based on the second half of the season and the playoffs, is Altidore.
Altidore is in his best club form since that one crazy season in Holland when he scored 23 goals for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. (Well, it wasn’t actually just one season; he scored 22 goals the year before.) He’s scored a goal in five straight playoff matches — also known as every playoff match TFC have played this season — and there’s little reason to think that won’t continue in the final.
Altidore is playing with confidence and poise. He’s using his powerful frame to hold the ball up and wait for his teammates, mostly Gio, to make runs off him. He’s using his footwork to create space for shots and to set up goals. If Jozy plays up to his current form, Toronto will feel pretty good about their chances of lifting the MLS Cup.
Seattle’s Roman Torres and Chad Marshall make up one of the top center-back pairings in MLS. They will be tasked with containing a player that possesses a combination of power and skill they don’t often see in this league. And then there’s the fact Gio, that little goal machine, will be buzzing around all over the place. If any back line is up to this task, it’s Seattle’s. Still, expect Altidore to get loose and create a couple clear shots on goal, for himself or others.
Prediction: Toronto FC 3-2 Seattle Sounders
This match will be a clash of styles as Toronto’s attack-minded 3-5-2 slams into Seattle’s more defensive 4-2-3-1. If TFC score first, the game should open up quite a bit; the Sounders will be forced to surge forward and take risks, coming out of their defensive shell. If it’s Seattle who strike first, expect them to hunker down, absorbing as many of Toronto’s attacking waves as they can without breaking.
Toronto have the decided advantage of playing the final at home. BMO Field has been a fortress for the Reds; they only lost three matches there all season. In the end, this could make the difference. There will surely be goals in this one, but TFC will contain Lodeiro and Morris enough. Although Seattle have flourished as the underdog the entire postseason, Toronto’s searing attack will prove too much for them to handle. Toronto FC will be your 2016 MLS Champions.