NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 8
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 39 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.4 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
John Wall ($9,800) Coming off a monster 70.8 FanDuel performance his last time out, John Wall steps into one of the best match-ups a point guard could ask for with a date against the Denver Nuggets.
Normally after a big game like that I would love to fade and let others chase the points, but the spot here on a small slate is way too good to fade the best point guard option tonight. The Nuggets are 29th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s and are playing the tail end of a back to back while Wall comes in fresh after having Wednesday off.
Right now we do not have a total or line on Golden State/Utah with Steve Kerr potentially resting playing so the Wizards start the day with the highest team total on the slate at 111.8 which is a whopping 8 points higher than their season average. The Wizards also see one of the biggest pace boosts on the day so simply lock in the Wizards star as your first PG in all formats tonight and sit back and count the points as they roll in!
Tim Frazier ($4,900) From a roster construction perspective, tonight feels like a Stars/Scrubs night for me and there is a ton of value that should open up throughout the day. You will notice I have not selected a single Golden State player in my lineup as we are awaiting news on what players may rest but there are other spots we need to keep an eye on as well.
Jrue Holiday missed the last game for New Orleans and is questionable again tonight which should set Tim Frazier up with another starting assignment. In his last game as the starter, Frazier played 39 minutes and racked up 28.3 FanDuel points which exceeds 5.7x value at this price point. Considering that Philadelphia is ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing PG’s, this is a favorable spot for Frazier assuming he gets the start again.
If Holiday does return, an easy pivot in the same roster construction is to play Sergio Rodriguez ($4,900) who will continue to run the point for Philly with Jerryd Bayless out with injury. Although Sergio put up a dud his last game out, he had eclipsed 30+ FanDuel points in his previous two games so this is a spot where if you are running multiple lineups, you can mix and match Frazier/Sergio at the same price point within the same overall roster construction!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Bradley Beal ($6,800) For all the same reasons I want John Wall in this spot, I am locking in Bradley Beal tonight as well. As I mentioned, the Wizards have the highest team total and see a pace increase against a Nuggets team that is dead last in DvP to opposing SG’s this season!
With the Wizards installed as only 5.5 point favorites we should see the Wizards starters get a full complement of minutes and easily reach/exceed value in this spot. The price point on Beal has gotten to a point that may keep some off of him, but I will look to employ a Wizards back-court stack tonight in all formats.
Buddy Hield ($3,600) With E’Twuan Moore out last game, Hield entered the starting lineup for New Orleans and played only 24 minutes while racking up 13.9 FanDuel points. Hield struggled and gave most of the meaningful run to Langston Galloway ($3,900) who played 36 minutes and scored 29.2 FanDuel points.
If Moore is out again, the Pelicans SG’s are a great way to attack the Stars/Scrubs approach and I expect most will chase Galloway’s game which could leave Hield under owned. At this price point, Hield only needs 21 FanDuel points to hit 6x value, a target he hit in only 15 minutes of action in his previous game so the GPP upside is there as is the risk!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Gordon Hayward ($8,100) The Golden State-Utah game is not one I am actively looking to target early on in the day from the Warriors side due to the potential rest concerns of their star players but this does not mean we should shy away from the Utah side.
With George Hill and Rodney Hood already ruled out, Hayward is going to be the entire Jazz offense and will see a massive usage increase. The Jazz see the biggest pace bump on the slate and Hayward will be the primary scoring option for Utah tonight with so many players out of the lineup!
Hayward continues to play massive minutes for the Jazz and has eclipsed 45+ FanDuel points in three of his last five game. The upside at this price point is tremendous and I will look to get exposure to Hayward in all formats for just over $8k.
UPDATE: Hayward has been ruled OUT for tonight. With the Jazz now without George Hill, Rodney Hood AND Gordon Hayward, this should be a a lopsided affair against the Warriors. This news solidifies Joe Johnson as a great value play as he is going to be hoisting up shots left and right. You can easily pivot to Kawhi Leonard ($8,100) at the same price point and keep your roster construction as is.
One additional path would be to drop down to Otto Porter ($6,000) and full on stack the Wizards in this spot and use the savings to pay up from Buddy Hield and grab Will Barton at $5,700.
Joe Johnson ($3,600) With Rodney Hood already ruled out tonight, Iso Joe is set for major run as a primary scoring option for Utah. Johnson is a scoring dependent GPP play but he seems like a lock tonight for double-digit shot attempts so the upside here is real in a pace up game against the Warriors.
Listen, nobody feels good about rostering Joe Johnson. It’s like riding a moped, you don’t want your friends to find out. However on a Stars/Scrubs kinda night, I am looking for players with guaranteed minutes and with so many Jazz players ruled out, Johnson is in a prime spot to exceed value on FanDuel.
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($12,100) The price point on The Brow makes him by FAR the highest priced player tonight but can we really afford to fade him? We have a short slate tonight and the Warriors stars may be rested/get limited minutes in a potential blow-out against a short-handed Jazz team so if AD goes off for 60 and you don’t have him, how do you expect to catch the field?
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The play here is more about strategy than anything as I understand it will be hard for AD to reach 6x value at this price but I am looking at a player who has exceeded 60+ FanDuel points in 4 of his last 7 games. The Brow has the highest ceiling on this slate and with so many other question marks, I am happy to lock in the “safety” that comes with Davis tonight (cue him leaving 5 minutes into the game with an injury…).
Dario Saric ($4,500) With the Sixers continuing to be short-handed, Saric has responded with some of his best basketball of the season and makes for a great value play on this slate! Saric has now posted three straight games with 25 minutes and 25+ FanDuel points and should continue to see 25-28 minutes of action for Philadelphia tonight. New Orleans has struggled all year to contain PF’s and SF’s and with Saric getting additional run at the wing, this is a match-up that Saric should be able to exploit!
Joel Embiid ($6,600) The price point is slowly creeping up on FanDuel but as long as it sits under $7k, The Process is going to be an easy play each and every night. Center is actually a relatively weak position tonight and Embiid allows you to lock in a salary saving play while still targeting his massive GPP upside.
Best of luck in your NBA FanDuel contests tonight! Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day foir late breaking roster news and lineup updates!