Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 42 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Sunday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 6:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,600) The first question you have to ask yourself tonight is whether you plan on rostering Westbrook at point guard. The statistics speak for themselves, the man is averaging a triple double this season and he plays at a speed and with intensity that no other player can match. From a DFS perspective, playing the fade on a short slate like tonight is absolutely terrifying and I believe he is worth the investment tonight.
On the surface, the Celtics have been a tough match-up on the season to opposing PG’s but with Isaiah Thomas out again on Sunday, Marcus Smart will continue to draw the start. In the last game with Smart at the point, Kyle Lowry dropped 34 points, 7 assists and a 50+ FanDuel point outing. Vegas expects this game to stay close (4 point spread) so I expect Westbrook to flirt with 60+ tonight and although the price is high, he is the unquestioned top play on this slate!
Stephen Curry ($9,300) If you are playing Westbrook on this slate, I expect most will look to go with a high-low strategy at the point and lock in one of the top value plays in either Tim Frazier or Marcus Smart for under $5k.
One potential pivot to that strategy would be to pay up at both PG’s spots and lock in both Westbrook and Stephen Curry. The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate against Minnesota and Curry gets to face a team he dropped 50+ FanDuel points against in their last match-up.
The Wolves are 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s, clearly the best spot to attack this team and Curry should be in a great position to feast here. I expect most gamers will be looking to choose between Westbrook or Curry tonight, so why not lock in both and find value elsewhere?
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Lou Williams ($6,300) Shooting guards against the Knicks has been a profitable strategy all year and Williams has been a GPP monster in recent weeks so this is a great spot to target him tonight!
With Nick Young already ruled out and D’Angelo Russell a GTD, Williams should continue to get major run for the Lakers and faces a Knicks team that is 27th in DvP to opposing SG’s. Williams has eclipsed 44 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and although the price has spiked, the upside here is real from a GPP perspective!
Buddy Hield ($3,700) Maybe it is the Christmas season and the fact that my kids have watched Elf roughly 4,358 times, but I find myself locking in Buddy each night in DFS. With Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore out, Hield has stepped into the starting lineup for the Pelicans and has played 35 minutes a night in his last two games as the starter.
At this price point, Hield only needs 22 FanDuel points to exceed 6x value and in his last game against a tough Clippers team he was able to drop 24 FanDuel points backed by 15 ponts, 5 assists and 3 rebounds.
The Pelicans are in a great spot tonight as they see the biggest pace increase of any team on the slate in an up-tempo game against a Suns team that struggles to contain opposing back-courts. If you are looking for savings, the Pelicans back-court is an ideal spot to target!
NBA FanDuel -Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($7,700) The Knicks have the second highest team total on the slate and are projected to score over 5 points more than their season average in this game against the Lakers. The question tonight will be whether to roster Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis as both players sit at similar price points and the flow of the Knicks offense makes this an either/or proposition as they rarely effective as a stacking combination.
To me, Melo is the elite play here at a weak SF position against a Lakers team that is 26th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season. Anthony has a 29.2% true usage rate which is by far the highest of any SF on the slate and with the expected return of Derrick Rose, it should open up more open looks for Anthony.
Brandon Ingram ($4,400) If you read this column regularly, you will know that Ingram is one of my favorite value DFS picks and with a rough slate at SF, he makes for a great way to save salary while locking in a player that continues to play major minutes.
Ingram has played 30 minutes in five of his last six games with Nick Young and D’Angelo Russell out of the lineup. Young has already been ruled out and Russell is a GTD so this is an injury to keep an eye on as if the PG sits again it would continue to lock Ingram in to major minutes at both the PG and wing spots for the Lakers.
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forwards and Center Picks
Richaun Holmes ($4,000) Power forward is a spot I am looking to save salary at tonight to I can spend up elsewhere and Holmes will continue to be a great point per dollar play for the Sixers. With Joel Embiid already ruled out, Holmes should continue to carve out consistent minutes even with the return of Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel.
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Holmes has averaged 24.4 FanDuel points over the last three games which would exceed 6x value at this price point. Holmes is a great value play due to his ability to contribute across multiple categories as he has averaged 7 rebounds and over 2 blocks per game as a key cog in the Philly rotation.
Jared Dudley ($3,600) The Suns take on a New Orleans team that is 28th in DvP to opposing PF’s and Dudley remains a valuable bench player for the Suns that gets consistent run each night. Dudley has played 25+ minutes in four of his last five games and has hit 5x value in three of those five. If you are looking to save salary tonight, Dudley is actually a “safe” cash game option with GPP upside in this match-up.
Andre Drummond ($8,400) The center spot is a great place to pay up for on this slate and without Joel Embiid, I love the idea of targeting Drummond against the Sixers. Drummond has back to back 20/20 games and the Pistons are projected to score the third most points on this slate, a 7 point increase over their season average.
I expect most will look to pay up and lock in Karl-Anthony Towns at $300 more, but I am happy to target a player who has put up 50+ FanDuel points over his last two games and faces a team without their best interior defender!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel lineups and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter as we share the latest roster news and lineup updates!