Braves Freddie Freeman Power Surge: Can We Trust him in 2017?

By Brad Kelly | Dec 14, 2016

Sep 5, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) hits an RBI single against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

Freedie Freeman quietly had a career year for the Braves in 2016. After posting career best power numbers, can fantasy owners trust him heading into 2017?

One of the best parts of MLB is that there are star players in every town, and on every team. While the big money markets often dictate which stars who are seen the most, and who are rarely heard of, the fact does not change that talent is abundant across the league. Fantasy owners know very well who Freddie Freeman is. He has been a fantasy mainstay for the Braves over the last handful of seasons. But, just how many of us realized that the he had a career year in 2016?

It served as the quietest .302/34 HR/91 RBI/6 SB/102 R/.968 OPS season in MLB and it was surprising to see his monster season fly under the radar as much as it has. Playing for the rebuilding Braves certainly does not help in media coverage, but those owners who had Freeman last season were well rewarded. But, can fantasy owners trust him as a 30+ HR threat heading into 2017?

It is first important to note that, Freeman’s floor is still rock solid and outside of an injury, he will remain a great mid-round value. However, if he starts to flirt with HR totals in the 30s, owners now have to value him as an early rounder again. Whenever an established player like Freeman sees a 11 HR uptick from his career high in one season, it immediately forces fantasy owners to delve into what changed in his game.

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By looking at Freeman’s batted ball and plate approach data, Freeman clearly showed changes in three areas. The clearest improvement was that he simply hit the ball harder last season.

He posted a 29% line drive, 44% medium contact, and a 44% hard contact rate. Those are impressive levels of contact. Add the fact that he cut his ground ball rate by 6%, and increased his fly abll rate to 41%, and owners can now see why he was able to blast 34 HR.

The second area he improved, was that he got back to spraying the ball all over the field like he did in his breakout season in 2013. In that season he posted, 36% Pull/38% Center/26% Oppo rates. But, between 2014-2015, his Pull% crept into the 40s, and his Oppo% barely hovered over the 20% mark. He got back to his strength though this season, allowing him to nearly mirror his 2013 outputs by posting , 36% Pull/34% Cent/30% Oppo rates.

Now that owners can see that Freeman was hitting the ball harder and to all parts of the field again, there was also a change in his approach that helped him thrive. Much like Joey Votto, Freeman has a great sense of the strike zone, and uses that skill to boost his OBP. Fantasy owners, and the Braves for that matter, want Freeman to be more aggressive at the plate because he is their one consistent threat. He finally did just that in 2016.

Freeman raised his Swing rate by 3%,up to 53% this season. He also swung nearly 80% of pitches in the strike zone, something he only came close to doing in 2013, and offered at nearly four percent more pitches out of the strike zone. Freeman knew that he lacked protection behind him in the lineup, so he became more aggressive, and got back to attacking pitchers.

With these three improvements in mind, fantasy owners can see why Freeman was able to explode last season. Looking ahead to 2017, Freeman’s value will be higher than ever. Dansby Swanson, and hopefully a full year from Ender Inciarte, should help buoy his counting stats. Matt Kemp batting behind him should help too, as long as Kemp remains a power force.

On top of the 34 HR last season, Freeman notched 43 doubles and three triples, so he was splitting gaps at will. There is also the wrinkle that his new home park, SunTrust Park has smaller dimensions nearly all over field compared to Turner Field, especially in RF, only furthering his chances to repeat his power success.

From a personal standpoint, I stayed away from Freeman last season because of the looming wrist issues. His slow start only furthered that skepticism, but once June came, he was one of the best hitters month in and month out over the rest of the season. Putting to bed those concerns for the foreseeable future.

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Should fantasy owners bank on another 30+ HR season, no. But, he should have no problem staying in the 20-25 HR range, while batting .280+, and it would not be a surprise to see him climb back into the 100+ RBI club in 2017. IF everything goes right his ceiling is sky-high,as in a potential .300/35 HR/110 RBI season, so target him within the first three rounds of fantasy drafts next season, and believe in Fast Freddie.

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