Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 41 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with ten games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($9,500) The Saturday night slate is an interesting one as the top 4 projected scoring teams are also favored by double-digit points which means we have blow out risk in all those spots.
Perhaps the best game of the night to target is between Portland and Indiana which has the highest combined team total (216) and with a 1 point Vegas spread we should see a full run of minutes for the key players on each team.
Lillard sits at a price point just below the high-end stars but may have one of the highest ceilings of the night in this spot. Portland will see an uptick in pace in this game and in this same match-up just a few games ago, Lillard dropped 56 FanDuel points against Indiana. Lock him in again tonight!
Shelvin Mack ($4,000) George Hill has already been ruled out in this game which sets Mack up to be another top end value play on this slate. In his last game, Mack dropped 31.9 FanDuel points and has played 30+ minutes in three straight games.
There are a few spots tonight I am looking to pay up for so locking in a $4k play that is playing 30+ minutes will free up a ton of cap space tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Evan Fournier ($5,300) The Magic are not a team I typically look to target but tonight against the Nuggets, this is a spot we can look to utilize some of their key players. The Magic see one of the biggest pace increases on the slate and are projected to score 7 points more than their season average.
The Nuggets are giving up the most points to opposing SG’s on the season which sets up perfectly for a Fournier revenge game against his old team! The Magic may be without Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo who both got hurt on Friday Night which would force the Magic to play small and lean heavily on Fournier to run the offense!
Buddy Hield ($3,500) Yeah I am going back to the well here even though he burned me last time out! Hield should continue to start for New Orleans with Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore likely out again which should guarantee that Hield plays major minutes in this one!
In his last game as the starter, Hield played a whopping 34 minutes but was only able to put up 12.8 FanDuel points. Keep in mind however the disappointing output was a result of a brutal 2-12 shooting performance so considering the minutes and double-digit shot opportunities this is a spot we can go back to on this slate for minimum price!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($8,400) Heading back to the Portland/Indiana game, Paul George may be one of my favorite plays on this slate! Portland struggles to defend wing players and George is priced way too low for his talent level so we can lock in a player with 50+ point upside at a reasonable price point.
Since he returned from injury, George is playing 30+ minutes a night and has eclipsed 30+ FanDuel points in each outing which gives him a relatively safe cash game floor. The Pacers see one of the biggest pace increases on the slate and are projected to score 4 more points than their season average which provides an environment for upside in this spot for PG13!
Gordon Hayward ($8,100) Hayward should return from a one game injury that kept him out of action in the Jazz last game and this is a spot I want to head back to one of the most consistent DFS performers.
With George Hill out of action, the offense has been running through Hayward who has put up 35+ FanDuel points in eight straight games. Hayward has topped 45 FanDuel points in three of his last five games so the upside is clearly there and with the increased usage due to injury, this is a spot where Hayward should continue to excel!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Jabari Parker ($6,400) The Bucks-Wizards is another under the radar game we can target tonight and Parker may have the best match-up against a Washington team that is 23rd in DvP to opposing PF’s.
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Parker is locked into 30+ minutes a night and has exceeded 30 FanDuel points in each of his last four games which gives him a safe cash game floor. In his last game, Parker dropped 41 FanDuel points on Atlanta which would exceed 6x value at this price point and he is in a match-up tonight that gives him similar upside.
Boris Diaw ($3,600) Diaw is not someone I have rostered often this season, but we have to consider some bargain options if we want to pay up for the studs tonight! Diaw continues to start at PF for the Jazz and gets an elite match-up tonight facing a Sacramento team that is 25th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s.
Diaw is averaging 19.5 FanDuel points over his last three games which would exceed 5.6x value at this price point.
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200) The one top end super star I am looking to pay up for tonight is Boogie Cousins who has now exceeded 50+ FanDuel points in eight straight games.
The match-up against the Jazz may be one that will scare off some, but this is a spot that Boogie has dominated in the past. Last season, Cousins averaged 30 points and 13 rebounds and 53 FanDuel points per game against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. I see no reason to fade Cousins tonight as his 50-60 point nightly outings is a key to hitting the cash line each night in DFS!
Good luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates.