NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 15
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 46 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 8:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($9,500) Perhaps my favorite game on the slate tonight takes place in Denver as the Blazers and Nuggets have the second highest combined team total (220) on the slate and a 1.5 Vegas spread so we should get a full game of fantasy production from the stars here.
Lillard is my top play on this slate and all you need to do is look at his numbers against Denver to understand why. In two games this season against the Nuggets, Lillard is averaging 34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 3 steals while putting up 57.6 and 54.5 FanDuel points.
The Nuggets are 28th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s and Lillard has absolutely abused this match-up already this season. I am locking Dame into every one of my lineups tonight and will take his massive upside for under $10k on FanDuel.
Jrue Holiday ($7,100) With Tim Frazier ruled out tonight for the Pelicans tonight, Holiday is going to get all the run he can handle and in an up-tempo game against a Pacers team that presents a favorable match-up to opposing back courts, this is an ideal spot to roster Jrue.
Holiday has been very steady since his return from injury and over his last two games has averaged 35 minutes a night while racking up 34 FanDuel points per contest. The floor is very safe here in this spot but the absence of Frazier presents some significant GPP upside. The Pelicans see an uptick tonight in both points and projected points scored and if you are not rostering Anthony Davis, getting exposure to their primary ball-handler is a nice strategic pivot.
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks
C.J. McCollum ($7,400) Heading back to Portland, I am looking to employ a full on guard stack against the Nuggets tonight in an effort to exploit their biggest weakness.
The Nuggets are ranked 28th in DvP to opposing PG’s and 30th in DvP to opposing SG’s and with the Blazers offense concentrated to their two guards, this sets up perfectly for some big time FanDuel performances!
McCollum has already had success against the Nuggets this season with 49.5 FanDuel points and 32.6 FanDuel points so we can see the clear safety in his floor and his 50 point upside in the right match-up.
If you are looking to pay up tonight for Giannis Antetokounmpo at $9,900 keep in mind that against the Bulls last year he had significant home/road splits. In their two home match-ups last season Giannis averaged 53 FanDuel points per game but at Chicago, The Greek Freak was only able to put up 38 and 39.4 FanDuel points. With tonight’s game in Milwaukee, he makes for an ideal pay up spot if you want to pivot off McCollum and spend all the way up at SG.
Langston Galloway ($4,100) The absence of Tim Frazier on this slate not only should help Jrue Holiday but it should also mean extended run for the Pelicans bench guards and I expect Galloway to be the biggest beneficiary tonight.
Even with Frazier in the lineup, Galloway has played at least 28 minutes in four of his last five games and with Frazier missing tonight we could see 30+ minutes of run at an extremely valuable price. The Pacers are 23rd in DvP to opposing SG’s on the season so this is a highly favorable match-up and a great way to save salary tonight!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($9,000) With Kevin Durant priced only $700 more than Butler, I expect Butler to be slightly overlooked tonight but this match-up with the Bucks is one we should look to exploit tonight.
Last season against Milwaukee, Butler put up 45, 46 and 49 FanDuel points in the three meetings against the Bucks and is coming into this game in great form. Butler has eclipsed 50 FanDuel points in each of his last two games and facing a Bucks team that is 28th in DvP to opposing SF this season makes him and lock and load play for me on this slate!
Glenn Robinson III ($4,400) With Monta Ellis out for Indiana, Robinson has been confirms as the starting SG for the Pacers for at least the next three games. Any time we can target a starter for a bargain price on FanDuel it allows us to allocate salary to the big name stars on the slate and Robinson is a great way to do just that.
Robinson has not made much of his first two games as starter for Indiana, racking up 13 and 21 FanDuel points so I expect most will gloss over him for “newer value” but without Ellis and with Rodney Stuckey re-aggravating his hamstring injury on Tuesday, it should open up even more opportunities tonight for Robinson!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($6,000) This Portland-Denver game sets up perfectly tonight from a DFS perspective and Jokic is going to be a key part of my mini game stack. As noted, the Nuggets are awful at stopping opposing guards which bodes well for the Portland superstar back-court. Portland on the other hand struggles to contain opposing big men which sets up perfectly for Nikola Jokic to continue his recent stellar play.
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Jokic is averaging 36.2 FanDuel points over his last four games which includes three games with double-digit rebounds. Mike Malone is FINALLY committing to playing Jokic more and at this price point and in this match-up we could be looking at a massive stat line. Jokic is coming off a 47 FanDuel point performance in his last game and earlier this season against Portland he was able to drop a 55 FanDuel point game on the back of 23 points and 17 rebounds. The upside is massive tonight and Jokic will be in every single one of my lineups!
Jabari Parker ($6,300) Although we are looking to fade Giannis tonight, that does not mean we are avoiding the Bucks entirely and Jabari becomes my preferred way to get exposure to Milwaukee tonight.
The best place to attack Chicago is in the front court as they are ranked 22nd in DvP tp opposing PF’s and 21st to opposing Centers so Parker should be able to put up solid numbers tonight. Parker has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in six of his last seven games so the floor is very safe here and Parker has been able to hit 6x+ value in two of his last five games which puts him in play for GPP’s as well!
Myles Turner ($6,200) Center is UGLY tonight and with Turner being the highest priced option, it makes sense to lock in the safety of the slates best option and let others take risks that will likely put them significantly behind the field.
The Pelicans allow the 26th most fantasy points to opposing teams and outside of SF, present a favorable match-up at every other spot in the lineup! Turner is playing well lately as he is averaging 35.3 FanDuel points so although there is not massive upside here (and foul trouble risk against AD), Turner is a relatively safe option that should be the highest scoring option at his position!
Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the latest lineup news and roster updates!