FanDuel NBA – Lucky 7’s – Top Plays for December 14
By Jared Short
FanDuel NBA – Lucky 7’s – Top 7 Plays for December 12
Welcome to FanDuel NBA Luck 7’s where I lay out my top 7 players who are simply intriguing buys for their respective match-ups. The “confidence” ratings in s reflect how risky each player is with “$” being very risky, and “$” being a pick I’m very confident about.
FanDuel NBA – SG: Bradley Beal v. Charlotte $6,900
Pros: Charlotte gives up a higher percentage of opponent points scored from 3 than any other team in the league at 31.5%. Bradley Beal is the Wizards most reliable shooter, averaging more shots from beyond the arc this year than any year of his career at almost 7 attempts a game. Vegas’ odds for the game currently sits at a pick em’ with an O/U of 212.5. Games with high projected totals, and low projected spreads are always where I look at first to invest the most cap in. So in this game, not only is Beal great value but Charlotte at Washington may be a game you look at to stack players on the night.
Cons: John Wall and Otto Porter pose the biggest threat to Beal’s fantasy value on a given night. So if for whatever reason Beal comes out of the gate cold, John and Otto may take it upon themselves to take on more of the offensive responsibility. To me however, Beal in this game for $6.9k is still a player who you have to sink or swim with.
Confidence: $$$$
FanDuel NBA – SG: Sean Kilpatrick v. Los Angeles Lakers $5,300
Pros: Vegas is projecting this game to be the highest on the night with a whopping Over/Under of 228 points. Sean Kilpatrick is the Nets leading scorer behind Brook Lopez right now at 16 points a game, and for $5,300 he only needs 26.5 FDP to get you your money’s worth. With this game obviously projected to be a high-octane shootout, the style of this game doesn’t look like it will cater to Lopez’ game as much as it will Kilpatrick’s. Kilpatrick had an astonishing 38 point, 14 rebound, 2 assist game against the Clippers earlier this season, so that gives you an idea of what his ceiling is.
Cons: If Brooklyn does choose to go through Brook Lopez over Kilpatrick, than his value relative to what you need out of him to win big on the night drops significantly. Even if Kilpatrick chips in a solid 27 point line, I would still consider that a disappointment because there are just so many good buys on the night at SG. Also, Jeremy Lin has made a return after missing his last 17 games so be wary of the threat that he poses to Kilpatrick’s offensive production.
Confidence: $$
FanDuel NBA SG: JR Smith @ Memphis $3,500
Pros: With Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and LeBron James all expected to rest against the Grizzlies, the Cavs are going to have to reach deep for some extra offense and JR Smith is just the man for it. Smith was awesome last night for the $3.5k minimum, cashing in a line of 23 points, 2 assists, and 5 rebounds for 33 FDP. Behind their big 3, JR averages the most field goal attempts per game for Cleveland, so he’s the most common sense pick of any remaining Cav. If you’re at the end of your cap and have an extra SG slot to spare, it’s hard to look past JR and what he can provide your lineup for $3.5k in this game.
Cons: When you consider the explosive game that JR just had, to hop on a plane overnight on a back-to-back and recreate a stat-line like the one he had at home lastnight doesn’t seem entirely plausible. While JR is the lowest hanging fruit of any remaining Cav, it’s hard to determine how much DeAndre Liggins, Kay Felder, and Iman Shumpert will affect him and how often he finds the ball in his hands. It’s entirely possible JR doesn’t get much run in probably one of the few games on the season where Cleveland’s entire big 3 rests and the likes of Shump, Liggins, and Felder feel the need to prove themselves. While there will be a healthy uptick in value for the Cavaliers’ dirt-cheap supporting cast without their big 3, don’t dilute your lineup with too many picks from that game.
Confidence: $$$
FanDuel NBA PF Tobias Harris @ Dallas $5,900
Pros: After Nikola Jokic put up 27 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for $5,600 just 2 days ago against Dallas, Tobias’ similar price at $5,900 at the same position is worth a look. Tobias is a player that is typically the most effective when the pace of the game allows for him to both post up down low or step behind the arc for the occasional 3. With the slog of a team that Dallas is this year, Tobias may be called upon to generate something extra on offense as he’s averaging a career best 17.8 points per 36 minutes. Also with boring of a game and pick as Tobias is, his ownership percentage shouldn’t high at all.
Cons: Detroit has been one of the most frustrating teams to estimate how their match-ups will play out, averaging only 99.1 points a game. The Mavericks also only average a meager 93.5 points a game, so this game is sure to be awfully slow with only so many possessions for the Pistons to work with. With Reggie Jackson back in the fold, there are becoming more and more mouths to feed for the Pistons between him, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, and Marcus Morris. Morris would have to be my next pick if you opt to fade Tobias.
Confidence: $$
FanDuel NBA PF: Ersan Ilyasova v. Toronto $5,600
Pros: I love Ersan in this game against Toronto at home, as Ersan is averaging 37.5 FDP a game over his last 4 games. At his current $5,600 ticket his value reflecting salary is only 28 points. That poses tremendous value, yet is high enough that it should keep his ownership percentage from climbing too high for those who don’t think Ersan is worth that. Philadelphia will need an all-hands-on-deck effort from the lowly Sixers for a shot at taking down the Raptors and their high-tempo offense. Toronto is currently averaging 111 points a game, and Philadelphia is going to have to match their points somehow. Ersan at the moment is averaging 11.2 shots a game behind only Joel Embiid, though I feel like the pace of this game will cater a little more to Ersan’s inside/outside game than Joel’s inside game.
Cons: Like with any shooting specialist, there’s a chance he could go cold for no apparent reason. The Sixers have no established scorer, so players like Gerald Henderson and Robert Covington may get more run if this game picks up in tempo so much that it goes over Ersan’s head. Dario Saric is another player that has a similar game and also plays PF, so if Ilyasova isn’t getting it done right away for Philadelphia, Dario may be called upon to jump in for some effective run off the bench. Keep Saric in mind if you’re not too high on Ersan.
Confidence: $$$
FanDuel NBA PF: Blake Griffin @ Orlando $9,000
Pros: With Orlando’s frontcourt stalwarts Nikola Vucevic nursing a sore back, and Bismack Biyombo at less than 100% with a sore shoulder, Blake Griffin might just find himself in a wonderfully exploited matchup tonight in Orlando. His $9,000 salary tonight also makes his ticket at PF very attractive as he only needs 45 FDP to get you your money’s worth. Orlando is a team that doesn’t average many points at only 96.2 a game which indicates to me, that the pace of the game shouldn’t go over Blake’s head and that he should get plenty of opportunities to be involved on offense. Orlando’s rebounding percentage as a team is only 49.3%, so Blake shouldn’t find himself having too hard of a time in that category.
Cons: If this game gets out of hand quickly, Blake may not see the floor for his usual 33 minute workload (And that’s a distinct possibility, after Orlando’s big game in Atlanta last night). Blake’s auxiliary frontcourt player DeAndre Jordan could snatch many of Blake’s potential rebounds, and potentially emerge as the main beneficiary. However with Jordan’s mediocre production over his last 7 games averaging only 30.7 FDP on a $7,000 ticket, I would still heavily fade him for Blake.
Confidence: $$$$
FanDuel NBA C: Tristan Thompson @ Memphis $5,000
Pros: Tristan’s salary of $5,000 tonight for the amount of playing time he’s sure to get without Love, James, and Irving is solid value. No word yet on whether or not Memphis will rest Zach Randolph tonight or not, but if they do, it would only open up more opportunities for Tristan to grab more boards.
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His match-up tonight at center Marc Gasol, has been incredible this year, yet Thompson is the superior rebounder averaging a career high 12.5 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. Memphis mostly runs their offense down low through Gasol and Randolph, which means Thompson will be where the ball most often is, getting more opportunities to accumulate defensive stats in rebounds maybe a couple of extra points in steals and blocks.
Cons: While it’s highly unlikely Thompson will fall under the mark in value reflecting his salary of 25 FDP, there are plenty of other options at Center tonight that may yield more lucrative numbers. While Randolph sitting tonight is a possibility, it’s only speculation and not likely. Thompson is a great plug at center tonight, but make sure you’re feeling confident about the rest of your lineup as Thompson isn’t a player that I would build around. Look to plug him in only after you’ve made about 4-5 confident picks at your other positions.
Confidence: $$$
Good luck in your FanDuel NBA contests tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR all day on Twitter for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!